Tarefa crb_papers.q109

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Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the average effect of nominating an extremist (versus a moderate) U.S. House candidate on that party's share of general-election turnout in 2006-2014 contested primaries?

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1. 0Início

   What is the average effect of nominating an extremist (versus a moderate) U.S. House candidate on that party's share of general-election turnout in 2006-2014 contested primaries?

   ds_0074 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |-----------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Unnamed: 0 | Row index in the dataset. | | state | Two-letter U.S. state postal abbreviation. | | dist | U.S. House congressional district number within the state. | | dem | Indicator for the party focus of the row (1 = Democratic side of race, 0 = Republican). | | year | Election year. | | turnout_dem_strong | Validated turnout rate among strong Democrats in the district sample. | | low_info_votes1 | Number of votes (turned out) among low-information strong Democrats. | | high_info_votes1 | Number of votes among high-information strong Democrats. | | low_info_n1 | Number of low-information strong Democratic respondents. | | high_info_n1 | Number of high-information strong Democratic respondents. | | turnout_dem_nvstrong | Validated turnout rate among not-very-strong Democrats. | | low_info_votes2 | Number of votes among low-information not-very-strong Democrats. | | high_info_votes2 | Number of votes among high-information not-very-strong Democrats. | | low_info_n2 | Number of low-information not-very-strong Democratic respondents. | | high_info_n2 | Number of high-information not-very-strong Democratic respondents. | | turnout_dem_lean | Validated turnout rate among Democratic leaners. | | low_info_votes3 | Number of votes among low-information Democratic leaners. | | high_info_votes3 | Number of votes among high-information Democratic leaners. | | low_info_n3 | Number of low-information Democratic leaners. | | high_info_n3 | Number of high-information Democratic leaners. | | turnout_indep | Validated turnout rate among pure independents. | | low_info_votes4 | Number of votes among low-information independents. | | high_info_votes4 | Number of votes among high-information independents. | | low_info_n4 | Number of low-information independent respondents. | | high_info_n4 | Number of high-information independent respondents. | | turnout_rep_lean | Validated turnout rate among Republican leaners. | | low_info_votes5 | Number of votes among low-information Republican leaners. | | high_info_votes5 | Number of votes among high-information Republican leaners. | | low_info_n5 | Number of low-information Republican leaners. | | high_info_n5 | Number of high-information Republican leaners. | | turnout_rep_rep_nvstrong | Validated turnout rate among not-very-strong Republicans. | | low_info_votes6 | Number of votes among low-information not-very-strong Republicans. | | high_info_votes6 | Number of votes among high-information not-very-strong Republicans. | | low_info_n6 | Number of low-information not-very-strong Republican respondents. | | high_info_n6 | Number of high-information not-very-strong Republican respondents. | | turnout_rep_strong | Validated turnout rate among strong Republicans. | | low_info_votes7 | Number of votes among low-information strong Republicans. | | high_info_votes7 | Number of votes among high-information strong Republicans. | | low_info_n7 | Number of low-information strong Republican respondents. | | high_info_n7 | Number of high-information strong Republican respondents. | | total_responses | Total number of survey respondents in the district-year sample. | | total_turnout | Number of validated voters in the district-year sample. | | turnout_dem | Validated turnout rate among all Democratic identifiers (strong/weak/leaners). | | turnout_rep | Validated turnout rate among all Republican identifiers (strong/weak/leaners). | | dem_turnout_share | Share of validated voters who identify as Democrats. | | rep_turnout_share | Share of validated voters who identify as Republicans. | | low_info_turnout | Number of validated voters among low-information respondents. | | high_info_turnout | Number of validated voters among high-information respondents. | | dem_low_info_turnout_share | Share of low-information turnout attributable to Democratic identifiers. | | rep_low_info_turnout_share | Share of low-information turnout attributable to Republican identifiers. | | dem_high_info_turnout_share | Share of high-information turnout attributable to Democratic identifiers. | | rep_high_info_turnout_share | Share of high-information turnout attributable to Republican identifiers. | | total_low_info_dem | Count of low-information Democratic respondents. | | turnout_low_info_dem | Number of low-information Democratic respondents who turned out. | | total_low_info_rep | Count of low-information Republican respondents. | | turnout_low_info_rep | Number of low-information Republican respondents who turned out. | | total_high_info_dem | Count of high-information Democratic respondents. | | turnout_high_info_dem | Number of high-information Democratic respondents who turned out. | | total_high_info_rep | Count of high-information Republican respondents. | | turnout_high_info_rep | Number of high-information Republican respondents who turned out. | | dem_count | Number of Democratic-identifying respondents. | | rep_count | Number of Republican-identifying respondents. | | ind_count | Number of pure independent respondents. | | dem_voters | Number of validated Democratic-identifying voters. | | rep_voters | Number of validated Republican-identifying voters. | | ind_voters | Number of validated independent voters. | | turnout_ext_lib | Validated turnout rate among respondents identifying as extremely liberal. | | ext_lib_voters | Number of validated voters who are extremely liberal. | | turnout_mod_lib | Validated turnout rate among liberal/slightly liberal respondents. | | turnout_mod | Validated turnout rate among ideological moderates. | | turnout_mod_cons | Validated turnout rate among slightly conservative respondents. | | turnout_ext_cons | Validated turnout rate among extremely conservative respondents. | | ext_cons_voters | Number of validated voters who are extremely conservative. | | turnout_dknow | Validated turnout rate among respondents answering “don’t know” on ideology. | | ext_lib_count | Count of extremely liberal respondents. | | ext_cons_count | Count of extremely conservative respondents. | | lag_dem_share | Previous cycle Democratic share of validated turnout (same district-party). | | lag_rep_share | Previous cycle Republican share of validated turnout (same district-party). | | lag_responses | Number of survey respondents in previous cycle (same