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Tarefa paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c1.tool

paper_reprotoolT1publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T183517Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-0cda63

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Pergunta feita ao analista

Tarefa de ferramenta: nenhuma pergunta; a especificação de referência é chamada direto.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

lmb_2004.tab1_c1.software

Fonte
statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of lmb_2004 tab1_c1 (infer.ols, figure 'coef.lagdemocrat') on an independent code path
Tipo
software
Localização
lmb_2004: Table I (results based on ADA scores, close elections sample), column (1) 'Total effect, gamma, ADA_t+1', row 'Estimated gap'
Valor
21,283921.283872256260665 (se 1,951231.9512339082202543)
Conferido por
execução de software · sm.OLS(score, add_constant(['lagdemocrat'])).fit(cov_type='HC1') on lmb (the file pinned at sha256 58cf9d8ef80b2871a96c00844fae975051a5aac443dff3d317fe92ffd6a516b7, rows where lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52); n_obs = 915. The tool infer.ols (magi_infer, numpy) does not call statsmodels. Written by scripts/paper_repro_reference.py.
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
Endereço
https://pypi.org/project/statsmodels/0.15.0/
  • #0 figura próxima: 21,283921.283872256260665 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.0000019512339082202542
  • #1 figura próxima: 1,951231.9512339082202543 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.0000019512339082202542

lmb_2004.tab1_c1.paper

Fonte
Lee, D. S., Moretti, E. and Butler, M. J. (2004). Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U.S. House. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3): 807-859.
Tipo
paper
Localização
Table I (results based on ADA scores, close elections sample), column (1) total effect gamma, ADA_t+1, row 'Estimated gap'
Página
832
Trecho
Estimated gap 21.2 (1.9)
Valor como publicado
21.2
Erro-padrão como publicado
1.9
Valor
21,221.2 (se 1,91.9) ADA score points (0 to 100)
Conferido por
fonte primária · Read on 2026-10-15 from the published QJE version (53 pages, typeset pages 807-859) on Enrico Moretti's Berkeley page, from the text layer and the rendered image of page 832 (Table I). Table notes: 'Standard errors are in parentheses'; the sample keeps elections with the Democrat vote share at time t strictly between 48 and 52 percent; sample size 915. Data check made before any estimate: in the causaldata extract, rows with 0.48 < lagdemvoteshare < 0.52 number 915, as printed, with no missing outcome or treatment, no share exactly at 0.48, 0.50 or 0.52, lagdemocrat equal to (lagdemvoteshare > 0.5) on every row of the window, and id unique within the window.
sha256 da cópia lida
00983018486cc68079d100de58d46e279f50295ddda3c12c94e075e88340e24d (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Desvio conhecido
versão dos dados
Recorded before this track's software-reference run and before any dry run, from the paper and the research probe: Table I does not state how its standard errors were computed, and the research note (research-papers.md section 3.13, 2026-10-14) already reported the cluster-by-id (here equal to HC1) error of this regression on this extract as 1.9512, which rounds to 2.0 against the printed 1.9. The printed cell is recorded and non-required on T1; the reference keeps HC1. Found in a dry run (20261015T073042Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-7a58d8, T1): the coefficient on this extract is 21.2839 (tool and reference agree), which misses the printed 21.2 by more than half a unit of its last decimal; the Mixtape prints 21.28 from the same extract, so the causaldata extract is not the authors' exact file (a data_version difference on top of the SE convention). Tolerance and reference call unchanged. At the B-join review the kind was relabelled data_version (it was se_convention, which did not describe the value miss); the printed value stays non-required on T1 because of this post-run finding, which the page shows as found in a run.
Endereço
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/final.pdf
Licença
Copyright the President and Fellows of Harvard College and MIT (QJE); cited, not reproduced.
  • #2 figura próxima: 21,221.2 · published_cell d=1 · absoluta 0.0500000212
  • #3 figura próxima: 1,91.9 · published_cell d=1 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0500000019

Verificações

Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
#VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
0figura próxima
21.28387226 vs 21.283872256260665
obrigatóriapassou21,283921.28387225626066521,283921.283872256260693relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.0000019512339082202542lmb_2004.tab1_c1.software—
1figura próxima
1.951233908 vs 1.9512339082202543
obrigatóriapassou1,951231.95123390822025431,951231.9512339082202579relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.0000019512339082202542lmb_2004.tab1_c1.software—
2figura próxima
21.28387226 vs 21.2
registradafalhou21,221.221,283921.283872256260693published_cell d=1 · absoluta 0.0500000212lmb_2004.tab1_c1.paper—
3figura próxima
1.951233908 vs 1.9
registradafalhou1,91.91,951231.9512339082202579published_cell d=1 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0500000019lmb_2004.tab1_c1.paper—

