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Tarefa causcibench_real.q172

causcibench_realagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b

Veredito

falhouDecidida pela verificação 1: figura da resposta próxima, nenhuma estimativa citada.
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

Pergunta feita ao analista

How does gaining legal access to alcohol at age 21 affect illegal drugs arrest rates?

Resposta

Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

causcibench_real.gold.q172

Fonte
CauSciBench real split, data/metadata_json/real_input.json at d9bb43a, id 172
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
real_input.json, record id 172: fields effect and std_error
Trecho
id 172 effect 5.595 std_error 1.297
Valor como publicado
5.595
Erro-padrão como publicado
1.297
Valor
5,5955.595 (se 1,2971.297)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Written by scripts/freeze_causcibench_real.py from the pinned file; equal to the `answer` and `std_error` of the same id in data/metadata_csv/real_input.csv at the pin.
sha256 da cópia lida
c1f4c8930675afff63d816d8ed066941ae92697e7bfc31e9d38519398dd80438 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/causalNLP/CauSciBench/d9bb43a2d90f261978cc5ac0b628c0484f6e8956/data/metadata_json/real_input.json
Licença
CauSciBench repository (MIT for code; metadata as published in the repository)
  • #1 figura da resposta próxima: 5,5955.595 · relativa 0.05

Verificações

Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
#VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
0resposta com lastro
every number backed
obrigatóriapassou—[]———
1figura da resposta próxima
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
obrigatóriafalhou5,5955.595—relativa 0.05causcibench_real.gold.q172—

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

caminho de referência do item · metadata_rule

Referência: infer.olsO agente não fez uma chamada de estimação que a resposta cite.

Pendências do caminho de referência: needs_spec:bandwidth

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

  1. 0Início

    How does gaining legal access to alcohol at age 21 affect illegal drugs arrest rates?

    carpenter_the_minimum_legal_drinking (agent)

    This dataset contains comprehensive arrest and criminal justice records from California covering individuals around their 21st birthday. The data captures detailed information on various types of criminal offenses, demographic characteristics, and temporal variables that enable analysis of crime patterns across different age groups. The dataset includes both raw count data and population-adjusted rates for multiple categories of criminal activity, spanning from serious felonies to minor infractions and regulatory violations. Variable Descriptions: days_to_21: Number of days until or since an individual's 21st birthday years_to_21: Years until or since turning 21 all: Total number of arrests across all offense categories felony: Count of felony-level arrests misdemeanor: Count of misdemeanor-level arrests fbi_offense_miss: FBI-classified misdemeanor offenses violent: Total violent crime arrests murder: Homicide arrests manslaughter: Manslaughter arrests rape: Sexual assault arrests robbery: Robbery arrests assault: Total assault arrests aggravated_assault: Aggravated assault arrests ot_assault: Other types of assault property: Total property crime arrests burglary: Burglary arrests larceny: Theft arrests mv_theft: Motor vehicle theft arrests stolen_prop_buy_rec_poss: Receiving stolen property arrests vandalism: Property damage arrests ill_drugs: Total drug-related arrests cocaine_opio_sale_manuf: Cocaine/opiate sales and manufacturing arrests mj_sale_manuf: Marijuana sales and manufacturing arrests dang_non_narc_sale_manuf: Other dangerous drug sales/manufacturing arrests cocaine_opio_posses: Cocaine/opiate possession arrests mj_posses: Marijuana possession arrests dang_non_narc_posses: Other dangerous drug possession arrests alcohol: Total alcohol-related arrests drunk_at_risk: Public intoxication arrests dui: Driving under the influence arrests liquor_laws: Liquor law violation arrests drunkeness_pc: Public drunkenness arrests disorderly_cond: Disorderly conduct arrests vagrancy: Vagrancy arrests arson: Arson arrests forgery_counterfit: Forgery and counterfeiting arrests fraud: Fraud arrests embezelment: Embezzlement arrests weapons: Weapons violations prostitution: Prostitution arrests sex_offenses: Sexual offense arrests bookmaking: Illegal gambling arrests all_other_gambling: Other gambling violations aga_family_child: Offenses against family and children curfew_loitering: Curfew and loitering violations runaways: Runaway arrests coded_on_offense: Arrests coded by primary offense county_ordinance: County ordinance violations outside_warrent: Out-of-jurisdiction warrant arrests traffic_violations: Traffic violation arrests hit_run_reckl_driv: Hit and run/reckless driving arrests parole_violation: Parole violation arrests dump_or_litter: Illegal dumping/littering violations trespass: Trespassing arrests violate_court_order: Court order violations failure_to_appear: Failure to appear in court cont_delinq_minor: Contributing to the delinquency of a minor not_classified: Unclassified arrests other_reported: Other reported offenses pop1, pop2, pop3: Population counts for different demographic groups pop_day1, pop_day2, pop_day3: Daily population estimates post: Binary indicator variable that is 1 if age >= 21, i.e., the individual is 21 linear, square, cubic: years_to_21 raised to the power of 1, 2, and 3 respectively linear_post, square_post, cubic_post: Interaction of linear, square, cubic with post birthday_19, birthday_20, birthday_21, birthday_22, birthday_23: Dummy variables for 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd birthdays birthday_19_1, birthday_20_1, birthday_21_1, birthday_22_1, birthday_23_1: Dummy variables for a day after the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd birthdays All variables with _r suffix represent population-adjusted rates corresponding to their count variable counterparts. These include crime-specific rates such as violent_r, property_r, alcohol_r, dui_r, and all_r, among others. The rate variables normalize the raw counts by relevant population denominators.

    file 3083a3b3ad5ad5d822488e13fe0b49c98bcca2c9ab621e4fdec0abab049efd59 · frame —
  2. 1Turno do modelo
    call_173852a7rules-1Fim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
    Chamadas pedidas
    • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
      {
        "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.",
        "caveats": [],
        "figure_refs": []
      }
  3. 2Guarda
    resposta aceita
    Números encontrados
    —
    Sem lastro
    —
    Não citados
    —
    1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
  4. 3Resposta

    Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

    Figuras citadas: — · Parada: answered
  5. 4Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
  6. 5Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatóriano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

Épocas × verificações

Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
#01
Época 1passoufalhou

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

Downloads desta tarefa

Pacote da tarefa (.zip)
90,0 KB · sha256 5f661e59205f2fd183975639a1fdfd28878d5a3cb4c337f797c056e4331812b5

O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.

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attachments/433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420.json2,4 KB433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420
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specs/causcibench_real.q172.json8,2 KB4c9a5015d3328c3501c3b3906dad31dd3f66287b917649bed8e4c7c4688b29cb
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