Tarefa causcibench_real.q100

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Does winning a voucher reduce the likelihood of having a child?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

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Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Does winning a voucher reduce the likelihood of having a child?

   angrist_vouchers (agent)

   This dataset is an individual-level microdata file on applicants to Colombia's PACES secondary-school voucher program, combining lottery assignment records, follow-up survey responses, and achievement test participation indicators for cohorts in Bogota (1995, 1997) and Jamundi (1993). It is structured to support analysis of schooling trajectories, private versus public school attendance, household background, labor and family formation outcomes, and test-taking behavior for voucher-eligible youth, without embedding specific modeling choices. Variables include: ID: Numeric identifier linking each record to the original PACES applicant list, stable within the file and used to join administrative lottery status, survey outcomes, and test participation. BOG95SMP: Indicator for membership in the Bogota 1995 applicant cohort analysis sample (1 = Bogota 1995 cohort, 0 otherwise), aligning each individual with that specific city-year sampling frame. BOG97SMP: Indicator for membership in the Bogota 1997 applicant cohort analysis sample (1 = Bogota 1997 cohort, 0 otherwise), distinguishing this later application year within Bogota. JAM93SMP: Indicator for membership in the Jamundi 1993 applicant cohort analysis sample (1 = Jamundi 1993 cohort, 0 otherwise), identifying applicants from the suburban Cali site. SEX: Binary sex indicator at the individual level, derived from survey or name-based coding and used for gender-disaggregated description and outcome analysis. AGE: Applicant's age in completed years, typically imputed from the Colombian national ID at the time of program application and used as a key demographic control. AGE2: Square of age, capturing non-linear relationships between age and schooling outcomes or other behaviors such as work and marriage. HSVISIT: Indicator for interview mode (1 = household visit, 0 = telephone interview), reflecting fieldwork logistics and used to control for mode-related response differences. SCYFNSH: Measure summarizing schooling completion within the secondary cycle (for example, highest grade completed by survey date), constructed from detailed grade histories. INSCHL: Binary indicator for current school enrollment at the survey date (1 = currently in school, 0 = not enrolled), derived from self-reported enrollment status. PRSCH_C: Binary indicator for current private secondary school attendance (1 = enrolled in a private school at survey time, 0 = public school or not enrolled), used to describe current sector of schooling. PRSCHA_1: Indicator capturing private-school attendance at a key grade or early stage of secondary schooling (1 = attended a participating private secondary school at that stage, 0 otherwise), constructed from retrospective schooling histories. PRSCHA_2: Complementary indicator for private-school attendance at an additional grade or later stage of secondary schooling, allowing distinctions between initial and subsequent private enrollment episodes. VOUCH0: Binary lottery-assignment indicator for the PACES voucher offer (1 = offered a PACES scholarship via lottery, 0 = not offered), taken from administrative lottery records and used to distinguish voucher winners from losers. BOG95ASD: Indicator for inclusion in the Bogota 1995 achievement-test subsample (1 = invited/test sample for Bogota 1995, 0 otherwise), identifying records with linked standardized test scores. BOG97ASD: Indicator for inclusion in any Bogota 1997 achievement-related subsample if present, parallel in structure to BOG95ASD but for the 1997 cohort. JAM93ASD: Indicator for inclusion in any Jamundi 1993 achievement-test subsample if collected, flagging Jamundi test-takers within the broader applicant frame. DBOGOTA: City dummy for Bogota (1 = Bogota, 0 = other sites), aligning individuals with the capital city context for descriptive and regression controls. DJAMUNDI: City dummy for Jamundi (1 = Jamundi, 0 = other sites), capturing the suburban Cali site as distinct from Bogota. D1995: Application-year dummy (1 = applied in 1995, 0 otherwise), marking the Bogota 1995 cohort in pooled analyses across years. D1997: Application-year dummy (1 = applied in 1997, 0 otherwise), identifying the later Bogota cohort in multi-cohort analyses. D1993: Application-year dummy (1 = applied in 1993, 0 otherwise), corresponding to the Jamundi 1993 cohort. RESPONSE: Indicator that a valid 1998 follow-up survey interview was completed for the applicant (1 = interviewed, 0 = in sampling frame but not interviewed), capturing differential follow-up. TEST_TAK: Indicator that the applicant took the 1999 standardized achievement test (1 = test-taker, 0 = not tested), linking survey records to test-score availability. SEX_NAME: Auxiliary indicator of sex coded from first names in the application list, used to impute sex where direct survey information is missing. SVY: Survey-form or instrument indicator that flags the questionnaire version or survey group, enabling control for minor differences in question wording or survey conditions. PHONE: Indicator for having a telephone contact at application (1 = phone number recorded, 0 = no phone), reflecting contactability and part of the implicit sampling frame for telephone interviews. DAREA1-DAREA19: Set of neighborhood or large-area dummies for Bogota (and analogous groupings where applicable), capturing 19 residential areas used as geographic strata or controls. DMONTH1-DMONTH12: Interview-month dummies (1 = interviewed in the corresponding calendar month, 0 otherwise), representing survey timing over the fieldwork period. BOG95: Indicator for being in the Bogota 1995 cohort in contexts where this cohort is contrasted with others, often overlapping conceptually with BOG95SMP but used in some outcome subsamples. BOG97: Indicator for being in the Bogota 1997 cohort, similarly used as a cohort marker in pooled models. MOM_SCH: Mother's highest completed grade of schooling in years, as reported in the survey, serving as a parental human-capital measure. MOM_AGE: Mother's age in years at the time of survey, capturing parental lifecycle stage. MOM_MW: Indicator that the mother's wage exceeds a threshold multiple of the minimum wage (for example, more than two minimum wages), proxying maternal earnings capacity. DAD_SCH: Father's highest completed grade of schooling in years, measuring paternal education as part of family background. DAD_AGE: Father's age in years at the time of survey, capturing paternal lifecycle stage. DAD_MW: Indicator that the father's wage exceeds a threshold multiple of the minimum wage, summarizing paternal earnings potential. SEX2: Harmonized or alternative sex indicator used in the main analytic regressions, combining name-based and survey-based sex coding where necessary. STRATA1-STRATA6: Set of dummies for the six official Colombian socioeconomic residential strata, derived from utility-bill based classification in the application and used to capture household socioeconomic status. STRATAMS: Indicator for missing or unspecified socioeconomic stratum, preserving individuals with incomplete strata information in analyses. REPT6: Indicator that the applicant repeated sixth grade at least once, summarizing early grade repetition at the entry to secondary schooling. TOTSCYRS: Total number of calendar years spent in school since the time of application, aggregating enrollment histories into a duration-style schooling exposure measure. HASCHILD: Indicator that the applicant has at least one child at the time of survey, measuring early fertility outcomes. MARRIED: Indicator that the applicant is married or cohabiting with a partner at the time of survey, capturing early union formation. WORKING: Binary indicator that the applicant is engaged in paid work at the time of survey, summarizing labor-force participation. REPT: Indicator that the applicant has repeated at least one grade after the lottery, capturing any post-application grade repetition. NREPT: Count of grades repeated since the lottery, providing a more granular measure of cumulative repetition. FINISH6: Indicator that the applicant has successfully completed grade 6, the first year of Colombian secondary school. FINISH7: Indicator that the applicant has successfully completed grade 7, reflecting progression through early secondary schooling. FINISH8: Indicator that the applicant has successfully completed grade 8, used to summarize lower-secondary completion. SEX_MISS: Indicator that sex information is missing in the primary coding, flagging records relying on imputation or with unresolved sex classification. USNGSCH: Indicator that the applicant is using any scholarship (PACES voucher or other scholarship) in the survey year, capturing current scholarship utilization. HOURSUM: Total number of hours worked per week by the applicant at the time of survey, computed from reported work schedules and used to quantify labor supply. TAB3SMPL: Indicator that an observation is included in the analysis sample corresponding to a specific table (for example, Table 3) in the original study, marking the main balanced analytic subsample. WORKING3: Alternative working-status indicator defined for the Table 3 sample or using a particular coding of work (e.g., excluding very low-intensity work), complementing WORKING.

