Pular para o conteúdo

Tarefa paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.design

paper_reproagentT3designépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T183517Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-0cda63

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): ols (regression)

Pergunta feita ao analista

In the Solow growth model, how does income per working-age person in 1985 vary across the non-oil-producing countries with the share of output that is invested, holding the growth of the working-age population (plus technological progress and depreciation, assumed to total 0.05) fixed? Report the elasticity of income with respect to the investment share.

Resposta

In the cross-country regression of the textbook Solow growth model (Mankiw, Romer, and Weil, 1992) for the 98 non-oil-producing countries, the estimated elasticity of 1985 real GDP per working-age person with respect to the investment share is 1.42401 (heteroskedasticity-robust standard error of 0.131962; 95% CI [1.16204, 1.68599]; classical standard error of 0.143106, 95% CI [1.13991, 1.70812]). This estimate comes from an ordinary least squares regression of the log of 1985 GDP per working-age person on the log of the investment share and the log of the effective population growth rate (popgrowth + 0.05), with an intercept of 5.42988 and an R² of 0.600864801103209. Holding population growth, depreciation, and technological growth constant, higher investment rates are strongly positively associated with income per working-age person. Ressalvas: Cross-country OLS assumes that country-specific technology levels and unobserved factors are uncorrelated with saving and population growth rates; omitted factors such as institutions, human capital, or geographic traits could bias the estimate. Under the textbook Solow model, an elasticity of approximately 1.42 implies an implied physical capital share of output around 0.6, which is higher than the standard national accounts capital share (about one third); MRW address this by augmenting the model with human capital.

Ressalvas
  • Cross-country OLS assumes that country-specific technology levels and unobserved factors are uncorrelated with saving and population growth rates; omitted factors such as institutions, human capital, or geographic traits could bias the estimate.
  • Under the textbook Solow model, an elasticity of approximately 1.42 implies an implied physical capital share of output around 0.6, which is higher than the standard national accounts capital share (about one third); MRW address this by augmenting the model with human capital.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.software

Fonte
statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of mrw_1992 tab1_nonoil_ls (infer.ols, figure 'coef.ls') on an independent code path
Tipo
software
Localização
mrw_1992: Table I (Estimation of the textbook Solow model), unrestricted regression, column 'Non-oil', row 'ln(I/GDP)'
Valor
1,424011.4240142833694192 (se 0,1431060.14310581649732004)
Conferido por
execução de software · sm.OLS(ly, add_constant(['ls', 'lngd'])).fit(cov_type='nonrobust') on growthdj (the file pinned at sha256 3d06303f1da9959175e990eb068bf242fac0e9bc1f9daad1f5fffe96d100e796, after its 7 declared transforms, rows where oil == 'no'); n_obs = 98. The tool infer.ols (magi_infer, numpy) does not call statsmodels. Written by scripts/paper_repro_reference.py.
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
Endereço
https://pypi.org/project/statsmodels/0.15.0/
  • #7 figura da resposta próxima: 1,424011.4240142833694192 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.4310581649732005e-7
  • #8 figura da resposta próxima: 0,1431060.14310581649732004 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.4310581649732005e-7

mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.paper

Fonte
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. and Weil, D. N. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2): 407-437.
Tipo
paper
Localização
Table I (Estimation of the textbook Solow model), unrestricted regression, column 'Non-oil' (N = 98), row 'ln(I/GDP)'
Página
414
Trecho
ln(I/GDP) Non-oil 1.42 (0.14)
Valor como publicado
1.42
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.14
Valor
1,421.42 (se 0,140.14) elasticity of GDP per working-age person
Conferido por
fonte primária · Read on 2026-10-15 from the QJE copy on David Romer's Berkeley page (31-page PDF) with pdftotext -layout and from the rendered page image; Table I is on PDF page 8 (journal page 414). The note says 'Standard errors are in parentheses' and '(g + δ) is assumed to be 0.05'. Observations as printed: 98; the replication file has 98 complete rows in this sample.
sha256 da cópia lida
1bd560f2d4c6bc80f72557fff2f03e785b04aacd7f032c41ef210faaf830c80f (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Desvio conhecido
versão dos dados
Recorded before this track's software-reference run and before any dry run on this target; from the data's provenance. The file is Durlauf and Johnson's transcription of the MRW data appendix (R package AER, GrowthDJ), whose population growth and investment shares are printed rounded to one decimal of a percent, while MRW estimated on the unrounded Summers-Heston data; the research probe of 2026-10-14 (research-papers.md section 3.5) already found the constant off by about 0.05 and some slopes off by 0.01 to 0.02 on this file. Every MRW cell is therefore a data_version deviation: the printed cell is recorded and counted in replication fidelity, and non-required on T1.
Endereço
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/MRW_QJE1992.pdf
Licença
Copyright the President and Fellows of Harvard College (QJE); cited, not reproduced.
  • #9 figura da resposta próxima: 1,421.42 · published_cell d=2 · absoluta 0.0050000014200000005
  • #10 figura da resposta próxima: 0,140.14 · published_cell d=2 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0050000010000000004

