Tarefa causcibench_real.q055

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the effect of electing a Democratic on cooperation with federal immigration authorities?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the effect of electing a Democratic on cooperation with federal immigration authorities?

   thompson_how_partisan (agent)

   This dataset assembles county-year measures of sheriff cooperation with federal immigration enforcement, linked to partisan sheriff election records and policy snapshots, with outcomes normalized by population or foreign-born counts and policy flags for specific cooperation practices in 2015 and 2018. Core sources include TRAC's detainer records, ICE reports on background checks and removals, an Immigrant Legal Resource Center (ILRC) policy survey, and compiled lists of 2018 287(g) participants and sanctuary sheriffs, all aggregated to the county level for analysis. Variables: year, policy_year: Calendar year for outcomes; policy_year tags policy snapshots (e.g., ILRC 2015 policies and 2018 enforcement scale) used in the dataset share_detained_sheriff: Compliance rate = detained/requested for sheriff-run facilities in the county-year; missing when no requests occur share_detained_crime0, share_detained_crime1, share_detained_crime2, share_detained_crime3: Compliance shares restricted to individuals with no conviction, misdemeanor, non-aggravated felony, and aggravated felony, respectively, based on TRAC severity groupings no_287g, no_detention_contract, no_ice_alerts, ice_interrogation_limits: Binary indicators from ILRC's 2015 policy inventory for the absence of a 287(g) agreement, absence of ICE detention contracts, no routine alerts to ICE about releases, and limits on ICE questioning in county jails sanctuary_2018, in_287g_2018: 2018 policy flags from ICE archival listings (287(g) participation) and FAIR's sanctuary identifications at the sheriff/county level enforcement_scale_2018: Combined policy scale in 2018 taking values -1 (sanctuary), 0 (neither), +1 (287(g)), summarizing county-level enforcement posture large_county: Indicator for counties above the 100,000 population threshold (2000 Census), used to denote the high-population subsample emphasized in robustness checks county_id, election_id: Stable identifiers linking county-year records to sheriff election records and grouping observations by the election that seated the incumbent sheriff rv, rv2, rv3, rv4, rv5: Centered two-party Democratic vote share in the most recent sheriff election (Dem share minus 50) and its higher-order powers for flexible functional control; supplied as ready-to-use analysis design covariates treat: Indicator that the sitting sheriff is a Democrat for the election cycle in force in the county-year; treat_rv, treat_rv2, treat_rv3 are interactions for flexible post-win slope adjustments in modeling all_sheriff_per1k_fb, all_sheriff_per1k_pop, log_all_sheriff: Total detainer requests to sheriff facilities per 1,000 foreign-born, per 1,000 residents, and log(requests+1), respectively, capturing ICE request intensity normalized by local exposure detained_sheriff_per1k_fb, detained_sheriff_per1k_pop, log_detained_sheriff: Total sheriff-facilitated detentions per 1,000 foreign-born, per 1,000 residents, and log(detentions+1), respectively sub_per_fb: FBI background check submissions associated with the county's jail intake per 1,000 foreign-born, based on ICE reporting for Secure Communities/Priority Enforcement periods rem_per1k_fb: Removals/deportations associated with jail-identified individuals per 1,000 foreign-born, from ICE progress reports miss_share_detained_sheriff: Indicator that the compliance rate is undefined due to zero detainer requests in the county-year, allowing explicit missingness tracking for downstream analysis; pre_share_detained_sheriff, pre_all_sheriff_per1k_fb, pre_all_sheriff_per1k_pop, pre_log_all_sheriff, pre_detained_sheriff_per1k_fb, pre_detained_sheriff_per1k_pop, pre_log_detained_sheriff, pre_year: Baseline (pre-period) versions of the corresponding outcomes anchored to pre_year for adjustment and diagnostics, aligned with lag constructions described in the study materials"

   file 219663aca0ff32ad5332456ddeda6a08da8f5cf849f07b1041ea7b63465abd99 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_9f63899bnaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "thompson_how_partisan",
       "x": [
         "treat"
       ],
       "y": "share_detained_sheriff"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_3633dc63decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "thompson_how_partisan",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "treat"
     ],
     "y": "share_detained_sheriff"
   }

   Figuras call_3633dc63

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.treat Coefficient on treat in the regression of share_detained_sheriff	-0,0173135	-0.017313470048740457	0,01281290.012812938188523169	-0,0424412 – 0,00781423

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 2.0562056
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,0008902270.0008902270941630874
   • df_resid = 2.0542054
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5121692561067254,
         "ci_low": 0.47787620814444604,
         "coef": 0.49502273212558573,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.008743232146977581,
         "t": 56.61781865150504,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.007814234240149934,
         "ci_low": -0.04244117433763085,
         "coef": -0.017313470048740457,
         "p": 0.17676448914995885,
         "se": 0.012812938188523169,
         "t": -1.3512490104922628,
         "term": "treat"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 1988 rows were dropped because one of 'share_detained_sheriff', 'treat' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   thompson_how_partisan 27dfd3e5b3af61d1d1cc217815059b9e48a979187dbb63e8b224be30ec1d24cc

   sha256 do resultado

   4b831a9b710d70262de2a4f50439c5d6ce01b1f05bff40bb38a0aaa3de23f688

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_637d885cnaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.treat = -0,01731.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_3633dc63:coef.treat"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,01731

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.treat = -0,01731.

   Figuras citadas: call_3633dc63:coef.treat · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_3633dc63:coef.treat = -0,0173135-0.017313470048740457 (se 0,01281290.012812938188523169)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória-0.01731347005 vs -0.006

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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