Tarefa crb_papers.q079

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect of increasing the proportion of MNA seats held by secularist parties within a joined district on the probability that any religious violence occurs during the corresponding MNA term? Target estimand: the local average treatment effect for districts where narrowly decided elections change secularist seat share.

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Verificações

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1. 0Início

   What is the causal effect of increasing the proportion of MNA seats held by secularist parties within a joined district on the probability that any religious violence occurs during the corresponding MNA term? Target estimand: the local average treatment effect for districts where narrowly decided elections change secularist seat share.

   ds_0049 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |----------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | row_id | Row index / record identifier (CSV row number). | | joined_district | Joined district identifier: smallest aggregated administrative unit that nests complete parliamentary seats. | | province | Province name or code (e.g., Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, Balochistan). | | year | Election year / observation year. | | no_secular_close_race_2pct | Count of close secular-related contests at a 2% margin threshold (seat-level count). | | no_secular_close_race_2p5pct | Count of close secular-related contests at a 2.5% margin threshold (seat-level count). | | no_secular_close_race_3p5pct | Count of close secular-related contests at a 3.5% margin threshold (seat-level count). | | no_secular_close_race_4pct | Count of close secular-related contests at a 4% margin threshold (seat-level count). | | totalsecularvotes_current | Total votes cast for parties coded as secular in the current election (joined-district aggregate). | | valid_current | Total valid votes cast in the current election (joined-district). | | secular_close_race_3p5pct | Indicator/count of close contests involving secular candidates at 3.5% threshold. | | secular_close_win_3p5pct | Indicator/count of narrow wins by secular candidates at 3.5% threshold. | | secular_close_race_2p5pct | Indicator/count of close contests involving secular candidates at 2.5% threshold. | | secular_close_win_2p5pct | Indicator/count of narrow wins by secular candidates at 2.5% threshold. | | secular_close_race_2pct | Indicator/count of close contests involving secular candidates at 2% threshold. | | secular_close_win_2pct | Indicator/count of narrow wins by secular candidates at 2% threshold. | | secular_close_race_4pct | Indicator/count of close contests involving secular candidates at 4% threshold. | | secular_close_win_4pct | Indicator/count of narrow wins by secular candidates at 4% threshold. | | no_seats | Number of MNA seats contained in the joined district. | | secular_win | Number (or share) of joined-district seats won by parties coded as secular (seat-level count/share). | | secular_close_win | Count of narrowly decided wins by secular candidates in the joined district (primary close-election metric). | | secular_close_race | Count of close electoral contests involving secular candidates in the joined district. | | no_secular_close_race | Count of close electoral contests not won by secular candidates (non-secular close contests). | | margin_of_victory | Margin of victory (proportion) in the focal contest(s) within the joined district. | | aligned_win | Indicator if the winning candidate was aligned with a national party/coalition (alignment flag). | | aligned_close_win | Indicator/count of close wins by aligned candidates (national coalition alignment). | | aligned_close_race | Indicator/count of close races involving aligned candidates. | | eventcount_non_rel_ethnic | Count of non-religious, ethnic-related political-violence events in the joined district. | | eventcount_non_rel_foodwater | Count of non-religious events driven by food/water grievances. | | eventcount_non_rel_fuel | Count of non-religious events driven by fuel-related grievances. | | eventcount_non_rel_pubservices | Count of non-religious events related to public services or delivery. | | eventcount_robust2 | Alternative event-count under robustness specification 2. | | eventcount_robust3 | Alternative event-count under robustness specification 3. | | eventcount_robust4 | Alternative event-count under robustness specification 4. | | eventcount_robust5 | Alternative event-count under robustness specification 5. | | eventcount_robust6 | Alternative event-count under robustness specification 6. | | eventcount_inclusion | Event count using the paper’s inclusion criteria. | | eventcount | Primary count of recorded violent events (religious/sectarian/Jihadist) in the joined district, observation window. | | duration | Total number of days of recorded violent events in the observation window. | | numberkilled | Total fatalities recorded in the violent events during the observation window. | | eventcount_6m_neg1_placebo | Count of events in a 6-month placebo window immediately prior to the reference period. | | lagged_eventcount | Event count in the previous election/observation period (lagged count). | | lagged_duration | Duration of events in the previous period (lagged). | | lagged_numberkilled | Number of fatalities in the previous period (lagged). | | gtb_eventcount | Event count extracted from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) for the joined district. | | cluster_district | Cluster-district identifier used for clustering standard errors / higher-level grouping. | | lagged_rice_area | Lagged area under rice cultivation (agricultural covariate). | | lagged_rice_productivity | Lagged rice productivity / yield (agricultural covariate). | | lagged_wheat_area | Lagged area under wheat cultivation. | | lagged_wheat_productivity | Lagged wheat productivity / yield. | | census_yr | Census year used to source demographic or infrastructure covariates. | | pri_sch_pc | Primary schools per capita (or per 1,000 inhabitants) — educational-access measure. | | pacca_pct | Percent of households living in pucca/permanent housing (census housing quality measure). | | pipe_water_pct | Percent of households with piped water access. | | electricity_pct | Percent of households with electricity access. | | gas_pct | Percent of households with natural gas connections. | | sex_ratio | Sex ratio (demographic indicator: males per 100 females or similar). | | lit_t | Overall (total) literacy rate. | | lit_m | Male literacy rate. | | lit_f | Female literacy rate. | | police_stations_election_year | Number of police stations in the district during the election year. | | regist | Registered voters (count of registered electorate for the joined district). | | prop_secular_incumbent_tmin1 | Proportion of seats held by parties coded as secular in the previous election cycle (t−1). | | lagged_margin_victory | Margin of victory in the prior election period (lagged). | | secularvotes_t_min1 | Total votes for parties coded as secular in the previous election (t−1). | | turnout_tmin1 | Voter turnout in the previous election (t−1) (proportion or percent). | | princely_state | Indicator flag for districts that were historically princely states or similarly administered areas. | | byseat_sec_mov1 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 1 (seat-specific control). | | byseat_sec_mov2 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 2. | | byseat_sec_mov3 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 3. | | byseat_sec_mov4 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 4. | | byseat_sec_mov5 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 5. | | byseat_sec_mov6 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 6. | | byseat_sec_mov7 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 7. | | byseat_sec_mov8 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 8. | | byseat_sec_mov9 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 9. | | byseat_sec_mov10 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 10. | | byseat_sec_mov11 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 11. | | byseat_sec_mov12 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 12. | | byseat_sec_mov13 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 13. | | byseat_sec_mov14 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 14. | | byseat_sec_mov15 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 15. | | byseat_sec_mov16 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 16. | | byseat_sec_mov17 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 17. | | byseat_sec_mov18 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 18. | | byseat_sec_mov19 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 19. | | byseat_sec_mov20 | Seat-level secular vote movement / margin for seat 20. | | byseat_sec_movSQ1 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov1 (polynomial control). | | byseat_sec_movSQ2 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov2. | | byseat_sec_movSQ3 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov3. | | byseat_sec_movSQ4 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov4. | | byseat_sec_movSQ5 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov5. | | byseat_sec_movSQ6 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov6. | | byseat_sec_movSQ7 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov7. | | byseat_sec_movSQ8 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov8. | | byseat_sec_movSQ9 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov9. | | byseat_sec_movSQ10 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov10. | | byseat_sec_movSQ11 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov11. | | byseat_sec_movSQ12 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov12. | | byseat_sec_movSQ13 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov13. | | byseat_sec_movSQ14 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov14. | | byseat_sec_movSQ15 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov15. | | byseat_sec_movSQ16 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov16. | | byseat_sec_movSQ17 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov17. | | byseat_sec_movSQ18 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov18. | | byseat_sec_movSQ19 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov19. | | byseat_sec_movSQ20 | Squared term of byseat_sec_mov20. | | byseat_sec_movCUB1 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov1 (third-power polynomial). | | byseat_sec_movCUB2 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov2. | | byseat_sec_movCUB3 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov3. | | byseat_sec_movCUB4 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov4. | | byseat_sec_movCUB5 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov5. | | byseat_sec_movCUB6 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov6. | | byseat_sec_movCUB7 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov7. | | byseat_sec_movCUB8 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov8. | | byseat_sec_movCUB9 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov9. | | byseat_sec_movCUB10 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov10. | | byseat_sec_movCUB11 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov11. | | byseat_sec_movCUB12 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov12. | | byseat_sec_movCUB13 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov13. | | byseat_sec_movCUB14 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov14. | | byseat_sec_movCUB15 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov15. | | byseat_sec_movCUB16 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov16. | | byseat_sec_movCUB17 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov17. | | byseat_sec_movCUB18 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov18. | | byseat_sec_movCUB19 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov19. | | byseat_sec_movCUB20 | Cubic term of byseat_sec_mov20. | | violenceyear | Year associated with the coded violent events (reference year for violence coding). | | eventcount_t_plus1 | Event count in the subsequent election/observation period (t+1). | | duration_t_plus1 | Duration of events in the subsequent period (t+1). | | numberkilled_t_plus1 | Number killed in the subsequent period (t+1). | | all_crime | Aggregate count of recorded crimes (broad crime metric). | | murder | Number of murder incidents recorded in the district and period. | | rape | Number of rape incidents recorded in the district and period. | | motor_vehicle_theft | Count of motor vehicle theft incidents in the district. | | area_gis | Geographic area of the joined district (GIS-derived measurement; units may be sq. km). | | ln_eventcount | Natural log of eventcount (log-transformed event count; often small constant added to zeros). | | ln_duration | Natural log of duration. | | ln_numberkilled | Natural log of numberkilled. | | any_violence | Binary indicator (0/1) whether any violent events were recorded in the observation window. | | any_killed | Binary indicator (0/1) whether any fatalities were recorded. | | ln_eventcount_inclusion | Log of eventcount_inclusion. | | any_violence_inclusion | Binary indicator for any events under the inclusion criteria. | | ln_eventcount_robust2 | Log of eventcount_robust2. | | any_violence_robust2 | Binary indicator for any events under robustness spec 2. | | ln_eventcount_robust3 | Log of eventcount_robust3. | | any_violence_robust3 | Binary indicator for any events under robustness spec 3. | | ln_eventcount_robust4 | Log of eventcount_robust4. | | any_violence_robust4 | Binary indicator for any events under robustness spec 4. | | ln_eventcount_robust5 | Log of eventcount_robust5. | | any_violence_robust5 | Binary indicator for any events under robustness spec 5. | | ln_eventcount_robust6 | Log of eventcount_robust6. | | any_violence_robust6 | Binary indicator for any events under robustness spec 6. | | ln_lagged_eventcount | Log of lagged_eventcount. | | ln_lagged_duration | Log of lagged_duration. | | ln_lagged_numberkilled | Log of lagged_numberkilled. | | any_lagged_violence | Binary indicator for any violence in the lagged (previous) period. | | any_lagged_killed | Binary indicator for any fatalities in the lagged period. | | ln_gtb_eventcount | Log of gtb_eventcount (GTD-derived event count, log-transformed). | | gtb_any_violence | Binary indicator for any GTD-recorded violent event in the district-period. | | ln_eventcount_non_rel_ethnic | Log of non-religious ethnic event count. | | any_eventcount_non_rel_ethnic | Binary indicator for any non-religious ethnic events. | | ln_eventcount_non_rel_foodwater | Log of food/water-related event count. | | any_eventcount_non_rel_foodwater | Binary indicator for any food/water-related events. | | ln_eventcount_non_rel_fuel | Log of fuel-related event count. | | any_eventcount_non_rel_fuel | Binary indicator for any fuel-related events. | | ln_eventcount_non_rel_pubserv | Log of public-services-related event count. | | any_eventcount_non_rel_pubserv | Binary indicator for any public-services-related events. | | ln_eventcount_t_plus1 | Log of eventcount in the subsequent period (t+1). | | ln_duration_t_plus1 | Log of duration in the subsequent period (t+1). | | ln_numberkilled_t_plus1 | Log of number killed in the subsequent period (t+1). | | any_violence_t_plus1 | Binary indicator for any violence in t+1. | | any_killed_t_plus1 | Binary indicator for any killings in t+1. | | ln_murder | Log of murder count. | | ln_motor_vehicle_theft | Log of motor vehicle theft count. | | karachi_balochistan | Indicator for observations located in Karachi or Balochistan (region flag). | | turnout_pct | Current-election turnout percentage. | | secular_vote_prop_current | Proportion (share) of current votes cast for secular-coded parties in the joined district. | | ln_eventcount_6m_neg1_placebo | Log of the 6-month placebo event count (pre-period log count). | | any_event_6m_neg1 | Binary indicator for any event in the 6-month pre-period placebo window. | | interaction | Constructed interaction term (study-derived interaction variable). | | interaction2 | Second constructed interaction term. | | police_stations_pc | Police-stations-per-capita measure (stations divided by population or registered voters). | | police_stations_pc_median | Median police-stations-per-capita in sample or indicator for above/below median (used for subgrouping). | | province_year | Combined province-year identifier (used for province-year fixed effects). | | cluster_var | Clustering identifier used in estimation (cluster variable for SEs). | | secular_close_win_dummy | Dummy indicator equal to 1 if at least one secular close win occurred in the joined district (binary). | | ln_margin_of_victory | Natural log of margin_of_victory (log-transformed margin). | | regist_ooos | - | | pro | Numeric province code (used as fixed-effect identifier). | Data Description: This dataset is a panel of joined-district × election-year observations for Pakistan covering multiple electoral cycles (late 1980s through 2011). It merges constituency-level electoral returns (seat counts, vote totals, margins and seat-level vote movements) with event-level coding of violent incidents drawn from Pakistani media-based event tallies and an external terrorism database, together with lagged agricultural, demographic and infrastructural covariates sourced from census and administrative records. Units correspond to “joined districts” (smallest aggregates that exactly contain complete parliamentary constituencies); key fields record counts and binary indicators of different event definitions, police and registration measures, socio-economic indicators (literacy, utilities, housing), agricultural measures (area and productivity for rice and wheat), turnout and vote-share summaries, and a variety of constructed polynomial and interaction terms used for robustness checks and subgroup analysis.

