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Tarefa crb_papers.q028

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1

Veredito

falhouDecidida pela verificação 1: figura da resposta próxima, nenhuma estimativa citada.
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

Pergunta feita ao analista

Among municipalities that switched to council decision-making in 2006, how large was the change in the ordinary naturalization rate from 2005 to 2007 compared with municipalities still using citizen referendums in 2007?

Resposta

Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q028.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 28 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['28'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 28: effect 1.23663, standard_error 0.618976
Valor como publicado
1.236634786812406
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.6189762112257445
Valor
1,236631.236634786812406 (se 0,6189760.6189762112257445)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: 1,236631.236634786812406 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 6.189762112257445e-7
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,6189760.6189762112257445 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 6.189762112257445e-7

crb_papers.q028.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 28
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/DiD/Hainmueller_Hangartner_2019/question_1/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 1944 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
2d3188b38fb50425ba19bdf98f85aac37b750215451fd0a6449887a1455e85c8 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Hainmueller_Hangartner_2019/question_1/estimation.py
Licença
MIT

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    obrigatóriafalhou[0.023441412809946716,2.449828160814865]—interval · [0.023441412809946716, 2.449828160814865]——
    2figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou1,236631.236634786812406—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 6.189762112257445e-7crb_papers.q028.gold—
    3figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,6189760.6189762112257445—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 6.189762112257445e-7crb_papers.q028.gold—

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.olsO agente não fez uma chamada de estimação que a resposta cite.

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      Among municipalities that switched to council decision-making in 2006, how large was the change in the ordinary naturalization rate from 2005 to 2007 compared with municipalities still using citizen referendums in 2007?

      ds_0015 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | bfs | Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS) municipality code: a stable numeric identifier for each municipality in the panel. | | year | Calendar year of the observation (1991–2009). Institutional status is referenced as of January 1 of the given year, and annual rates are computed for the same year. | | nat_rate_ord | Ordinary naturalization rate (percent). Computed as the number of ordinary naturalizations recorded during the year divided by the stock of foreign residents who met statutory eligibility at the start of the year in the same municipality, multiplied by 100. Ordinary naturalizations refer to the standard pathway (as opposed to federally handled “facilitated” cases). | | indirect | Local decision procedure in place on January 1: 1 if applications were decided by the elected municipal council (representative/indirect democracy); 0 if applications were decided by citizens in a local vote (direct democracy). | Dataset Context: This dataset is an annual municipality–year panel for Switzerland that spans a period of institutional change in how local authorities decide on citizenship applications. Switzerland’s “triple citizenship” system assigns a central role to municipalities in evaluating and deciding ordinary naturalization requests. During the 1990s and 2000s, municipalities used different decision procedures: in some, citizens voted on applications (often at a citizens’ assembly and, historically in a few places, by ballot); in others, elected municipal councils rendered the decisions. A series of Swiss Federal Court rulings in 2003–2005 curtailed secret-ballot referendums for naturalizations and required municipalities to provide formal justifications for rejections. Several cantons subsequently updated their laws, and many municipalities revised or formalized their procedures, frequently shifting decision authority to municipal councils. The indicator in this file captures, for each municipality and year, which procedure was in force as of January 1. The panel combines two types of information. First, administrative registers from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (PETRA: Foreign Population Structure and Migration Statistics) are used to derive annual ordinary naturalization rates. These rates are constructed as ordinary naturalizations completed within a year divided by the number of foreign residents who met the legal eligibility criteria at the start of that year, providing a comparable percentage measure across municipalities and over time. Second, the coding of local decision procedures relies on a nationwide survey of municipal head secretaries and systematic compilation of cantonal regulations and court decisions. The measurement convention aligns the institutional status to January 1 to enhance comparability across municipalities, recognizing that formal switches may occur during a calendar year. Ordinary naturalizations represent the standard route to citizenship and, in the study period, typically occurred after lengthy processing that could extend several years from initial application to final local vote. Facilitated naturalizations—handled centrally under federal law (for example, for certain spouses of Swiss citizens)—are not included in the numerator of the ordinary naturalization rate. The resulting dataset provides a consistent view of local institutions and annual naturalization activity across more than a decade and a half, covering the pre- and post-reform environment in which many municipalities updated their decision-making arrangements.

      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      ref_first (reference)
      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      3. filter {"query":"indirect == 1"}
      4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"sw"}],"by":["bfs"]}
      ref_panel (reference)
      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      3. filter {"query":"year in [2005, 2007]"}
      4. merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_first"}
      5. merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_years"}
      6. filter {"query":"nyears == 2 and (sw == 2006 or sw > 2007 or sw != sw)"}
      7. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"sw","value":2006},"name":"group_treated","op":"indicator"}
      8. derive {"args":{"column":"group_treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"group_treated","op":"map"}
      9. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2007},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}
      10. derive {"args":{"columns":["group_treated","post"]},"name":"g_post","op":"interaction"}
      ref_years (reference)
      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      3. filter {"query":"year in [2005, 2007]"}
      4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"nat_rate_ord","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["bfs","year"]}
      5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["bfs"]}
    2. 1Turno do modelo
      call_e6a4c148rules-1Fim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": []
        }
    3. 2Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      —
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    4. 3Resposta

      Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

      Figuras citadas: — · Parada: answered
    5. 4Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    6. 5Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatóriano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    7. 6Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    8. 7Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

    Épocas × verificações

    Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
    #0123
    Época 1passoufalhoufalhoufalhou

    Tentativas

    Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

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