Pular para o conteúdo

Tarefa crb_papers.q062

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1

Veredito

falhouDecidida pela verificação 1: figura da resposta próxima, nenhuma estimativa citada.
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

Pergunta feita ao analista

Did Zhejiang counties historically classified as marginal-faction counties experience larger increases in the non-state (collective and private) share of industrial output from 1965 to 1998 than dominant-faction counties?

Resposta

Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q062.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 62 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['62'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 62: effect -0.0401814, standard_error 0.0493698
Valor como publicado
-0.04018143506236438
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.04936979382899201
Valor
-0,0401814-0.04018143506236438 (se 0,04936980.04936979382899201)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: -0,0401814-0.04018143506236438 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.936979382899201e-8
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,04936980.04936979382899201 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.936979382899201e-8

crb_papers.q062.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 62
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/DiD/Zhang_etal_2021/question_2/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 1133 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
0c76df091ec01b14c0648eee2cc352b1dbb1b7f491e2d57ffc598dd61fe56449 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Zhang_etal_2021/question_2/estimation.py
Licença
MIT

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    obrigatóriafalhou[-0.13694623096718872,0.05658336084245996]—interval · [-0.13694623096718872, 0.05658336084245996]——
    2figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou-0,0401814-0.04018143506236438—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.936979382899201e-8crb_papers.q062.gold—
    3figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,04936980.04936979382899201—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.936979382899201e-8crb_papers.q062.gold—

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.olsO agente não fez uma chamada de estimação que a resposta cite.

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      Did Zhejiang counties historically classified as marginal-faction counties experience larger increases in the non-state (collective and private) share of industrial output from 1965 to 1998 than dominant-faction counties?

      ds_0032 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | countyid | Numeric identifier for a county in Zhejiang province, China. The same identifier links its observations across years. | | year | Calendar year. The file contains rows for 1952, 1957, 1965, 1978, and 1998. The nonsoe outcome is observed only in 1965, 1978, and 1998. | | nonsoe | Share of county industrial output produced by collective and private firms, on a 0–1 scale. Calculated as total industrial output minus state-owned industrial output, divided by total industrial output. | | mfc1978 | Indicator equal to 1 for a historically classified marginal-faction county in 1978, and 0 otherwise. This column combines the county's historical classification with the year being 1978; its zeros in other years do not mean that the historical classification changed. | | mfc1998 | Indicator equal to 1 for a historically classified marginal-faction county in 1998, and 0 otherwise. This column combines the same historical county classification with the year being 1998. | Dataset Context: This extract contains 61 counties in Zhejiang province, with 305 county-year rows. Industrial statistics were compiled from provincial statistical records. The non-state sector includes collective and private firms. Non-state industrial-output shares are unavailable in the file for 1952 and 1957; the numbers of counties with observed shares are 52 in 1965, 53 in 1978, and 61 in 1998. Reporting was disrupted during the Cultural Revolution, so the observations are benchmark years rather than a continuous annual series. Historical county classifications were constructed from organizational histories and county gazetteers. In Zhejiang, counties maintaining independent guerrilla forces during 1945–1948 were classified as marginal-faction counties, reflecting the subsequent marginalization of those local political elites within the provincial power structure. Other counties form the dominant-faction category. This historical classification is constant for a county; 1978 and 1998 in the two column names identify observation years, not dates when the classification was introduced. The county-level classification can be recovered from either column's value in its named year.

      file 6eede5a4f1540d2b6513ec2483909477a548f32e838e4e0bb0a385ab6edde649 · frame —
      ref_panel (reference)
      file 6eede5a4f1540d2b6513ec2483909477a548f32e838e4e0bb0a385ab6edde649 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe","mfc1998"]}
      2. filter {"query":"year in [1965, 1998]"}
      3. dropna {"columns":["nonsoe"]}
      4. filter {"query":"year == 1965"}
      5. rename {"map":{"nonsoe":"y_pre"}}
      6. select {"columns":["countyid","y_pre"]}
      7. merge {"how":"inner","on":["countyid"],"with":"ref_post"}
      8. merge {"how":"inner","on":["countyid"],"with":"ref_treat"}
      9. derive {"args":{"left":"y_post","right":"y_pre"},"name":"delta","op":"diff"}
      ref_post (reference)
      file 6eede5a4f1540d2b6513ec2483909477a548f32e838e4e0bb0a385ab6edde649 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe","mfc1998"]}
      2. filter {"query":"year in [1965, 1998]"}
      3. dropna {"columns":["nonsoe"]}
      4. filter {"query":"year == 1998"}
      5. rename {"map":{"nonsoe":"y_post"}}
      6. select {"columns":["countyid","y_post"]}
      ref_treat (reference)
      file 6eede5a4f1540d2b6513ec2483909477a548f32e838e4e0bb0a385ab6edde649 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["countyid","year","nonsoe","mfc1998"]}
      2. filter {"query":"year in [1965, 1998]"}
      3. dropna {"columns":["nonsoe"]}
      4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"mfc1998","fn":"max","name":"treated"}],"by":["countyid"]}
    2. 1Turno do modelo
      call_62f9dc90rules-1Fim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": []
        }
    3. 2Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      —
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    4. 3Resposta

      Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

      Figuras citadas: — · Parada: answered
    5. 4Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    6. 5Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatóriano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    7. 6Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    8. 7Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

    Épocas × verificações

    Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
    #0123
    Época 1passoufalhoufalhoufalhou

    Tentativas

    Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

    Downloads desta tarefa

    Pacote da tarefa (.zip)
    83,3 KB · sha256 9865b9ba1749d19ce3b578f9f55eb3dc313f8997ca927d328f77c201f4119827

    O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.

    Downloads desta tarefa
    ArquivoTamanhosha256
    attachments/3f19a32da4c7e630cf3809ead150f233a80122f89bf123ddc2c970717eebec48.json2,5 KB3f19a32da4c7e630cf3809ead150f233a80122f89bf123ddc2c970717eebec48
    attachments/433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420.json2,4 KB433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420
    attachments/52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b.json64,0 KB52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b
    attachments/63cd94beb3b112481a0464079330c83d9bbe8a056286e839a756038487f01838.json246 B63cd94beb3b112481a0464079330c83d9bbe8a056286e839a756038487f01838
    native/crb_papers/crb_papers.q062.e1.a1.json2,7 KB6205bd009d52131cb75ef26bb55d38ebac7f11d5ebf32bb7c1715a0cdc0438a8
    sources/crb_papers.q062.gold.json1,1 KBe73f0478affaeecf7cfe3d1c3f2e2a44569dc6877ca746b1dcba64ad3c7fb1b9
    sources/crb_papers.q062.script.json1,1 KB1a431f71298d32e5b7497483845a0456bac2acaee1e5527a9925ac9e74adef48
    specs/crb_papers.q062.json10,5 KBa16f83b0e2e5a37df72151a63e904d29961697d51ec392481cb48f530c78fc0b
    traces/crb_papers.q062.e1.a1.jsonl8,2 KB0e39546e79510f0ed211970e532da298f369e494f28e943146e60107dabd8c57
    trajectories/crb_papers.q062.e1.a1.jsonl8,6 KBec4fac6c36d8ee94187d5160807547fa340aef7b3006a5be31a0d285b3b5df6e