Tarefa crb_papers.q013

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

From 2010 to 2011, how did factories that became compliant (per the sourcing agent's annual compliance indicator) change in logged annual order value (natural log of estimated annual order value in constant 2012 USD) relative to factories that remained noncompliant over the same period?

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Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   From 2010 to 2011, how did factories that became compliant (per the sourcing agent's annual compliance indicator) change in logged annual order value (natural log of estimated annual order value in constant 2012 USD) relative to factories that remained noncompliant over the same period?

   ds_0007 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | (index) | Sequential row number from the CSV export; has no substantive meaning. | | fcode | Anonymous manufacturing establishment identifier. Stable across years within this file but masked to prevent reidentification or linkage to external sources. | | year | Calendar year of record (2009–2012). Reflects the period over which audits, orders, and operational performance were summarized. | | compyr | Annual indicator for whether the establishment was deemed compliant with the sourcing agent’s code of conduct in that year (1 = compliant, 0 = not compliant). Compliance is determined from social and environmental audits; values may be missing in years without an audit. | | gradeyr | Audit grade for the year mapped to a numeric scale (A = 3, B = 2, C = 1, D = 0). Grades summarize findings from factory audits that assess labor, health and safety, environmental, and legal practices. May be blank in years without an audit. | | lestspend_dall | Natural log of the estimated total value of customer orders routed through the sourcing agent to the factory in that calendar year, expressed in thousands of constant 2012 USD. Underlying nominal values were originally reported in annual bins; midpoints were used and deflated to 2012 dollars before logging. | | inspyr | Share of quality inspections passed during the year (0–1), calculated from the agent’s inspection records for orders it handled at the factory. Represents the fraction of checks that met specified quality criteria. | | ontimeyr | On-time delivery rate during the year (0–1), computed from order-tracking data for shipments coordinated by the agent, where “on time” indicates delivery on or before the scheduled date. | | factoryobs_perf | Count of underlying observations used to compute the year’s performance rates (e.g., number of inspections or orders contributing to inspyr and ontimeyr). Larger values imply more stable rate estimates. | | factorytt | Panel time index for convenience in longitudinal analyses (1 = 2009, 2 = 2010, 3 = 2011, 4 = 2012). | Dataset Context: This panel assembles administrative records from a multinational sourcing intermediary that connects buyers—primarily retailers and brand owners in advanced economies—with manufacturing suppliers across 36 countries. The intermediary maintains a supply-chain responsibility program with a written code of conduct covering labor conditions, environmental practices, health and safety, and compliance with local law. Factories are periodically audited by trained assessors, typically during one- to two-day site visits that review documents, conduct walkthroughs, and interview personnel. Audits produce letter grades (A–D), with the intermediary treating A/B as meeting its standard and C/D as not meeting it. For each calendar year, the data retain a factory’s grade and a binary indicator derived from these audits; some factories are visited multiple times in a year, while others may go a year without a recorded audit. The same intermediary aggregates commercial activity by factory and year from its order-management systems. Because customers provided annual purchasing in value bands, the dataset converts those bands to midpoints, deflates them to constant 2012 U.S. dollars using import price indices for consumer goods, and applies a natural log transformation. Operational performance metrics—on-time delivery and quality inspection pass rates—are calculated from order- and shipment-level tracking for business transacted through the agent; these rates are only observed in years when the intermediary coordinated orders at the factory, and their precision varies with the number of underlying events. Coverage spans 2009–2012 and a mix of product categories with a substantial share of apparel. Factory identities and any corporate names were anonymized under a data access agreement. Users should note common features of this type of administrative data: audit results reflect conditions at the time of inspection rather than continuous monitoring; performance rates pertain to the subset of a factory’s portfolio handled by the intermediary; and annual purchasing values are estimates derived from reported bins rather than exact ledgers. Despite these limits, the dataset offers rare, harmonized, multi-country visibility into auditing outcomes, order flows, and supplier performance within global manufacturing supply chains during the early 2010s.

