Tarefa crb_papers.q076

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect of being enrolled in public health insurance (versus only private insurance) on an individual's support for the Affordable Care Act, measured for the subgroup whose insurance enrollment was shifted by the exogenous eligibility variation exploited in this analysis?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the causal effect of being enrolled in public health insurance (versus only private insurance) on an individual's support for the Affordable Care Act, measured for the subgroup whose insurance enrollment was shifted by the exogenous eligibility variation exploited in this analysis?

   ds_0046 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | row_id | Row identifier / case index (sequential record number). | | educ | Education level (ordered categorical from the CCES; coded 1–6 with higher values indicating more education). | | votereg | Voter registration status (binary indicator; 1 = registered to vote, 0 = not registered). | | child18 | Child under age 18 present in household (binary indicator; 1 = yes, 0 = no). | | newsint | How closely respondent follows news about government and public affairs (ordinal scale; CCES item typically coded 1–4 with higher values = follows more closely). | | suppafford | Support for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (dichotomous; 1 = support, 0 = oppose). | | dontcutmedicare | Budget-priority item: respondent selected “Don’t cut domestic spending such as Medicare and Social Security” as the option they would least prefer among deficit-reduction choices (dichotomous; 1 = selected this option, 0 = otherwise). | | byr4647 | Indicator for birth cohort in this extract: 1 = born in 1946–1947, 0 = born in 1948–1949 (no other birth years included in this file). | | privpubins3r | Health insurance type (recoded dichotomy used in the study): 1 = has any public insurance (including public-only or public + private), 0 = private insurance only. (Respondents with other/none/unknown coverage may appear as missing, depending on CCES source coding.) | | con | Ideology: conservative (binary indicator; 1 = self-identifies as conservative, 0 = otherwise). | | mod | Ideology: moderate (binary indicator; 1 = self-identifies as moderate, 0 = otherwise). | | ideostrength | Strength of ideological identification (ordinal measure; higher values indicate stronger ideology). | | rep | Party identification: Republican (binary indicator; 1 = Republican, 0 = otherwise). | | ind | Party identification: Independent (binary indicator; 1 = Independent, 0 = otherwise). | | employed | Employment status (binary indicator; 1 = employed full-time or part-time, 0 = otherwise). | | healthcaresupport | Occupation indicator: works in “healthcare support” occupation category (binary indicator; 1 = yes, 0 = no). | | hcsocial | Industry indicator: works in “healthcare or social assistance” industry category (binary indicator; 1 = yes, 0 = no). | | fininsur | Industry indicator: works in “finance or insurance” industry category (binary indicator; 1 = yes, 0 = no). | | hispanic2 | Hispanic ethnicity (binary indicator; 1 = Hispanic, 0 = not Hispanic). | | black | Race: Black/African American (binary indicator; 1 = Black, 0 = not Black). | | military | Military household affiliation (binary indicator; 1 = respondent or household member is affiliated with the military, 0 = otherwise). | | mobility | Residential mobility (binary indicator; 1 = recently moved, 0 = otherwise; exact reference period follows CCES coding). | | married | Marital status (binary indicator; 1 = married, 0 = not married). | | homeowner | Homeownership (binary indicator; 1 = owns home, 0 = does not own). | | labor | Labor union household indicator (binary indicator; 1 = respondent or someone in household belongs to a labor union, 0 = otherwise). | | publicemp | Public-sector employment (binary indicator; 1 = public employee, 0 = otherwise). | | vote08 | Self-reported voting in the 2008 election (binary indicator; 1 = voted, 0 = did not vote). | | bornagain | Religious identification as “born again” (binary indicator; 1 = yes, 0 = no). | | religimp | Importance of religion (ordinal scale; higher values indicate religion is more important to the respondent). | | male | Gender (binary indicator; 1 = male, 0 = not male). | | fincome | Family income (ordered categorical bins from the CCES; coded 1–16 with higher values indicating higher income; some respondents may have missing/refused). | Dataset Context: This file is an analysis-ready extract derived from the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), an online national survey administered by YouGov/Polymetrix. It contains individual-level responses covering demographic characteristics (education, income, sex, race/ethnicity, marital and homeownership status), political identifiers and behavior (party identification, ideology and its strength, voter registration and 2008 turnout, news consumption), work/household indicators (employment, public-employee and military household flags, union household, mobility), religiosity measures, and items about health insurance source and attitudes toward health-related policy questions. Variable codings mix binary indicators and ordered categorical scales; the table above summarizes each column as present in the provided CSV. This extract is restricted to respondents born in 1946–1949 (corresponding to roughly ages 63–66 at the time of the October–November 2012 CCES field period).

   file bb1eb952988798d36682e2840f8a80022fb48ddf3c93591bfca5793089f1ee30 · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file bb1eb952988798d36682e2840f8a80022fb48ddf3c93591bfca5793089f1ee30 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["suppafford","privpubins3r","byr4647","rep","ind","con","mod","ideostrength","hcsocial","fininsur","healthcaresupport","child18","male","married","labor","mobility","homeowner","religimp","employed","votereg","vote08","black","hispanic2","military","fincome","newsint","publicemp","bornagain"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["suppafford","privpubins3r","byr4647","rep","ind","con","mod","ideostrength","hcsocial","fininsur","healthcaresupport","child18","male","married","labor","mobility","homeowner","religimp","employed","votereg","vote08","black","hispanic2","military","fincome","newsint","publicemp","bornagain"]}
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_12093871naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0046",
       "x": [
         "privpubins3r"
       ],
       "y": "suppafford"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_1421375ddecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0046",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "privpubins3r"
     ],
     "y": "suppafford"
   }

   Figuras call_1421375d

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.privpubins3r Coefficient on privpubins3r in the regression of suppafford	0,0362485	0.03624851387515229	0,01381640.013816441377004055	0,0091625 – 0,0633345

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 5.2215221
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,001316680.0013166792116231507
   • df_resid = 5.2195219
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5311807465317487,
         "ci_low": 0.49353338109643274,
         "coef": 0.5123570638140907,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.009601868905671898,
         "t": 53.36013945279314,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.06333452299721153,
         "ci_low": 0.009162504753093052,
         "coef": 0.03624851387515229,
         "p": 0.008726469612667265,
         "se": 0.013816441377004055,
         "t": 2.623578162136883,
         "term": "privpubins3r"
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0046 689c88964b32920f16710072893eca0946d0bfffd668f2f88d265ce3cc17f55f

   sha256 do resultado

   1da3e9706c759e9598f1f6495a7f8004a4947f70505292800e8f7b3a65f789e5

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_a1427c3bnaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.privpubins3r = 0,03625.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_1421375d:coef.privpubins3r"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,03625

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.privpubins3r = 0,03625.

   Figuras citadas: call_1421375d:coef.privpubins3r · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_1421375d:coef.privpubins3r = 0,03624850.03624851387515229 (se 0,01381640.013816441377004055)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.03624851388 in [0.001159492778, 0.09081768689]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.03624851388 vs 0.045988589833671156
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.01381644138 vs 0.022871988293883778

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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