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Tarefa crb_papers.q061

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1

Veredito

falhouDecidida pela verificação 1: figura da resposta próxima, nenhuma estimativa citada.
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

Pergunta feita ao analista

Did Zhejiang counties historically classified as marginal-faction counties experience larger growth in the non-state (collective and private) share of industrial output from 1965 to 1978 than dominant-faction counties?

Resposta

Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q061.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 61 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['61'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 61: effect 0.115274, standard_error 0.0618361
Valor como publicado
0.11527391703742929
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.06183612726843541
Valor
0,1152740.11527391703742929 (se 0,06183610.06183612726843541)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: 0,1152740.11527391703742929 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 6.18361272684354e-8
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,06183610.06183612726843541 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 6.18361272684354e-8

crb_papers.q061.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 61
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/DiD/Zhang_etal_2021/question_1/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 1074 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
9c02ab8722967eb644f44aa35fa48c0aa6bfbaf71fda30dc60bd50557e2a2901 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Zhang_etal_2021/question_1/estimation.py
Licença
MIT

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    obrigatóriafalhou[-0.005924892408704113,0.23647272648356268]—interval · [-0.005924892408704113, 0.23647272648356268]——
    2figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,1152740.11527391703742929—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 6.18361272684354e-8crb_papers.q061.gold—
    3figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,06183610.06183612726843541—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 6.18361272684354e-8crb_papers.q061.gold—

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.olsO agente não fez uma chamada de estimação que a resposta cite.

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      Did Zhejiang counties historically classified as marginal-faction counties experience larger growth in the non-state (collective and private) share of industrial output from 1965 to 1978 than dominant-faction counties?

      ds_0032 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | countyid | Numeric identifier for a county in Zhejiang province, China. The same identifier links its observations across years. | | year | Calendar year. The file contains rows for 1952, 1957, 1965, 1978, and 1998. The nonsoe outcome is observed only in 1965, 1978, and 1998. | | nonsoe | Share of county industrial output produced by collective and private firms, on a 0–1 scale. Calculated as total industrial output minus state-owned industrial output, divided by total industrial output. | | mfc1978 | Indicator equal to 1 for a historically classified marginal-faction county in 1978, and 0 otherwise. This column combines the county's historical classification with the year being 1978; its zeros in other years do not mean that the historical classification changed. | | mfc1998 | Indicator equal to 1 for a historically classified marginal-faction county in 1998, and 0 otherwise. This column combines the same historical county classification with the year being 1998. | Dataset Context: This extract contains 61 counties in Zhejiang province, with 305 county-year rows. Industrial statistics were compiled from provincial statistical records. The non-state sector includes collective and private firms. Non-state industrial-output shares are unavailable in the file for 1952 and 1957; the numbers of counties with observed shares are 52 in 1965, 53 in 1978, and 61 in 1998. Reporting was disrupted during the Cultural Revolution, so the observations are benchmark years rather than a continuous annual series. Historical county classifications were constructed from organizational histories and county gazetteers. In Zhejiang, counties maintaining independent guerrilla forces during 1945–1948 were classified as marginal-faction counties, reflecting the subsequent marginalization of those local political elites within the provincial power structure. Other counties form the dominant-faction category. This historical classification is constant for a county; 1978 and 1998 in the two column names identify observation years, not dates when the classification was introduced. The county-level classification can be recovered from either column's value in its named year.

      file 6eede5a4f1540d2b6513ec2483909477a548f32e838e4e0bb0a385ab6edde649 · frame —
      ref_panel (reference)
      file 6eede5a4f1540d2b6513ec2483909477a548f32e838e4e0bb0a385ab6edde649 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe","mfc1978"]}
      2. filter {"query":"year in [1965, 1978]"}
      3. dropna {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe"]}
      4. filter {"query":"year == 1965"}
      5. rename {"map":{"nonsoe":"y_pre"}}
      6. select {"columns":["countyid","y_pre"]}
      7. merge {"how":"inner","on":["countyid"],"with":"ref_post"}
      8. merge {"how":"inner","on":["countyid"],"with":"ref_treat"}
      9. derive {"args":{"left":"y_post","right":"y_pre"},"name":"delta","op":"diff"}
      ref_post (reference)
      file 6eede5a4f1540d2b6513ec2483909477a548f32e838e4e0bb0a385ab6edde649 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe","mfc1978"]}
      2. filter {"query":"year in [1965, 1978]"}
      3. dropna {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe"]}
      4. filter {"query":"year == 1978"}
      5. rename {"map":{"nonsoe":"y_post"}}
      6. select {"columns":["countyid","y_post"]}
      ref_treat (reference)
      file 6eede5a4f1540d2b6513ec2483909477a548f32e838e4e0bb0a385ab6edde649 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe","mfc1978"]}
      2. filter {"query":"year in [1965, 1978]"}
      3. dropna {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe"]}
      4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"mfc1978","fn":"max","name":"treated"}],"by":["countyid"]}
    2. 1Turno do modelo
      call_e575112arules-1Fim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": []
        }
    3. 2Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      —
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    4. 3Resposta

      Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

      Figuras citadas: — · Parada: answered
    5. 4Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    6. 5Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatóriano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    7. 6Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    8. 7Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

    Épocas × verificações

    Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
    #0123
    Época 1passoufalhoufalhoufalhou

    Tentativas

    Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

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