Tarefa causcibench_real.q027

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Does having access to electricity increase kerosene expenditures?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

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Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Does having access to electricity increase kerosene expenditures?

   thomas_effects_of (agent)

   The dataset was collected to better understand the impacts of rural electrification at the household level, particularly in regions where electricity access was expanding but remained incomplete. The data comes from a household survey conducted across 686 households in 120 habitations in Uttar Pradesh, India. According to state regulations, households must be located within 40 meters of a power pole to be eligible for a legal electricity connection. Using this rule, the study sampled households situated 20-35 meters from the nearest pole, which were eligible to get electricity from the given pole, and 45-60 meters from the pole, those that were ineligible. Houses in the 35-45 meter range are excluded to minimize measurement error. The survey targeted areas with a balanced mix of electrified and non-electrified households and collected detailed information on household demographics, expenditures, appliance ownership and use, and daily activities. The variables are: food_expenditure: total monthly household expenditure on food in rupees education_expenditure: total monthly household expenditure on education in rupees kerosene_expenditure: total monthly household expenditure on kerosene in rupees total_expenditure: total monthly household expenditure in rupees age: age of the head of the household religion: 1 = Hindu, 0 = otherwise distance: distance of the household from the electric grid treat: 1 if the household is actually connected to the grid, 0 if not connected to the grid forcing: 1 if the household is eligible to get connected to the grid (within 40 meters), 0 if the household is not eligible to get connected to the grid kerosene_lamps: 1 = household has kerosene lamp, 0 = no kerosene lamp num_kerosene_lamps: number of kerosene wick lamps and lanterns owned by the household kerosene_lamp_hours: number of hours kerosene lamps are used daily kerosene_other: liters of kerosene used for other household purposes lighting_hours: total daily hours of household light usage child_lighting: daily hours of lighting used by children for reading and studying adult_lighting: daily hours of lighting used by adults for reading and studying child_activity: number of hours children spend at home in a given day adult_activity: number of hours adults spend at home in a given day appliances: number of appliances owned by the household appliance_use: number of daily hours using appliances by the household satisfaction_reliability: satisfaction with the reliability of lighting satisfaction_cost: satisfaction with the cost of lighting satisfaction_safety: satisfaction with the safety of lighting satisfaction_brightness: satisfaction with the brightness of lighting satisfaction: overall satisfaction with lighting satisfaction_chng: change in satisfaction with lighting over the past five years elec_value: willingness to pay for adequate electricity income_increase: belief that electrification will increase household income business_interest: interest in starting a new business due to electrification satisfaction_business: belief that electrification supports business aspirations aspirations: mean value of five questions measuring general aspirations knowledge: battery of questions related to knowledge of politics and popular culture

   file 4f4de9dbacecbfc6a5234e9fd8e9000d07aae7490af851fc4a6037813cb4e89a · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_0988ed40referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "thomas_effects_of",
       "endog": [
         "treat"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "gender",
         "birthplace",
         "age",
         "religion",
         "caste",
         "Pole"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "forcing"
       ],
       "y": "kerosene_expenditure"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_d0526f22decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "thomas_effects_of",
     "endog": [
       "treat"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "gender",
       "birthplace",
       "age",
       "religion",
       "caste",
       "Pole"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "forcing"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "kerosene_expenditure"
   }

   Figuras call_d0526f22

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.treat 2SLS effect of treat on kerosene_expenditure	20,8758	20.8758380782863	8,191798.191786590931319	4,79152 – 36,9602

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.treat = 444,843444.84285482411696
   • partial_r2.treat = 0,394580.3945803744747516
   • weak_instrument = false
   • n_obs = 686686
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 326.43110359843035,
         "ci_low": 94.88962144047454,
         "coef": 210.66036251945246,
         "p": 0.0003782109966225076,
         "se": 58.962345553732675,
         "t": 3.5727948157604525,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -2.279355105977551,
         "ci_low": -39.86166719479803,
         "coef": -21.07051115038779,
         "p": 0.0280270892168681,
         "se": 9.570385623503782,
         "t": -2.2016365880431197,
         "term": "gender"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 4.725808257675901,
         "ci_low": -33.07497188111058,
         "coef": -14.174581811717339,
         "p": 0.14134240821899344,
         "se": 9.626018802208916,
         "t": -1.4725279581278865,
         "term": "birthplace"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.19446615280220098,
         "ci_low": -0.5375807585252048,
         "coef": -0.17155730286150195,
         "p": 0.35774893397689966,
         "se": 0.18641671697421197,
         "t": -0.9202892618543131,
         "term": "age"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 19.83420135698055,
         "ci_low": -3.679641013589306,
         "coef": 8.077280171695623,
         "p": 0.17780362151054518,
         "se": 5.987831148993543,
         "t": 1.3489492222995103,
         "term": "religion"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 10.871085927056297,
         "ci_low": -10.241408634401532,
         "coef": 0.31483864632738234,
         "p": 0.9533196679190292,
         "se": 5.376324744197484,
         "t": 0.05856019889185057,
         "term": "caste"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.036414473562146374,
         "ci_low": -0.2362737879723114,
         "coef": -0.1363441307672289,
         "p": 0.0075642302888311065,
         "se": 0.050894439512765934,
         "t": -2.6789592747755773,
         "term": "Pole"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 36.96015757891911,
         "ci_low": 4.791518577653488,
         "coef": 20.8758380782863,
         "p": 0.011041617825015773,
         "se": 8.191786590931319,
         "t": 2.5483864657066144,
         "term": "treat"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.634046648346992,
         "ci_low": 0.5260489429077557,
         "coef": 0.5800477956273739,
         "endog": "treat",
         "instrument": "forcing",
         "p": 2.600071637049728e-76,
         "se": 0.0275017589408641,
         "t": 21.09129808295632
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 21.407892683302222,
         "ci_low": 2.8100750350656973,
         "coef": 12.10898385918396,
         "instrument": "forcing",
         "p": 0.01078011517518706,
         "se": 4.73595893271754,
         "t": 2.5568177493117967
       }
     ]
   }

   • 1 rows were dropped because one of 'kerosene_expenditure', 'treat', 'forcing', 'gender', 'birthplace', 'age', 'religion', 'caste', 'Pole' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   thomas_effects_of 6738107f98a584269eea39939b4755fca0f62827d7ae58d618a4490ed8f66eab

   sha256 do resultado

   dc6272b67fa4bcf2488c92390ae791188f96774abc304ad4431dac221b312056

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_66104e1breferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.treat = 20,88.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_d0526f22:coef.treat"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   20,88

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.treat = 20,88.

   Figuras citadas: call_d0526f22:coef.treat · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_d0526f22:coef.treat = 20,875820.8758380782863 (se 8,191798.191786590931319)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória20.87583808 vs 17.557

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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