Tarefa causcibench_real.q014

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Do legislators tend to respond to out-of-district emails?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Do legislators tend to respond to out-of-district emails?

   broockman_black_politicians (agent)

   This data is from a randomized field experiment in which fictional emails, appearing to come from Black constituents, were sent to legislators across the United States. The purpose was to test whether being outside a legislator's district reduced the likelihood of receiving a response, and whether Black legislators were more likely to respond regardless of electoral incentives. The main focus is on differences in responsiveness based on the race of the legislator and the sender's eligibility to vote. Variables include: leg_black: 1 if the legislator is Black, 0 otherwise treat_out: 1 if the email was from an out-of-district sender, 0 otherwise responded: 1 if the legislator responded to the email, 0 otherwise totalpop: Population of the legislator's district medianhhincom: Median household income in the district black_medianhh: Median household income among Black residents in the district white_medianhh: Median household income among White residents in the district blackpercent: Percentage of the district's population that is Black statessquireindex: State legislative professionalism index (Squire index) nonblacknonwhite: 1 if the legislator is neither Black nor White, 0 otherwise urbanpercent: Percentage of the district that is urban leg_senator: 1 if the legislator is a senator, 0 otherwise leg_democrat: 1 if the legislator is a Democrat, 0 otherwise south: 1 if the legislator represents a Southern state, 0 otherwise

   file 414450c964cacbde724fd24906b61bb65232c0ae9c73a1bc021dbce1ea058022 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_919a68c4referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: ols

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "controls": [
         "leg_black",
         "leg_democrat",
         "south",
         "leg_senator",
         "blackpercent",
         "black_medianhh",
         "white_medianhh",
         "statessquireindex",
         "urbanpercent",
         "nonblacknonwhite",
         "totalpop"
       ],
       "dataset": "broockman_black_politicians",
       "x": [
         "treat_out"
       ],
       "y": "responded"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_b2f8d1fddecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: ols

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [
       "leg_black",
       "leg_democrat",
       "south",
       "leg_senator",
       "blackpercent",
       "black_medianhh",
       "white_medianhh",
       "statessquireindex",
       "urbanpercent",
       "nonblacknonwhite",
       "totalpop"
     ],
     "dataset": "broockman_black_politicians",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "treat_out"
     ],
     "y": "responded"
   }

   Figuras call_b2f8d1fd

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.treat_out Coefficient on treat_out in the regression of responded	-0,267231	-0.2672311245850423	0,0126130.01261301217487693	-0,291958 – -0,242505

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 5.5935593
   • k = 1313
   • r2 = 0,08951250.08951247549215935
   • df_resid = 5.5805580
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.48837892998224314,
         "ci_low": 0.38768337474520703,
         "coef": 0.4380311523637251,
         "p": 1.2714603443366106e-63,
         "se": 0.02568254164730191,
         "t": 17.055599807028546,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.24250471156870912,
         "ci_low": -0.29195753760137544,
         "coef": -0.2672311245850423,
         "p": 6.911875053915033e-96,
         "se": 0.01261301217487693,
         "t": -21.186939398768143,
         "term": "treat_out"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.02531981050144974,
         "ci_low": -0.12472458323946961,
         "coef": -0.049702386369009935,
         "p": 0.1940790865210647,
         "se": 0.03826903165809239,
         "t": -1.2987625820550346,
         "term": "leg_black"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.02483088220920489,
         "ci_low": -0.07800364679614565,
         "coef": -0.05141726450267527,
         "p": 0.0001514218793190987,
         "se": 0.013561787685580083,
         "t": -3.791333834059796,
         "term": "leg_democrat"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.027741401504178594,
         "ci_low": -0.03798279148815787,
         "coef": -0.005120694991989637,
         "p": 0.7600156561639032,
         "se": 0.016763046986409097,
         "t": -0.3054751917202953,
         "term": "south"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.12098530704268856,
         "ci_low": 0.05735880384106013,
         "coef": 0.08917205544187434,
         "p": 4.081622860417621e-8,
         "se": 0.016228028282890748,
         "t": 5.4949408447783314,
         "term": "leg_senator"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.21868762831031277,
         "ci_low": -0.044135419495201195,
         "coef": 0.08727610440755579,
         "p": 0.19297707465150193,
         "se": 0.06703338449494219,
         "t": 1.301979678709807,
         "term": "blackpercent"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.013638766359236408,
         "ci_low": -0.014010408747909871,
         "coef": -0.00018582119433673108,
         "p": 0.9789788869718461,
         "se": 0.007051960630548766,
         "t": -0.02635028810736156,
         "term": "black_medianhh"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.04155633334143796,
         "ci_low": 0.0005762089856204029,
         "coef": 0.021066271163529184,
         "p": 0.04389824586536693,
         "se": 0.010452037808445318,
         "t": 2.015518078829326,
         "term": "white_medianhh"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.6283875560357884,
         "ci_low": 0.3468114165587721,
         "coef": 0.4875994862972803,
         "p": 1.2417738938837578e-11,
         "se": 0.071816386651644,
         "t": 6.78952964679849,
         "term": "statessquireindex"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.059030077242813624,
         "ci_low": -0.032548278457154,
         "coef": 0.013240899392829813,
         "p": 0.5708133628583375,
         "se": 0.023357187203738528,
         "t": 0.5668875827098945,
         "term": "urbanpercent"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.02433299949662531,
         "ci_low": -0.09491329006501581,
         "coef": -0.035290145284195246,
         "p": 0.24596482188488095,
         "se": 0.03041393228076323,
         "t": -1.1603282652968954,
         "term": "nonblacknonwhite"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.0018651697086579221,
         "ci_low": -0.005297991404080102,
         "coef": -0.003581580556369012,
         "p": 0.00004361639910613996,
         "se": 0.0008755459558558036,
         "t": -4.090682542035376,
         "term": "totalpop"
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   broockman_black_politicians b96d5891f0e7beff3062ed222dc9d9eae8bf1955fa80fb0fd7318a05f0b198b0

   sha256 do resultado

   2fca65855b907cf8f46103b00a2b03c369f3bdf9449f101b37fa3d68ae54c392

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_0deb45f9referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.treat_out = -0,2672.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_b2f8d1fd:coef.treat_out"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,2672

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.treat_out = -0,2672.

   Figuras citadas: call_b2f8d1fd:coef.treat_out · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_b2f8d1fd:coef.treat_out = -0,267231-0.2672311245850423 (se 0,0126130.01261301217487693)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória-0.2672311246 vs 0.128

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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