Tarefa causcibench_real.q150

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

How much does earmarked funding affect the performance of international organisations?

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Verificações

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Trajetória

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1. 0Início

   How much does earmarked funding affect the performance of international organisations?

   reinsberg_does_earmarked (agent)

   The dataset compiles performance evaluations of 32 international organizations (IOs) from 2009 to 2021, encompassing 64 assessments conducted by the Multilateral Organization Performance Assessment Network (MOPAN). Organizations vary significantly in their funding composition, with some receiving predominantly core contributions that provide operational flexibility, while others rely heavily on earmarked resources that restrict fund usage to specific purposes, sectors, or geographic areas. Due to their specific nature, earmarked funding does not offer flexibility. Thus, there is a possibility that earmarked funding may limit organizational performance. The dataset tracks both short-term and long-term earmarked funding patterns alongside core funding levels. International organizations' performance is given by two metrics: 1) Process performance, the extent to which organizations have rules to plan and manage operations strategically, and 2) outcome performance, which measures the organization's success in achieving desired results. Variables: organization: international organization name acronym: organization abbreviation year: assessment year mopan: The version of MOPAN methodology used in the assessment (one of 3.0, 3.1, or 3.0*, CA = older version) newmopan: Binary variable that is 1 if the new MOPAN assessment methodology was used y1: process performance factor score y2: outcome performance factor score y1n: process performance factor score after removing 2 micro indicators y2n: outcome performance factor score after removing 2 micro indicators EMST: earmarked funding share in the year before MOPAN assessment (t-1 year) EMLT: earmarked funding share in the years t-2 and t-3 before MOPAN assessment, i.e., 2 and 3 years before un: indicator for UN system organizations (1 = UN organization, 0 = non-UN organization) coreSTd: non-core funding amount coreST: core funding amount emST: earmarked funding amount emST_MBI: earmarked funding amount computed by MOPAN emshareLTd: Share of earmarked funding in the IO budget based on data from UN DESA Data emshareLTb: Share of earmarked funding in the IO budget based on data from UN Data Cube emshareLT: Share of earmarked funding share for long-term projects nproj_lt: number of earmarked projects ndon_lt: number of donors providing earmarked funding states_num: number of member states states_unga_sd: standard deviation of the preferences of the member states with respect to ideal point estimates tenure: executive head tenure length selectorate: Variable indicating how the executive is selected (1 = appointed by the chief of parent organization, 2 = selected by the board, 3 = chosen by the assembly of member states) founding: organization founding year hq: headquarters location field_presence: number of staff in the field staff_count: total staff size normio: indicator for norm-making IOs: FAO, ILO, UNESCO, UNHCR, UNIDO, WHO, GEF lnsectors: logarithm of the number of sectors in which the organization receives donor funding meanwSIM: weighted mean cosine similarity of sector-specific contribution profile, which is proportional to the total budget of the IOs

   file c6e6f76a45840b38e6b9ab7ca8618731926c8df7c3c57d54ce2a34d8d362f330 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_963bc90fnaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "reinsberg_does_earmarked",
       "x": [
         "EMST"
       ],
       "y": "y1"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_a34d180cdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "reinsberg_does_earmarked",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "EMST"
     ],
     "y": "y1"
   }

   Figuras call_a34d180c

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.EMST Coefficient on EMST in the regression of y1	-1,32249	-1.3224875262072064	0,4315290.4315288732094373	-2,19218 – -0,452798

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 4646
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,170680.17067979917286935
   • df_resid = 4444
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 1.1382973679574897,
         "ci_low": 0.12078452513476345,
         "coef": 0.6295409465461266,
         "p": 0.01646826990044473,
         "se": 0.25243852677930406,
         "t": 2.4938386171794873,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.4527982277046524,
         "ci_low": -2.1921768247097604,
         "coef": -1.3224875262072064,
         "p": 0.0037148138380276273,
         "se": 0.4315288732094373,
         "t": -3.0646559438106316,
         "term": "EMST"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 18 rows were dropped because one of 'y1', 'EMST' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   reinsberg_does_earmarked 5e2cf774bc4e473b2623db2b5c2e832456bd6da928a073ef89f69de82001d0be

   sha256 do resultado

   ff05ed7de03c2d3388395eb0267dbe801780a59362d96912457ea62c79f8200a

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_47e7eae9naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.EMST = -1,322.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_a34d180c:coef.EMST"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -1,322

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.EMST = -1,322.

   Figuras citadas: call_a34d180c:coef.EMST · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_a34d180c:coef.EMST = -1,32249-1.3224875262072064 (se 0,4315290.4315288732094373)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória-1.322487526 vs -1.501

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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