Tarefa causcibench_real.q081

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the effect of receiving any (not max) democracy assistance (vs. none) on democracy outcomes?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the effect of receiving any (not max) democracy assistance (vs. none) on democracy outcomes?

   oswald_computational (agent)

   This dataset contains country-year observations compiled from V-Dem, PEMA, World Bank, and UNHCR sources. It includes measures of democracy, democracy assistance, foreign aid, socioeconomic indicators, and country identifiers, with key variables lagged to reflect temporal relationships. Data variables v2x_polarchy: Democracy index, from 0 (least), 1 (most democratic) ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l: Dummy indicator for any democracy assistance, lagged by 2 years ipema_any_demo_assdiv_2l: Measures exogenous variation in democracy assistance, lagged by 2 years iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l: Dummy indicator for maximum democracy assistance, lagged 2 years iany_demo_all_maxdiv_2l: Measures exogenous variation in democracy assistance (max), lagged 2 years iwdi_pop_3l: Population, lagged by 3 years iwdi_oda_3l: Official development assistance (any foreign aid), lagged by 3 years iwdi_gdppc_3l: GDP per capita, lagged by 3 years iunhcr_ref_idp_3l: Number of refugees/internally displaced persons, lagged by 3 years iwdi_literacy_3l: Literacy rate, lagged by 3 years iwdi_fuel_3l: Access to fuel, lagged by 3 years country: Country identifier

   file 62eba7a6255f94d594b8652e718bf7feae28b5228729ce0205ee7351eed9b52e · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_076aa048referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "oswald_computational",
       "endog": [
         "ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "iwdi_pop_3l",
         "iwdi_oda_3l",
         "iwdi_gdppc_3l",
         "iunhcr_ref_idp_3l",
         "iwdi_literacy_3l",
         "iwdi_fuel_3l"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "ipema_any_demo_assdiv_2l"
       ],
       "y": "v2x_polyarchy"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_dd66f491decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "oswald_computational",
     "endog": [
       "ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "iwdi_pop_3l",
       "iwdi_oda_3l",
       "iwdi_gdppc_3l",
       "iunhcr_ref_idp_3l",
       "iwdi_literacy_3l",
       "iwdi_fuel_3l"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "ipema_any_demo_assdiv_2l"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "v2x_polyarchy"
   }

   Figuras call_dd66f491

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l 2SLS effect of ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l on v2x_polyarchy	2,18247	2.1824686515307032	0,9884850.9884852266381434	0,24223 – 4,12271

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l = 4,7614.76099811213436
   • partial_r2.ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l = 0,004799210.004799205949682306
   • weak_instrument = true
   • n_obs = 834834
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.38169095699426253,
         "ci_low": 0.11836440716598912,
         "coef": 0.2500276820801258,
         "p": 0.0002066333489478029,
         "se": 0.06707794141505957,
         "t": 3.7274203233671757,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 9.882732196408033e-9,
         "ci_low": 2.3320775081162504e-10,
         "coef": 5.057969973609829e-9,
         "p": 0.0399308242912372,
         "se": 2.458051555633163e-9,
         "t": 2.0577151695693217,
         "term": "iwdi_pop_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 6.753661837794868e-11,
         "ci_low": -3.9174533505548523e-10,
         "coef": -1.621043583387683e-10,
         "p": 0.16625052849520433,
         "se": 1.169942339103027e-10,
         "t": -1.3855756212998553,
         "term": "iwdi_oda_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.00010855542971910444,
         "ci_low": 0.000010297737813618774,
         "coef": 0.0000594265837663616,
         "p": 0.017811584464592644,
         "se": 0.000025029468944598885,
         "t": 2.374264667696247,
         "term": "iwdi_gdppc_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -1.260547101445525e-7,
         "ci_low": -8.204221134979212e-7,
         "coef": -4.7323841182123685e-7,
         "p": 0.0076093994054689295,
         "se": 1.7687823743196043e-7,
         "t": -2.6755038872618626,
         "term": "iunhcr_ref_idp_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.002024471335791879,
         "ci_low": -0.0014814759238597785,
         "coef": 0.00027149770596605026,
         "p": 0.7612033219870779,
         "se": 0.0008930801889918359,
         "t": 0.3040014875624255,
         "term": "iwdi_literacy_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.000923861173016381,
         "ci_low": -0.0071031361442093904,
         "coef": -0.0040134986586128855,
         "p": 0.01095905666483917,
         "se": 0.0015740647677780206,
         "t": -2.5497671638241517,
         "term": "iwdi_fuel_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 4.122707117379052,
         "ci_low": 0.24223018568235433,
         "coef": 2.1824686515307032,
         "p": 0.027525891630339774,
         "se": 0.9884852266381434,
         "t": 2.207892027838716,
         "term": "ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.7251774857030199,
         "ci_low": 0.038339233605391154,
         "coef": 0.3817583596542055,
         "endog": "ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l",
         "instrument": "ipema_any_demo_assdiv_2l",
         "p": 0.029392808415853483,
         "se": 0.17496031473420356,
         "t": 2.1819711529106796
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 1.058341438573025,
         "ci_low": 0.6080098662371491,
         "coef": 0.8331756524050871,
         "instrument": "ipema_any_demo_assdiv_2l",
         "p": 8.755078724880576e-13,
         "se": 0.11471427718244527,
         "t": 7.26305105928513
       }
     ]
   }

   • 320 rows were dropped because one of 'v2x_polyarchy', 'ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l', 'ipema_any_demo_assdiv_2l', 'iwdi_pop_3l', 'iwdi_oda_3l', 'iwdi_gdppc_3l', 'iunhcr_ref_idp_3l', 'iwdi_literacy_3l', 'iwdi_fuel_3l' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   oswald_computational bd7df9f2bf63382b825d88edb3d807e44ceaa3962e781866c22e2c063ef5191a

   sha256 do resultado

   fd62e70827556ed9c85e2aba04516a20017b58db668f8e396c11b02b9c63adeb

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_565c9705referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l = 2,182.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_dd66f491:coef.ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   2,182

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l = 2,182.

   Figuras citadas: call_dd66f491:coef.ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_dd66f491:coef.ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l = 2,182472.1824686515307032 (se 0,9884850.9884852266381434)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória2.182468652 vs 1.317

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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