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

a própria especificação da tarefa

Referência: infer.olsChamada do agente: infer.ols (call_d4f2e34e)igual
Argumentos da referência e do agente
ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
cluster——não fixado pela referência
controls[][]igual
dataset"lmb""lmb"igual
fe[][]igual
intercept—truenão fixado pela referência
level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
se"HC1""HC1"igual
subset"lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52""lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52"igual
weights——não fixado pela referência
x["lagdemocrat"]["lagdemocrat"]igual
y"score""score"igual

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

  1. 0Início

    Tarefa de ferramenta: nenhuma pergunta; a especificação de referência é chamada direto.

    lmb (agent)

    U.S. House elections and roll-call voting, the extract of the data of Lee, Moretti and Butler (2004), 'Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U.S. House', distributed with the causaldata R package: one row per district and congressional session (13,588 rows). Each row pairs a district's election with the one before it for the same seat. Columns: rownames, the row number; state, ICPSR state code; district, district code; id, an election identifier; score, the adjusted ADA voting score of the district's representative in the session that follows the row's election (0 to 100, higher means a more liberal roll-call record); year, year of the election; demvoteshare, the Democratic candidate's share of the two-party vote in the row's election; democrat, 1 if the Democratic candidate won the row's election; lagdemvoteshare, the Democratic share of the two-party vote in the previous election for the same seat; lagdemocrat, 1 if the Democratic candidate won that previous election. In the paper's notation the previous election is time t and the row's election, and the session after it, are time t+1.

    file 58cf9d8ef80b2871a96c00844fae975051a5aac443dff3d317fe92ffd6a516b7 · frame —
  2. 1Ferramenta
    infer.olsv0.1.0call_d4f2e34edecidido pelo códigoreexecutável
    Argumentos
    {
      "cluster": null,
      "controls": [],
      "dataset": "lmb",
      "fe": [],
      "intercept": true,
      "level": 0.95,
      "se": "HC1",
      "subset": "lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52",
      "weights": null,
      "x": [
        "lagdemocrat"
      ],
      "y": "score"
    }
    Figuras call_d4f2e34e
    ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
    coef.lagdemocrat
    Coefficient on lagdemocrat in the regression of score
    21,2839 21.2838722562606931,951231.951233908220257917,4544 – 25,1133
    Diagnósticos
    • n_obs = 915915
    • k = 22
    • r2 = 0,1152160.11521622412798271
    • df_resid = 913913
    • se_type = "HC1"
    • n_clusters = —
    Tabelas (1)
    {
      "coefficients": [
        {
          "ci_high": 33.81378692068773,
          "ci_low": 28.577729563124812,
          "coef": 31.195758241906272,
          "p": 3.787615957246003e-95,
          "se": 1.3339826939068975,
          "t": 23.38542949949508,
          "term": "Intercept"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 25.113296996225124,
          "ci_low": 17.454447516296263,
          "coef": 21.283872256260693,
          "p": 3.9868192567845213e-26,
          "se": 1.9512339082202579,
          "t": 10.907904053222378,
          "term": "lagdemocrat"
        }
      ]
    }
    Digests dos dados
    lmb 6f2fbc93d91c4156cab244ba7581cc8eae45210626f97f85ac8b2d366e4cbc20
    sha256 do resultado
    af1919ca61c68116322089c0e9fdb55fa19769c318c42d34fdc9e2bb0fcac42f
  3. 2Pontuação
    #0figura próximapassouobrigatória21.28387226 vs 21.283872256260665
  4. 3Pontuação
    #1figura próximapassouobrigatória1.951233908 vs 1.9512339082202543
  5. 4Pontuação
    #2figura próximafalhouregistrada21.28387226 vs 21.2
  6. 5Pontuação
    #3figura próximafalhouregistrada1.951233908 vs 1.9

Épocas × verificações

Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
#0123
Época 1passoupassoufalhoufalhou

Tentativas

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sources/lmb_2004.tab1_c1.paper.json2,9 KBfd9d1bacc84dc6b001fe9a10e767fa4e529c0d6adb2dbeafc9c6f6cecfa5ce2a
sources/lmb_2004.tab1_c1.software.json1,2 KB52edcc8b3dcf2c0c59189fcf597666f6114710d7fa99cd481d4ea9fcbe5170e0
specs/paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c1.tool.json6,2 KB786fa37ecaeff178d48d010ca81cf735972c13d19c3efa6dbc18a10e3c45417e
traces/paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c1.tool.e1.a1.jsonl3,3 KB7b19020cab77ac18ede1f39a1b900401b2befa244fba6fa935da5e9a50ad3907
trajectories/paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c1.tool.e1.a1.jsonl7,5 KB27fbda380604d8021ca08c3bf01cba8f1bcc28c654e7699ef173b68555ba94de