Tarefa causcibench_real.q082

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the effect of receiving the highest level of democracy assistance (vs. less or none) on democracy outcomes?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the effect of receiving the highest level of democracy assistance (vs. less or none) on democracy outcomes?

   oswald_computational (agent)

   This dataset contains country-year observations compiled from V-Dem, PEMA, World Bank, and UNHCR sources. It includes measures of democracy, democracy assistance, foreign aid, socioeconomic indicators, and country identifiers, with key variables lagged to reflect temporal relationships. Data variables v2x_polarchy: Democracy index, from 0 (least), 1 (most democratic) ipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l: Dummy indicator for any democracy assistance, lagged by 2 years ipema_any_demo_assdiv_2l: Measures exogenous variation in democracy assistance, lagged by 2 years iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l: Dummy indicator for maximum democracy assistance, lagged 2 years iany_demo_all_maxdiv_2l: Measures exogenous variation in democracy assistance (max), lagged 2 years iwdi_pop_3l: Population, lagged by 3 years iwdi_oda_3l: Official development assistance (any foreign aid), lagged by 3 years iwdi_gdppc_3l: GDP per capita, lagged by 3 years iunhcr_ref_idp_3l: Number of refugees/internally displaced persons, lagged by 3 years iwdi_literacy_3l: Literacy rate, lagged by 3 years iwdi_fuel_3l: Access to fuel, lagged by 3 years country: Country identifier

   file 62eba7a6255f94d594b8652e718bf7feae28b5228729ce0205ee7351eed9b52e · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_727b9b1breferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "oswald_computational",
       "endog": [
         "iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "iwdi_pop_3l",
         "iwdi_oda_3l",
         "iwdi_gdppc_3l",
         "iunhcr_ref_idp_3l",
         "iwdi_literacy_3l",
         "iwdi_fuel_3l"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "iany_demo_all_maxdiv_2l"
       ],
       "y": "v2x_polyarchy"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_7736a84fdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "oswald_computational",
     "endog": [
       "iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "iwdi_pop_3l",
       "iwdi_oda_3l",
       "iwdi_gdppc_3l",
       "iunhcr_ref_idp_3l",
       "iwdi_literacy_3l",
       "iwdi_fuel_3l"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "iany_demo_all_maxdiv_2l"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "v2x_polyarchy"
   }

   Figuras call_7736a84f

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l 2SLS effect of iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l on v2x_polyarchy	5,3765	5.376504520436289	5,932985.932981566062237	-6,26899 – 17,022

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l = 0,8016020.8016018904906643
   • partial_r2.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l = 0,0007921260.0007921255549880879
   • weak_instrument = true
   • n_obs = 834834
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.6349481471604954,
         "ci_low": -0.3360369857596345,
         "coef": 0.14945558070043044,
         "p": 0.5458453836493118,
         "se": 0.24734187989545864,
         "t": 0.604246966844431,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 3.146531692231359e-8,
         "ci_low": -1.1748985743715283e-8,
         "coef": 9.858165589299153e-9,
         "p": 0.3707610029805467,
         "se": 1.1008105579991542e-8,
         "t": 0.8955369766090785,
         "term": "iwdi_pop_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 6.426080734324405e-10,
         "ci_low": -1.4437922317152717e-9,
         "coef": -4.005920791414156e-10,
         "p": 0.4512221562690298,
         "se": 5.314748456937936e-10,
         "t": -0.7537366676657631,
         "term": "iwdi_oda_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.0003315489407897481,
         "ci_low": -0.00011366027540081793,
         "coef": 0.0001089443326944651,
         "p": 0.3370201570446313,
         "se": 0.00011340944443524892,
         "t": 0.9606283959592696,
         "term": "iwdi_gdppc_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 8.956573002839897e-7,
         "ci_low": -0.0000028617575242048515,
         "coef": -9.83050111960431e-7,
         "p": 0.3046866241117915,
         "se": 9.571372565109927e-7,
         "t": -1.0270732909759432,
         "term": "iunhcr_ref_idp_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.004661560605063107,
         "ci_low": -0.006174000650699544,
         "coef": -0.0007562200228182189,
         "p": 0.7841719690211059,
         "se": 0.0027601741776031763,
         "t": -0.27397547189391136,
         "term": "iwdi_literacy_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.004882376875649971,
         "ci_low": -0.015905696270518316,
         "coef": -0.005511659697434172,
         "p": 0.2982553582087697,
         "se": 0.005295406610309562,
         "t": -1.0408378625172219,
         "term": "iwdi_fuel_3l"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 17.02199879938835,
         "ci_low": -6.26898975851577,
         "coef": 5.376504520436289,
         "p": 0.36509100217542406,
         "se": 5.932981566062237,
         "t": 0.906206173164417,
         "term": "iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.55384051433135,
         "ci_low": -0.20685831969756274,
         "coef": 0.1734910973168936,
         "endog": "iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l",
         "instrument": "iany_demo_all_maxdiv_2l",
         "p": 0.37087568808097354,
         "se": 0.19377503657254408,
         "t": 0.8953222271845284
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 1.180638258582123,
         "ci_low": 0.684913079377339,
         "coef": 0.932775668979731,
         "instrument": "iany_demo_all_maxdiv_2l",
         "p": 3.683301105821657e-13,
         "se": 0.12627752328944272,
         "t": 7.386711781175031
       }
     ]
   }

   • 320 rows were dropped because one of 'v2x_polyarchy', 'iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l', 'iany_demo_all_maxdiv_2l', 'iwdi_pop_3l', 'iwdi_oda_3l', 'iwdi_gdppc_3l', 'iunhcr_ref_idp_3l', 'iwdi_literacy_3l', 'iwdi_fuel_3l' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   oswald_computational bd7df9f2bf63382b825d88edb3d807e44ceaa3962e781866c22e2c063ef5191a

   sha256 do resultado

   94f2c15529f138d1e97c581e68279813310c348805db4d3454950beddcfb1804

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_845ae4a3referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l = 5,377.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_7736a84f:coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   5,377

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l = 5,377.

   Figuras citadas: call_7736a84f:coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_7736a84f:coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l = 5,37655.376504520436289 (se 5,932985.932981566062237)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória5.37650452 vs 2.062

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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