Tarefa paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c1.tool
paper_reprotoolT1publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T183517Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-0cda63Veredito
Pergunta feita ao analista
Tarefa de ferramenta: nenhuma pergunta; a especificação de referência é chamada direto.
Valores esperados e de onde vêm
lmb_2004.tab1_c1.software
- Fonte
- statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of lmb_2004 tab1_c1 (infer.ols, figure 'coef.lagdemocrat') on an independent code path
- Tipo
- software
- Localização
- lmb_2004: Table I (results based on ADA scores, close elections sample), column (1) 'Total effect, gamma, ADA_t+1', row 'Estimated gap'
- Valor
- 21,2839
21.283872256260665(se 1,951231.9512339082202543) - Conferido por
- execução de software · sm.OLS(score, add_constant(['lagdemocrat'])).fit(cov_type='HC1') on lmb (the file pinned at sha256 58cf9d8ef80b2871a96c00844fae975051a5aac443dff3d317fe92ffd6a516b7, rows where lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52); n_obs = 915. The tool infer.ols (magi_infer, numpy) does not call statsmodels. Written by scripts/paper_repro_reference.py.
- Implementação
- independente da ferramenta
- Endereço
https://pypi.org/project/statsmodels/0.15.0/
- #0 figura próxima: 21,2839
21.283872256260665· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.0000019512339082202542 - #1 figura próxima: 1,95123
1.9512339082202543· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.0000019512339082202542
lmb_2004.tab1_c1.paper
- Fonte
- Lee, D. S., Moretti, E. and Butler, M. J. (2004). Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U.S. House. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3): 807-859.
- Tipo
- paper
- Localização
- Table I (results based on ADA scores, close elections sample), column (1) total effect gamma, ADA_t+1, row 'Estimated gap'
- Página
- 832
- Trecho
Estimated gap 21.2 (1.9)
- Valor como publicado
21.2- Erro-padrão como publicado
1.9- Valor
- 21,2
21.2(se 1,91.9) ADA score points (0 to 100) - Conferido por
- fonte primária · Read on 2026-10-15 from the published QJE version (53 pages, typeset pages 807-859) on Enrico Moretti's Berkeley page, from the text layer and the rendered image of page 832 (Table I). Table notes: 'Standard errors are in parentheses'; the sample keeps elections with the Democrat vote share at time t strictly between 48 and 52 percent; sample size 915. Data check made before any estimate: in the causaldata extract, rows with 0.48 < lagdemvoteshare < 0.52 number 915, as printed, with no missing outcome or treatment, no share exactly at 0.48, 0.50 or 0.52, lagdemocrat equal to (lagdemvoteshare > 0.5) on every row of the window, and id unique within the window.
- sha256 da cópia lida
00983018486cc68079d100de58d46e279f50295ddda3c12c94e075e88340e24d(identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)- Desvio conhecido
- versão dos dadosRecorded before this track's software-reference run and before any dry run, from the paper and the research probe: Table I does not state how its standard errors were computed, and the research note (research-papers.md section 3.13, 2026-10-14) already reported the cluster-by-id (here equal to HC1) error of this regression on this extract as 1.9512, which rounds to 2.0 against the printed 1.9. The printed cell is recorded and non-required on T1; the reference keeps HC1. Found in a dry run (20261015T073042Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-7a58d8, T1): the coefficient on this extract is 21.2839 (tool and reference agree), which misses the printed 21.2 by more than half a unit of its last decimal; the Mixtape prints 21.28 from the same extract, so the causaldata extract is not the authors' exact file (a data_version difference on top of the SE convention). Tolerance and reference call unchanged. At the B-join review the kind was relabelled data_version (it was se_convention, which did not describe the value miss); the printed value stays non-required on T1 because of this post-run finding, which the page shows as found in a run.
- Endereço
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/final.pdf- Licença
- Copyright the President and Fellows of Harvard College and MIT (QJE); cited, not reproduced.
- #2 figura próxima: 21,2
21.2· published_cell d=1 · absoluta 0.0500000212 - #3 figura próxima: 1,9
1.9· published_cell d=1 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0500000019
Verificações
| # | Verificação | Obrigatória | Resultado | Esperado | Observado | Tolerância | Fonte | Chamada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | figura próxima 21.28387226 vs 21.283872256260665 | obrigatória | passou | 21,283921.283872256260665 | 21,283921.283872256260693 | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.0000019512339082202542 | lmb_2004.tab1_c1.software | — |
| 1 | figura próxima 1.951233908 vs 1.9512339082202543 | obrigatória | passou | 1,951231.9512339082202543 | 1,951231.9512339082202579 | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.0000019512339082202542 | lmb_2004.tab1_c1.software | — |
| 2 | figura próxima 21.28387226 vs 21.2 | registrada | falhou | 21,221.2 | 21,283921.283872256260693 | published_cell d=1 · absoluta 0.0500000212 | lmb_2004.tab1_c1.paper | — |
| 3 | figura próxima 1.951233908 vs 1.9 | registrada | falhou | 1,91.9 | 1,951231.9512339082202579 | published_cell d=1 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0500000019 | lmb_2004.tab1_c1.paper | — |
Caminho de referência e caminho do agente
A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.
a própria especificação da tarefa
| Argumento | Referência | Agente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cluster | — | — | não fixado pela referência |
| controls | [] | [] | igual |
| dataset | "lmb" | "lmb" | igual |
| fe | [] | [] | igual |
| intercept | — | true | não fixado pela referência |
| level | — | 0,950.95 | não fixado pela referência |
| se | "HC1" | "HC1" | igual |
| subset | "lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52" | "lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52" | igual |
| weights | — | — | não fixado pela referência |
| x | ["lagdemocrat"] | ["lagdemocrat"] | igual |
| y | "score" | "score" | igual |
Trajetória
Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.
