Pular para o conteúdo

Tarefa crb_papers.q066

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1

Veredito

falhouDecidida pela verificação 1: figura da resposta próxima, nenhuma estimativa citada.
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect of an additional unit of educational attainment (one category on the 7-point edu scale, ~2-4 years) on noncontentious political participation (the participation scale, 0-1) for individuals born 1959-1971 who were induced to attain more schooling by the 1980 expansion of secondary education (i.e., the complier population among these cohorts)?

Resposta

Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q066.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 66 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['66'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 66: effect -0.0980199, standard_error 0.0265033
Valor como publicado
-0.09801993782056861
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.026503263844653523
Valor
-0,0980199-0.09801993782056861 (se 0,02650330.026503263844653523)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: -0,0980199-0.09801993782056861 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 2.6503263844653523e-8
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,02650330.026503263844653523 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 2.6503263844653523e-8

crb_papers.q066.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 66
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/IV/Croke2016/question/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 486 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
5204e70c5d76350f8ef32eca973385ec5256acd4e0f4a4d3e3e73de5be45ad1c (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/IV/Croke2016/question/estimation.py
Licença
MIT

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    obrigatóriafalhou[-0.14996633495608952,-0.04607354068504771]—interval · [-0.14996633495608952, -0.04607354068504771]——
    2figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou-0,0980199-0.09801993782056861—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 2.6503263844653523e-8crb_papers.q066.gold—
    3figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,02650330.026503263844653523—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 2.6503263844653523e-8crb_papers.q066.gold—

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.iv_2slsO agente não fez uma chamada de estimação que a resposta cite.

    Pendências do caminho de referência: needs_op:iv_cluster_cr0

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      What is the causal effect of an additional unit of educational attainment (one category on the 7-point edu scale, ~2-4 years) on noncontentious political participation (the participation scale, 0-1) for individuals born 1959-1971 who were induced to attain more schooling by the 1980 expansion of secondary education (i.e., the complier population among these cohorts)?