   file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —

   ref_panel (reference)

   file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["fcode","year","compyr","lestspend_dall"]}
   2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"compyr","value":0},"name":"compyr","op":"indicator"}
   3. derive {"args":{"column":"compyr","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"compyr","op":"map"}
   4. dropna {"columns":["fcode","year","lestspend_dall"]}
   5. filter {"query":"year in [2010, 2011]"}
   6. merge {"how":"left","on":["fcode"],"with":"ref_years"}
   7. merge {"how":"left","on":["fcode"],"with":"ref_wpre"}
   8. merge {"how":"left","on":["fcode"],"with":"ref_wpost"}
   9. filter {"query":"nyears == 2 and w2010 == 0 and (w2011 == 1 or w2011 == 0)"}
   10. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"w2011","value":1},"name":"treat","op":"indicator"}
   11. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2011},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}
   12. derive {"args":{"columns":["treat","post"]},"name":"treat_post","op":"interaction"}

   ref_wpost (reference)

   file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["fcode","year","compyr","lestspend_dall"]}
   2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"compyr","value":0},"name":"compyr","op":"indicator"}
   3. derive {"args":{"column":"compyr","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"compyr","op":"map"}
   4. dropna {"columns":["fcode","year","lestspend_dall"]}
   5. filter {"query":"year == 2011"}
   6. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"compyr","fn":"max","name":"w2011"}],"by":["fcode"]}

   ref_wpre (reference)

   file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["fcode","year","compyr","lestspend_dall"]}
   2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"compyr","value":0},"name":"compyr","op":"indicator"}
   3. derive {"args":{"column":"compyr","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"compyr","op":"map"}
   4. dropna {"columns":["fcode","year","lestspend_dall"]}
   5. filter {"query":"year == 2010"}
   6. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"compyr","fn":"max","name":"w2010"}],"by":["fcode"]}

   ref_years (reference)

   file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["fcode","year","compyr","lestspend_dall"]}
   2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"compyr","value":0},"name":"compyr","op":"indicator"}
   3. derive {"args":{"column":"compyr","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"compyr","op":"map"}
   4. dropna {"columns":["fcode","year","lestspend_dall"]}
   5. filter {"query":"year in [2010, 2011]"}
   6. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"lestspend_dall","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["fcode","year"]}
   7. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["fcode"]}
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_141e13danaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0007",
       "x": [
         "compyr"
       ],
       "y": "lestspend_dall"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_abda59dfdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0007",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "compyr"
     ],
     "y": "lestspend_dall"
   }

   Figuras call_abda59df

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.compyr Coefficient on compyr in the regression of lestspend_dall	0,818814	0.8188135638240273	0,05237680.05237680121096952	0,716139 – 0,921488

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 6.9156915
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,03031670.03031667017823969
   • df_resid = 6.9136913
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 6.4386073088036895,
         "ci_low": 6.317925965168989,
         "coef": 6.378266636986339,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.030781232491970102,
         "t": 207.21284109238437,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.9214881845864734,
         "ci_low": 0.7161389430615811,
         "coef": 0.8188135638240273,
         "p": 3.6352473499872366e-54,
         "se": 0.05237680121096952,
         "t": 15.633134229139204,
         "term": "compyr"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 1366 rows were dropped because one of 'lestspend_dall', 'compyr' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0007 74ebc14fdf1f0e1af51fdb642ef7e15cd28221b5a17ebf5b7310bdefa5345a25

   sha256 do resultado

   22ca75ea652878c043298ec2407177e4d5f5e1d76fb3c6e5a6d45d6f85eb9258

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_1b677518naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.compyr = 0,8188.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_abda59df:coef.compyr"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,8188

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.compyr = 0,8188.

   Figuras citadas: call_abda59df:coef.compyr · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_abda59df:coef.compyr = 0,8188140.8188135638240273 (se 0,05237680.05237680121096952)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.8188135638 in [0.0006998571082, 0.4625836606]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.8188135638 vs 0.231641758856158
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.05237680121 vs 0.11782750089182911

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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