Tarefa causcibench_real.q098

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

In the UK, in very close elections, does just barely winning make it more likely that the party's candidate will stand again as the incumbent in the next election?

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1. 0Início

   In the UK, in very close elections, does just barely winning make it more likely that the party's candidate will stand again as the incumbent in the next election?

   song_estimating_incumbency (agent)

   The dataset is a panel of electoral constituencies across multiple countries and years, designed to study incumbency effects. Each row corresponds to a party's performance in a given constituency at a given election. Dataset Variables: year: The year of the election country: The country where the election took place (e.g., Canada, Japan, UK, USA, Romania, etc.) office: Name of the office being contested (e.g., House of Commons, Mayor) cst_n: Constituency identifier (e.g., ""abbotsford"", ""abitibi"") l_vmargin: Lagged vote margin: the party's vote margin in the previous election (Values more than 0 indicate the party won (positive) and values less than 0 indicate the party lost (negative)) vmargin: Current vote margin: the party's vote margin in the current election vs: Vote share of the party in the current election (between 0 and 1) win: Outcome of the current election: 1 means the party won the seat, 0 means the party lost l_win: Lagged win indicator: 1 means the party won the previous election in this constituency, 0 means the party lost inc: Incumbency indicator for the party's candidate in the current election: 1 means candidate is the incumbent, 0 means not incumbent, -1 appears to mark cases where incumbency is undefined or missing office_num: Encoded office type, combining country and office (e.g., Canada, House) rd_s: Indicator variable that equals 1 if the observation is part of a subset of elections defined by narrow vote margins, and 0 otherwise

   file f9455065815897f357981f2f97871fe8b7137acf6ef1b2772241d4bf05de9b10 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_9b0f08fcreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.rdd

     {
       "cutoff": 0,
       "dataset": "song_estimating_incumbency",
       "running": "l_vmargin",
       "y": "win"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.rddv0.1.0call_878d39bcdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Argumentos

   {
     "bandwidth": null,
     "cluster": null,
     "cutoff": 0,
     "dataset": "song_estimating_incumbency",
     "kernel": "triangular",
     "level": 0.95,
     "polynomial": 1,
     "running": "l_vmargin",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "win"
   }

   Figuras call_878d39bc

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   effect Jump in win at the cutoff of l_vmargin	0,0987102	0.09871020361757638	0,01638180.016381752687952524	0,0666026 – 0,130818

   Diagnósticos

   • bandwidth = 0,1053170.1053167716797159
   • bandwidth_method = "IK"
   • n_left = 8.0468046
   • n_right = 8.4598459
   • kernel = "triangular"
   • polynomial = 11
   • bandwidth_sensitive = false
   • n_obs = 57.18757187
   • se_type = "HC1"

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "sensitivity": [
       {
         "bandwidth": 0.05265838583985795,
         "ci_high": 0.13529238135744426,
         "ci_low": 0.04547169666360212,
         "estimate": 0.09038203901052319,
         "multiplier": 0.5,
         "n_left": 4266,
         "n_right": 4455,
         "se": 0.02291386102049228
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 0.1053167716797159,
         "ci_high": 0.13081784888960554,
         "ci_low": 0.06660255834554721,
         "estimate": 0.09871020361757638,
         "multiplier": 1,
         "n_left": 8046,
         "n_right": 8459,
         "se": 0.016381752687952524
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 0.2106335433594318,
         "ci_high": 0.14556329994591158,
         "ci_low": 0.09953818771028664,
         "estimate": 0.1225507438280991,
         "multiplier": 2,
         "n_left": 14278,
         "n_right": 14796,
         "se": 0.011741315809541695
       }
     ]
   }

   • 966 rows were dropped because one of 'win', 'l_vmargin' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   song_estimating_incumbency b92d2fca9483051609676957c56c11b23d396f4044f39bece8e32f8049a0c08d

   sha256 do resultado

   29fbea3cb8f969f3664d909f32d99435720101452fda5c452e3a10881df53704

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_8b9c7e1areferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,09871.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_878d39bc:effect"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,09871

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,09871.

   Figuras citadas: call_878d39bc:effect · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_878d39bc:effect = 0,09871020.09871020361757638 (se 0,01638180.016381752687952524)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.09871020362 vs 0.086

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• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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