district-party). | | lag_dem_count | Number of Democratic-identifying respondents in previous cycle. | | lag_rep_count | Number of Republican-identifying respondents in previous cycle. | | lag_ext_lib_count | Count of extremely liberal respondents in previous cycle. | | lag_ext_cons_count | Count of extremely conservative respondents in previous cycle. | | catalist_share_dem | Catalist-based estimate of Democratic share of turnout in the district. | | catalist_share_rep | Catalist-based estimate of Republican share of turnout in the district. | | catop_total_dem | Catalist estimate of total Democratic voters in the district-year. | | catop_total_rep | Catalist estimate of total Republican voters in the district-year. | | catop_share_dem | Catalist two-party share for Democrats in the district-year. | | catop_share_rep | Catalist two-party share for Republicans in the district-year. | | catop_lag_total_dem | Catalist estimate of total Democratic voters in the prior cycle. | | catop_lag_total_rep | Catalist estimate of total Republican voters in the prior cycle. | | p | Party label for the row (“D” or “R”). | | vote_g0 | - | | vote_top20 | - | | cand_dwnom_amount_prim0 | Dollars from contributors used to build donation-based ideology for primary candidate 0. | | cand_dwnom_amount_prim_noninc0 | Dollars from non-incumbent-linked contributors for candidate 0 (primary). | | cand_dwnom_number_prim0 | Number of contributors used in ideology measure for candidate 0 (primary). | | cand_dwnom_score_i_prim0 | Donation-based ideology score for candidate 0 (primary). | | vote_g1 | - | | vote_top21 | - | | cand_dwnom_amount_prim1 | Dollars from contributors used to build donation-based ideology for primary candidate 1. | | cand_dwnom_amount_prim_noninc1 | Dollars from non-incumbent-linked contributors for candidate 1 (primary). | | cand_dwnom_number_prim1 | Number of contributors used in ideology measure for candidate 1 (primary). | | cand_dwnom_score_i_prim1 | Donation-based ideology score for candidate 1 (primary). | | type | Election type code (e.g., “G” for general). | | D_SW_PCT_SHARE | Democratic share of the two-party general-election vote in the district. | | vote_g_total | Total two-party general-election votes cast in the district-year. | | inc_p | Indicator that the party’s incumbent sought the seat. | | open | Indicator that the seat was open for this party’s side. | | open_all | Indicator that the general-election seat was open (either party). | | r | - | | r_opp | - | | rv | Vote margin of the more ideologically extreme candidate in the party primary (positive = won). | | rv2 | Squared value of rv. | | rv3 | Cubed value of rv. | | rv4 | rv to the fourth power. | | rv5 | rv to the fifth power. | | treat | Indicator that the more ideologically extreme candidate won the party primary. | | treat_rv | - | | vote_general | Party’s two-party general-election vote share in the district-year. | | victory_general | Indicator that the party won the general election in the district-year. | | absdist | Absolute ideological distance between the top two primary candidates (donation-based scale). | | log_total_turnout | Natural log of total ballots cast in the district’s general election. | | midterm | Indicator for midterm election year (non-presidential). | | ext_number_share | Share of contributing individuals classified as “extreme” in the candidate’s donor mix (by count). | | ext_amount_share | Share of dollars from “extreme” contributors in the candidate’s donor mix. | | turnout_party | Validated turnout rate among identifiers of the row’s party. | | turnout_opp_party | Validated turnout rate among identifiers of the opposing party. | | turnout_party_share | Share of total validated turnout attributable to the row’s party. | | lag_share | Prior-cycle share of validated turnout for the row’s party. | | turnout_extreme | Validated turnout rate among ideologically extreme identifiers of the row’s party. | | turnout_opp_extreme | Validated turnout rate among ideologically extreme identifiers of the opposing party. | | low_info_turnout_party_share | Party’s share of turnout among low-information respondents. | | high_info_turnout_party_share | Party’s share of turnout among high-information respondents. | | low_info_turnout_party | Number of low-information identifiers of the row’s party who turned out. | | high_info_turnout_party | Number of high-information identifiers of the row’s party who turned out. | | low_info_turnout_opp_party | Number of low-information identifiers of the opposing party who turned out. | | high_info_turnout_opp_party | Number of high-information identifiers of the opposing party who turned out. | | turnout_party_diff | Difference between party and opposing-party turnout rates. | | pid | Numeric code for the row’s party. | | treat_abs | - | | pres | Indicator for presidential election year. | | re | - | | g | District-level grouping identifier. | | pv | Democratic two-party presidential vote share for the district. | | two_party_total | Total two-party votes cast (general election). | | lag_pv | Prior-cycle Democratic two-party presidential vote share for the district. | | catalist_share | Catalist-based estimate of the party’s share of turnout in the district-year. | | no_party_id | Count or share of respondents with no party identification. | | gov_elec | Indicator for concurrent gubernatorial election in the state. | | senate_elec | Indicator for concurrent U.S. Senate election in the state. | | mindonors | Minimum contributor-count threshold used when constructing donation-based candidate ideology measures. | Data Description: This file assembles district–party–year observations for U.S. House elections from 2006 to 2014 by merging multiple sources: validated individual-level turnout and party identification from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), administrative turnout and modeled party information from Catalist voter files, official congressional election returns, and candidate ideology measures derived from the mix of campaign contributors. The unit of observation aligns with a party’s primary in a congressional district and includes both survey-based tabulations and administrative aggregates. Variables provide counts and rates of validated turnout by party identification strength (strong, weak, leaners), by ideological self-placement (from extremely liberal to extremely conservative), and by respondent information level (low/high). The file also includes general-election vote totals and shares, indicators for incumbency and open seats, presidential/gubernatorial/Senate election timing, donation-based candidate ideology components, and lagged versions of several turnout and composition measures for context. Together, these fields allow analysts to describe who turned out in each district-year, how that composition relates to party and ideology, and how it compares across cycles and data sources.