- 0Início
Tarefa de ferramenta: nenhuma pergunta; a especificação de referência é chamada direto.
lmb(agent)U.S. House elections and roll-call voting, the extract of the data of Lee, Moretti and Butler (2004), 'Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U.S. House', distributed with the causaldata R package: one row per district and congressional session (13,588 rows). Each row pairs a district's election with the one before it for the same seat. Columns: rownames, the row number; state, ICPSR state code; district, district code; id, an election identifier; score, the adjusted ADA voting score of the district's representative in the session that follows the row's election (0 to 100, higher means a more liberal roll-call record); year, year of the election; demvoteshare, the Democratic candidate's share of the two-party vote in the row's election; democrat, 1 if the Democratic candidate won the row's election; lagdemvoteshare, the Democratic share of the two-party vote in the previous election for the same seat; lagdemocrat, 1 if the Democratic candidate won that previous election. In the paper's notation the previous election is time t and the row's election, and the session after it, are time t+1.
file58cf9d8ef80b2871a96c00844fae975051a5aac443dff3d317fe92ffd6a516b7· frame — - 1Ferramenta
infer.olsv0.1.0call_d4f2e34edecidido pelo códigoreexecutávelArgumentos
{ "cluster": null, "controls": [], "dataset": "lmb", "fe": [], "intercept": true, "level": 0.95, "se": "HC1", "subset": "lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52", "weights": null, "x": [ "lagdemocrat" ], "y": "score" }Figuras call_d4f2e34e Chave Valor Valor bruto Erro-padrão IC coef.lagdemocrat Coefficient on lagdemocrat in the regression of score21,2839 21.2838722562606931,95123 1.951233908220257917,4544 – 25,1133 Diagnósticosn_obs= 915915k= 22r2= 0,1152160.11521622412798271df_resid= 913913se_type="HC1"n_clusters= —
Tabelas (1)
{ "coefficients": [ { "ci_high": 33.81378692068773, "ci_low": 28.577729563124812, "coef": 31.195758241906272, "p": 3.787615957246003e-95, "se": 1.3339826939068975, "t": 23.38542949949508, "term": "Intercept" }, { "ci_high": 25.113296996225124, "ci_low": 17.454447516296263, "coef": 21.283872256260693, "p": 3.9868192567845213e-26, "se": 1.9512339082202579, "t": 10.907904053222378, "term": "lagdemocrat" } ] }- Digests dos dados
lmb6f2fbc93d91c4156cab244ba7581cc8eae45210626f97f85ac8b2d366e4cbc20- sha256 do resultado
af1919ca61c68116322089c0e9fdb55fa19769c318c42d34fdc9e2bb0fcac42f
- 2Pontuação#0figura próximapassouobrigatória
21.28387226 vs 21.283872256260665 - 3Pontuação#1figura próximapassouobrigatória
1.951233908 vs 1.9512339082202543 - 4Pontuação#2figura próximafalhouregistrada
21.28387226 vs 21.2 - 5Pontuação#3figura próximafalhouregistrada
1.951233908 vs 1.9
Épocas × verificações
| # | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Época 1 | passou | passou | falhou | falhou |
Tentativas
Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.
- época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)
Downloads desta tarefa
157eaedba709847be710df98b6abed6cb8e5798eab463a0c92df7f17904c81a2O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.
| Arquivo | Tamanho | sha256 |
|---|---|---|
| sources/lmb_2004.tab1_c1.paper.json | 2,9 KB | fd9d1bacc84dc6b001fe9a10e767fa4e529c0d6adb2dbeafc9c6f6cecfa5ce2a |
| sources/lmb_2004.tab1_c1.software.json | 1,2 KB | 52edcc8b3dcf2c0c59189fcf597666f6114710d7fa99cd481d4ea9fcbe5170e0 |
| specs/paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c1.tool.json | 6,2 KB | 786fa37ecaeff178d48d010ca81cf735972c13d19c3efa6dbc18a10e3c45417e |
| traces/paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c1.tool.e1.a1.jsonl | 3,3 KB | 7b19020cab77ac18ede1f39a1b900401b2befa244fba6fa935da5e9a50ad3907 |
| trajectories/paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c1.tool.e1.a1.jsonl | 7,5 KB | 27fbda380604d8021ca08c3bf01cba8f1bcc28c654e7699ef173b68555ba94de |