      ds_0036 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|-------------| | row_id | Internal row/case identifier (original CSV index). | | age | Respondent age in years at the time of interview. | | year_survey | Survey round year (e.g., 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2012). | | voted | Binary indicator for whether the respondent reported voting in the most recent national election. | | contacted_local_govt | Binary indicator for whether the respondent reported contacting their local government/councilor. | | district | Name of the respondent’s sampled administrative district. | | events | Count of recorded political/conflict events linked to the respondent’s district (administrative-level event tally). | | d_incumbent | District-level share (proportion) of votes for the incumbent party/candidate at the most recent relevant election. | | d_turnout | District-level turnout proportion at the most recent relevant election. | | year_birth | Respondent birth year. | | good_own_liv_cond | Self-reported indicator that respondent rates their living conditions as good. | | gift_for_vote | Binary indicator for whether the respondent reported receiving a gift linked to voting or campaign activity. | | freedom_vote | Indicator capturing the respondent’s perception that their vote was free (perceived electoral freedom). | | find_out_vote | Indicator of whether the respondent sought out information about the election/voting (e.g., to find out results or how to vote). | | att_comm_meet | Binary indicator for attendance at a local/community meeting in the past 12 months. | | raise_issue | Binary indicator for whether the respondent reports raising an issue at a community meeting. | | close_inc_party | Indicator for feeling close to the incumbent party (self-reported party closeness to ruling party). | | close_main_opp_party | Indicator for feeling close to the main opposition party (self-reported closeness). | | fear | Self-reported indicator of fear of political violence or repression (response to safety/fear question). | | int_pub_aff | Indicator of interest in public affairs or politics (self-reported political interest). | | employed | Binary indicator for current employment status. | | supp_demo | Indicator for expressed support for democracy (attitudinal item). | | only_national_identity | Indicator that respondent identifies only with a national identity (vs. ethnic/local identity). | | some_national_identity | Indicator that respondent expresses some national identity (as opposed to exclusively local/ethnic). | | ndebele | Binary indicator for membership in the Ndebele ethnic group. | | shona | Binary indicator for membership in the Shona ethnic group. | | running | Numerically coded running variable derived from birth year relative to the cohort cutoff (standardized cohort position). | | post | Binary indicator for observations surveyed after the 2008 election period (e.g., surveys 2009+). | | treatment | Cohort-based indicator (numeric) denoting eligibility/assignment for the post-independence secondary-school expansion (coded per replication file). | | partial | Numeric/continuous indicator capturing partial exposure/dosage of cohort-level schooling eligibility (fractional exposure). | | any_treatment | Indicator for any exposure to the expanded secondary-schooling cohorts (partially or fully exposed). | | edu | Ordinal education attainment measure (categories from no schooling through completed college). | | a_l_incomplete_primary | Indicator for attained level = incomplete primary (individual-level attained-level dummy). | | a_l_complete_primary | Indicator for attained level = completed primary. | | a_l_incomplete_high | Indicator for attained level = incomplete secondary/high school. | | a_l_complete_high | Indicator for attained level = completed secondary/high school. | | a_l_incomplete_college | Indicator for attained level = incomplete college/university. | | a_l_complete_college | Indicator for attained level = completed college/university. | | male | Binary indicator for respondent sex (male = 1). | | weight_cohort | Cohort-specific sampling/analysis weight (applied in cohort-based aggregation or adjustment). | | comp | Computed/internal variable used in the replication (not explicitly described in the paper). | | closest_border_rebel | Distance (regional/geographic measure) to the closest border used historically by rebel groups entering the country. | | ZIPRA | Geographic distance or proximity measure specifically to the ZIPRA rebel entry border/axis (numeric). | | ZANLA | Geographic distance or proximity measure specifically to the ZANLA rebel entry border/axis (numeric). | | multi | Indicator for multiple local affiliations/memberships (e.g., membership in more than one association or multi‑affiliation flag). | | poverty | Objective deprivation/poverty scale combining items such as going without food, medicine, or cash in the past year. | | incumbent_overall | Composite index summarizing trust in and perceived performance of incumbent authorities (multi-item scale). | | corruption | Perceived corruption index (composite of items asking whether officials/politicians are corrupt). | | news | News-consumption index (frequency of obtaining political news via radio, TV, newspapers). | | part_scale | Summative participation scale combining multiple non-contentious political participation items (composite index). | | view_govt_scale | Aggregate index summarizing overall views of government (trust, performance, and related attitudinal items). | | economic_scale | Composite economic outcomes scale combining employment, living-conditions and poverty indicators. | | mean_incomplete_primary | District-/cohort-level mean proportion of respondents with incomplete primary (contextual aggregate). | | mean_complete_primary | District-/cohort-level mean proportion of respondents with completed primary. | | mean_edu | District-/cohort-level mean of the ordinal education variable (average educational attainment). | | mean_a_l_incomplete_primary | District-level mean of the a_l_incomplete_primary indicator (contextual aggregate). | | mean_a_l_complete_primary | District-level mean of the a_l_complete_primary indicator. | | mean_a_l_incomplete_high | District-level mean of the a_l_incomplete_high indicator. | | mean_a_l_complete_high | District-level mean of the a_l_complete_high indicator. | | mean_a_l_incomplete_college | District-level mean of the a_l_incomplete_college indicator. | | mean_a_l_complete_college | District-level mean of the a_l_complete_college indicator. | | mean_no_schooling | District-level mean proportion with no schooling. | | mean_part_scale | District-/cohort-level mean of the participation scale. | | mean_voted | District-level mean proportion reporting having voted. | | mean_contacted_local_govt | District-level mean of contacting local government. | | mean_att_comm_meet | District-level mean of attending community meetings. | | mean_raise_issue | District-level mean of raising issues at meetings. | | mean_economic_scale | District-level mean of the economic outcomes scale. | | mean_employed | District-level mean employment rate. | | mean_good_own_liv_cond | District-level mean proportion reporting good living conditions. | | mean_poverty | District-level mean of the poverty index. | | mean_news | District-level mean of news-consumption index. | | mean_int_pub_aff | District-level mean proportion interested in public affairs. | | mean_view_govt_scale | District-level mean of the view_govt_scale. | | mean_close_inc_party | District-level mean proportion feeling close to the incumbent party. | | mean_close_main_opp_party | District-level mean proportion feeling close to the main opposition party. | | mean_incumbent_overall | District-level mean of the incumbent_overall composite. | | mean_corruption | District-level mean perception of corruption. | | mean_supp_demo | District-level mean of support-for-democracy indicator. | | mean_multi | District-level mean proportion reporting multiple affiliations/memberships. | | mean_shona | District-level proportion of respondents identifying as Shona. | | mean_ndebele | District-level proportion identifying as Ndebele. | | mean_male | District-level proportion of male respondents. | | mean_d_incumbent | District-level mean of d_incumbent (aggregate incumbent vote share). | | mean_d_turnout | District-level mean turnout. | | mean_closest_border_rebel | District-level mean distance to rebel border. | | mean_ZIPRA | District-level mean distance to ZIPRA border. | | mean_ZANLA | District-level mean distance to ZANLA border. | | mean_gift_for_vote | District-level mean proportion reporting receiving vote-related gifts. | | mean_freedom_vote | District-level mean perception that voting was free. | | mean_find_out_vote | District-level mean of finding out about voting/election info. | | mean_fear | District-level mean of fear/repression indicator. | | mean_age | District-/cohort-level mean age. | | mean_only_national_identity | District-level mean proportion identifying only with national identity. | | mean_some_national_identity | District-level mean proportion expressing some national identity. | | _Iyear_surv_2004 | Survey-year dummy = 1 if observation comes from the 2004 Afrobarometer round. | | _Iyear_surv_2005 | Survey-year dummy = 1 if observation comes from the 2005 round. | | _Iyear_surv_2009 | Survey-year dummy = 1 if observation comes from the 2009 round. | | _Iyear_surv_2010 | Survey-year dummy = 1 if observation comes from the 2010 round. | | _Iyear_surv_2012 | Survey-year dummy = 1 if observation comes from the 2012 round. | Data Description: This dataset is a pooled individual-level compilation used to study political attitudes and social outcomes in Zimbabwe, built from several Zimbabwe rounds of the Afrobarometer (the paper focuses on rounds including 1999, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2012). It combines respondent-level survey items (demographics, education categories, political attitudes, civic behaviors, economic self-reports) with district- and cohort-level contextual measures (electoral aggregates, conflict/event tallies, geographic proximity to historical rebel entry borders) and several constructed summary scales (participation, economic outcomes, government views, corruption, news consumption). The sample follows Afrobarometer’s nationally representative multi‑stage survey design; variables are a mixture of self-reported answers, derived attainment-category dummies, cohort indicators (based on birth year), and administrative/geographic linkages merged into the individual file for analysis and robustness checks.