   file 538c01ce75b92dcf1516060d1db4be4e361949a1b75ac57383b825063ae2addc · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_8040fde3naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0074",
       "x": [
         "treat"
       ],
       "y": "turnout_party_share"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_7b1d9d35decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0074",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "treat"
     ],
     "y": "turnout_party_share"
   }

   Figuras call_7b1d9d35

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.treat Coefficient on treat in the regression of turnout_party_share	-0,0106705	-0.010670512962234724	0,01762850.017628463425222854	-0,0454111 – 0,02407

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 224224
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,001661910.001661913512152613
   • df_resid = 222222
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5296894296535543,
         "ci_low": 0.476872990961889,
         "coef": 0.5032812103077217,
         "p": 3.7740198095769415e-98,
         "se": 0.01340037562579871,
         "t": 37.55724648037426,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.024070030277987008,
         "ci_low": -0.04541105620245645,
         "coef": -0.010670512962234724,
         "p": 0.5455977945916515,
         "se": 0.017628463425222854,
         "t": -0.605300229795827,
         "term": "treat"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 6 rows were dropped because one of 'turnout_party_share', 'treat' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0074 a8f2f3d2bfe1b834494e7b20cbb825bc06c6a0f0ea36f700043716992663d857

   sha256 do resultado

   d30626deb89559fc9ebab2ece72caec466a6a30a5214faf402783bdc6a139f7d

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_f9ebece1naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.treat = -0,01067.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_7b1d9d35:coef.treat"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,01067

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.treat = -0,01067.

   Figuras citadas: call_7b1d9d35:coef.treat · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_7b1d9d35:coef.treat = -0,0106705-0.010670512962234724 (se 0,01762850.017628463425222854)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-0.01067051296 in [-0.1727477669, -9.094875179e-05]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada-0.01067051296 vs -0.08641935780540233
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.01762846343 vs 0.04404510666000531

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• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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