   file 40d8713a6c7abe4501d9e215e3af62cada0199b2782dd0d6fbabbee355d8535a · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_21e769f5naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "angrist_vouchers",
       "x": [
         "VOUCH0"
       ],
       "y": "HASCHILD"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_edfbabd7decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "angrist_vouchers",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "VOUCH0"
     ],
     "y": "HASCHILD"
   }

   Figuras call_edfbabd7

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.VOUCH0 Coefficient on VOUCH0 in the regression of HASCHILD	-0,00939942	-0.0093994203798582	0,007186560.00718655537827671	-0,0234937 – 0,00469482

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 1.9301930
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,0009071040.0009071039991985774
   • df_resid = 1.9281928
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.040976257204677666,
         "ci_low": 0.018758256069658617,
         "coef": 0.029867256637168143,
         "p": 1.4943352701617803e-7,
         "se": 0.005664403373602013,
         "t": 5.272798327950902,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.004694817355359265,
         "ci_low": -0.023493658115075665,
         "coef": -0.0093994203798582,
         "p": 0.1910572692752897,
         "se": 0.00718655537827671,
         "t": -1.3079173380157159,
         "term": "VOUCH0"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 23400 rows were dropped because one of 'HASCHILD', 'VOUCH0' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   angrist_vouchers e48260ecfdd86708973880a3dbe8646bab534cb52d58ab93016082782907a7e9

   sha256 do resultado

   8f942b3e4625d7578623059d608c2da7e69aaa412a1db145db29d0d4c0561abf

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_e7a3b00enaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.VOUCH0 = -0,009399.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_edfbabd7:coef.VOUCH0"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,009399

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.VOUCH0 = -0,009399.

   Figuras citadas: call_edfbabd7:coef.VOUCH0 · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_edfbabd7:coef.VOUCH0 = -0,00939942-0.0093994203798582 (se 0,007186560.00718655537827671)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória-0.00939942038 vs -0.006

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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