      file d3ada3e174d60cc0240447a6ae594b6bdcbcb786b3a4eb25667528967c0b70e4 · frame —
      ref_iv (reference)
      file d3ada3e174d60cc0240447a6ae594b6bdcbcb786b3a4eb25667528967c0b70e4 · frame —
      1. filter {"query":"year_birth >= 1959 and year_birth <= 1971"}
      2. select {"columns":["part_scale","edu","treatment","year_survey","district"]}
      3. dropna {"columns":["part_scale","edu","treatment","year_survey","district"]}
      4. dummies {"column":"year_survey","drop_first":true,"prefix":"year_survey"}
    2. 1Turno do modelo
      call_ea4cf042rules-1Fim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": []
        }
    3. 2Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      —
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    4. 3Resposta

      Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

      Figuras citadas: — · Parada: answered
    5. 4Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    6. 5Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatóriano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    7. 6Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    8. 7Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

    Épocas × verificações

    Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
    #0123
    Época 1passoufalhoufalhoufalhou

    Tentativas

    Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

    Downloads desta tarefa

    Pacote da tarefa (.zip)
    92,9 KB · sha256 df392a49ba9917ed302592986b5cf65a56d5136fca601010ad9c222f0d1cbba9

    O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.

    Downloads desta tarefa
    ArquivoTamanhosha256
    attachments/433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420.json2,4 KB433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420
    attachments/50cda876be57ae95d7a8fa90f1f67015bc1e573c93472e969122cb8c46474d92.json394 B50cda876be57ae95d7a8fa90f1f67015bc1e573c93472e969122cb8c46474d92
    attachments/52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b.json64,0 KB52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b
    attachments/6fa1185b7a2d22e6f3026d44936cfb311a42c852c5c7400993ce0cf9ddbbcf71.json14,3 KB6fa1185b7a2d22e6f3026d44936cfb311a42c852c5c7400993ce0cf9ddbbcf71
    native/crb_papers/crb_papers.q066.e1.a1.json2,7 KB45d68b263f06ab4db98c426f92ab262d25fc8716df561d69f2a6f54909dfdeac
    sources/crb_papers.q066.gold.json1,1 KB612594e7c68b88d298ef1d174906185cc29b74561eb537b3a994c50af8b87fda
    sources/crb_papers.q066.script.json1,1 KB85e4df2cef484d1c753ae3643cc243181e1abf6d865f2b41a98d81a46e7cfbb7
    specs/crb_papers.q066.json17,5 KB8690d4e8edf4f2bc2b146afa0a67f3ebc77da0f521f1fc4962e10036f5bdee27
    traces/crb_papers.q066.e1.a1.jsonl20,1 KB61ef62a3f4e1d00e5f74bccd44513df64822f92ad06ea78f3b570d3a43c758f5
    trajectories/crb_papers.q066.e1.a1.jsonl16,0 KB264b6a2933dc5adb8e8e29aa00d3d94c673be9c34ba1fce5be73b9105eecb336