Tarefa causcibench_real.q058

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

How does an increase in presidential advertising intensity (measured in Gross Ratings Points) affect voter turnout in the presidential election?

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Verificações

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Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   How does an increase in presidential advertising intensity (measured in Gross Ratings Points) affect voter turnout in the presidential election?

   krasno_do_televised (agent)

   The dataset aggregates information for 128 ""media zones,"" defined as the intersection of a state and a media market, from the 2000 U.S. presidential election. It combines data on voter turnout, television advertising, candidate visits, and voter contact to study how presidential TV ads influenced voter participation. Advertising measures come from the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), turnout and population statistics are drawn from the America Votes series and the U.S. Census, candidate visit data are taken from Althaus, Nardulli, and Shaw (2002), and voter contact rates are based on the 2000 Annenberg survey. Data variables are: state: State dma: Media Market turn00: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 2000 turn96: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1996 turn92: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1992 turn88: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1988 turn90: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1990 turn94: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1994 turn98: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1998 senate: Turnout in most recent Senate election ('98 or '94) prezg: Presidential ad GRPs seng: Senatorial ad GRPs hseg: House ad GRPs issg: Issue ad GRPs othg: Other office ad GRPs govg: Gubernatorial ad GRPs balg: Ballot initiative ad GRPs pq: p(1 - p) p: Turnout in 2000 sum_grp: GRPs - all ads starting 7/1/2000 fall_grp: GRPs - all ads starting 9/1/2000 yr_grp: GRPs - all ads starting 1/1/2000 bush: Number of candidate visits by Bush cheney: Number of candidate visits by Cheney gore: Number of candidate visits by Gore lieb: Number of candidate visits by Lieberman n0901: Number polled 9/1/2000 cont0901: Proportion reporting being contacted about presidential election, 9/1/2000 n1001: Number polled 10/1/2000 cont1001: Proportion reporting being contacted about presidential election, 10/1/2000 n1016: Number polled 10/16/2000 cont1016: Proportion reporting being contacted about presidential election, 10/16/2000 yr_att: Attack ad GRPs - starting 1/1/2000 yr_cont: Contrast ad GRPs - starting 1/1/2000 yr_pro: Promotional ad GRPs - starting 1/1/2000 sum_att: Attack ad GRPs - starting 7/1/2000 sum_cont: Contrast ad GRPs - starting 7/1/2000 sum_pro: Promotional ad GRPs - starting 7/1/2000 fall_att: Attack ad GRPs - starting 9/1/2000 fall_con: Contrast ad GRPs - starting 9/1/2000 fall_pro: Promotional ad GRPs - starting 9/1/2000 end_grp: GRPs - all ads, final three weeks end_att: Attack ad GRPs - final three weeks end_cont: Contrast ad GRPs - final three weeks end_pro: Promotional ad GRPs - final three weeks lncpop00: Log of citizen population, 2000 bg: Indicator for battleground state

   file 557f9bcc8be77116fb5f38df0e569469eadc7072aecd833022441be593288801 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_f621369anaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "krasno_do_televised",
       "x": [
         "prezg"
       ],
       "y": "turn00"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_8cb94e6cdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "krasno_do_televised",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "prezg"
     ],
     "y": "turn00"
   }

   Figuras call_8cb94e6c

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.prezg Coefficient on prezg in the regression of turn00	0,00160913	0.0016091314272217913	0,001410320.0014103229188498433	-0,00118186 – 0,00440012

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 128128
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,01094190.010941939209753948
   • df_resid = 126126
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5501259167616187,
         "ci_low": 0.5200789017826023,
         "coef": 0.5351024092721105,
         "p": 4.2967657586936264e-103,
         "se": 0.007591576890731079,
         "t": 70.48633201956272,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.004400119022939245,
         "ci_low": -0.0011818561684956627,
         "coef": 0.0016091314272217913,
         "p": 0.256047739487561,
         "se": 0.0014103229188498433,
         "t": 1.1409666578588127,
         "term": "prezg"
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   krasno_do_televised 9f4481d6eb3625cb6ec3d7b118be772ed1005e9362338b857e01fda87c3115ec

   sha256 do resultado

   820d3f6f4e3bc7472f77c94d729d2d48e79649334c8a61c4316993ce8619a585

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_27681b78naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.prezg = 0,001609.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_8cb94e6c:coef.prezg"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,001609

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.prezg = 0,001609.

   Figuras citadas: call_8cb94e6c:coef.prezg · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_8cb94e6c:coef.prezg = 0,001609130.0016091314272217913 (se 0,001410320.0014103229188498433)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.001609131427 vs 0.003

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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