Tarefa crb_papers.q036

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Did designation as fully exempt from short-sale price restrictions alter the probability that firms reported any federal lobbying activity between 2002 and 2005?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Did designation as fully exempt from short-sale price restrictions alter the probability that firms reported any federal lobbying activity between 2002 and 2005?

   ds_0019 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | treated | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether the company’s security was listed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as fully exempt from short-sale price tests under the Regulation SHO pilot in that calendar year. Based on official SEC pilot rosters first released in 2004 and updated in April 2005. Values are 1 in years when the exemption applied (primarily 2005–2007) and 0 otherwise (pre-pilot years are coded 0). | | lobby | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether the company reported any federally registered lobbying activity during the calendar year, as recorded in LobbyView from Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA) filings. This captures participation (any filing recorded) rather than amounts or targets. | | ticker | Stock ticker symbol used to identify the firm across years. Tickers reflect exchange-listed identifiers for Russell 3000 companies in the early-to-mid 2000s; symbols may change over time due to corporate actions. | | year | Calendar year of the observation (2002–2007). | Dataset Context: This panel links two administrative sources for U.S. publicly traded firms in the Russell 3000 around the mid-2000s. One source is the SEC’s Regulation SHO pilot, adopted in 2004 to study market effects of relaxing short-sale price tests. The pilot began on May 2, 2005, and concluded on August 6, 2007. To populate the pilot roster, the SEC sorted securities by exchange, ranked them using prior-year average daily dollar volume, and selected every third stock for full exemption from short-sale price tests. The Commission released an initial list in 2004 and an updated list in April 2005 to reflect mergers, delistings, and other corporate changes during implementation. The second source is LobbyView, which compiles federal lobbying registrations and periodic activity reports mandated by the Lobbying Disclosure Act. During 2002–2007, filings were made on a semiannual schedule and include the registrant, clients, and issues lobbied. For this dataset, those filings are harmonized to a firm-year indicator that flags whether a company is observed to have any registered federal lobbying activity in a given calendar year. Each row in the file represents a ticker–year pairing from 2002 through 2007, spanning pre-pilot and pilot periods. Because the composition of exchange-listed firms evolves, the panel reflects contemporaneous Russell 3000 constituents and incorporates SEC updates to pilot participation where securities were added or removed due to corporate events. The resulting structure enables researchers to observe, for each firm and year, its exemption status under the SEC pilot and whether it engaged in registered federal lobbying, alongside stable identifiers and a consistent annual time scale.

   file df584143267596bb0072e20d3c0d280681eb8d7110ec9f356bc1ad8a1108570d · frame —

   ref_ever (reference)

   file df584143267596bb0072e20d3c0d280681eb8d7110ec9f356bc1ad8a1108570d · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["treated","lobby","ticker","year"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["year","treated","lobby","ticker"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year in [2002, 2005]"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"treated","fn":"max","name":"ever"}],"by":["ticker"]}

   ref_panel (reference)

   file df584143267596bb0072e20d3c0d280681eb8d7110ec9f356bc1ad8a1108570d · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["treated","lobby","ticker","year"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["year","treated","lobby","ticker"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year in [2002, 2005]"}
   4. merge {"how":"left","on":["ticker"],"with":"ref_years"}
   5. filter {"query":"nyears == 2"}
   6. merge {"how":"inner","on":["ticker"],"with":"ref_ever"}
   7. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2005},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}
   8. derive {"args":{"columns":["ever","post"]},"name":"post_ever","op":"interaction"}

   ref_years (reference)

   file df584143267596bb0072e20d3c0d280681eb8d7110ec9f356bc1ad8a1108570d · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["treated","lobby","ticker","year"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["year","treated","lobby","ticker"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year in [2002, 2005]"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"lobby","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["ticker","year"]}
   5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["ticker"]}
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_169ab998naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0019",
       "x": [
         "treated"
       ],
       "y": "lobby"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_00c90981decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0019",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "treated"
     ],
     "y": "lobby"
   }

   Figuras call_00c90981

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.treated Coefficient on treated in the regression of lobby	0,0270552	0.02705515415268574	0,00960080.009600801886577874	0,00823659 – 0,0458737

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 17.01017010
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,0004818440.0004818435215914185
   • df_resid = 17.00817008
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.30460983714786954,
         "ci_low": 0.2895654678376745,
         "coef": 0.297087652492772,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.0038376467134381134,
         "t": 77.4140181930957,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.04587371928400997,
         "ci_low": 0.008236589021361512,
         "coef": 0.02705515415268574,
         "p": 0.004837808398306813,
         "se": 0.009600801886577874,
         "t": 2.818009836293927,
         "term": "treated"
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0019 053d54092dea950807b3a465ca529d83998a5cfcb9953b4b083548e0278e2cdd

   sha256 do resultado

   e0bd41a5e3ff8f0a586330b6e424578def75c86446ad93b9334dbe3f537778a3

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_7692b8b4naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.treated = 0,02706.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_00c90981:coef.treated"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,02706

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.treated = 0,02706.

   Figuras citadas: call_00c90981:coef.treated · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_00c90981:coef.treated = 0,02705520.02705515415268574 (se 0,00960080.009600801886577874)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.02705515415 in [0.000120986167, 0.05104942718]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.02705515415 vs 0.02558520667475296
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.009600801887 vs 0.012991949238672616

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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