   file 29c361e01c07f5833d6e76e2fe88f8ecdc503ece3f3cf15b791c78af66e8ed6d · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file 29c361e01c07f5833d6e76e2fe88f8ecdc503ece3f3cf15b791c78af66e8ed6d · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["any_violence","secular_win","secular_close_win","secular_close_race","pro","cluster_var"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["any_violence","secular_win","secular_close_win","secular_close_race","pro","cluster_var"]}
   3. dummies {"column":"pro","drop_first":true,"prefix":"pro"}
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_48d756c7naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0049",
       "x": [
         "secular_win"
       ],
       "y": "any_violence"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_62b5d79fdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0049",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "secular_win"
     ],
     "y": "any_violence"
   }

   Figuras call_62b5d79f

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.secular_win Coefficient on secular_win in the regression of any_violence	-0,0017333	-0.0017332970362241224	0,03797970.037979687697238196	-0,0763798 – 0,0729132

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 437437
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,000006125090.0000061250897460674025
   • df_resid = 435435
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.9501942056064565,
         "ci_low": 0.8770675060462059,
         "coef": 0.9136308558263312,
         "p": 1.4538921208827466e-179,
         "se": 0.018603208761641492,
         "t": 49.11146606655158,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.07291321280015269,
         "ci_low": -0.07637980687260092,
         "coef": -0.0017332970362241224,
         "p": 0.9636201427653892,
         "se": 0.037979687697238196,
         "t": -0.04563747469545844,
         "term": "secular_win"
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0049 45103588a95626466ef4791a4929c36ef4631fab14b07e7203133ac34682f783

   sha256 do resultado

   bb7a09c05bb36930a7da25a41f171678d1ff0706ad89fb70bf952707cc87c0b5

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_8699201bnaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.secular_win = -0,001733.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_62b5d79f:coef.secular_win"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,001733

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.secular_win = -0,001733.

   Figuras citadas: call_62b5d79f:coef.secular_win · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_62b5d79f:coef.secular_win = -0,0017333-0.0017332970362241224 (se 0,03797970.037979687697238196)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória-0.001733297036 in [-1.075690682, -0.2449894284]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada-0.001733297036 vs -0.6603400553006367
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.0379796877 vs 0.21191358515207642

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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