Verificações

Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
#VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
0resposta com lastro
every number backed
obrigatóriapassou—[]———
1figura da resposta escolhida
answer figure call_c293748b:coef.ls (infer.ols)
obrigatóriapassou—"call_c293748b:coef.ls"——call_c293748b
2ferramenta chamada
answer call is infer.ols
obrigatóriapassou—"infer.ols"——call_c293748b
3argumento igual
infer.ols.y = 'ly'
obrigatóriapassou"ly""ly"——call_c293748b
4argumento igual
infer.ols.x[0] = 'ls'
obrigatóriapassou"ls""ls"——call_c293748b
5argumento igual
infer.ols.y = 'ly'
registradapassou"ly""ly"——call_c293748b
6diagnóstico
98 vs 98
registradapassou98989898default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6)—call_c293748b
7figura da resposta próxima
1.424014283 vs 1.4240142833694192
registradapassou1,424011.42401428336941921,424011.424014283369419relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.4310581649732005e-7mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.softwarecall_c293748b
8figura da resposta próxima
0.1319622618 vs 0.14310581649732004
registradafalhou0,1431060.143105816497320040,1319620.13196226184630017relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.4310581649732005e-7mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.softwarecall_c293748b
9figura da resposta próxima
1.424014283 vs 1.42
registradapassou1,421.421,424011.424014283369419published_cell d=2 · absoluta 0.0050000014200000005mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.papercall_c293748b
10figura da resposta próxima
0.1319622618 vs 0.14
registradafalhou0,140.140,1319620.13196226184630017published_cell d=2 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0050000010000000004mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.papercall_c293748b

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

a tarefa T1 do mesmo alvo (paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.tool)

Referência: infer.olsChamada do agente: infer.ols (call_c293748b)igual
Argumentos da referência e do agente
ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
cluster——não fixado pela referência
controls[]["lngd"]diferente
dataset"growthdj""growthdj"igual
fe[][]igual
intercept—truenão fixado pela referência
level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
se"classical""HC1"diferente
subset"oil == 'no'""oil == 'no'"igual
weights——não fixado pela referência
x["ls","lngd"]["ls"]diferente
y"ly""ly"igual

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

  1. 0Início

    In the Solow growth model, how does income per working-age person in 1985 vary across the non-oil-producing countries with the share of output that is invested, holding the growth of the working-age population (plus technological progress and depreciation, assumed to total 0.05) fixed? Report the elasticity of income with respect to the investment share.

    growthdj (agent)

    The data of Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992), 'A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth', as transcribed by Durlauf and Johnson (R package AER, GrowthDJ): one row per country (121 rows). Columns: rownames, a row number; oil, 'yes' for the oil producers MRW exclude from the non-oil sample, else 'no'; inter, 'yes' for the 'intermediate' sample (no Summers-Heston grade of D, 1960 population of at least one million); oecd, 'yes' for the OECD sample; gdp60 and gdp85, real GDP per working-age person in 1960 and 1985 (dollars); gdpgrowth, average annual growth of GDP per working-age person 1960-1985 (percent); popgrowth, average annual growth of the working-age population 1960-1985 (percent); invest, average share of real investment in real GDP 1960-1985 (percent); school, percent of the working-age population in secondary school; literacy60, adult literacy rate in 1960 (percent). Columns built from the paper's definitions (g + δ = 0.05): ly, log of gdp85; s_share, invest divided by 100; ls, log of s_share (ln(I/GDP)); n_rate, popgrowth divided by 100; g_plus_delta, the constant 0.05; ngd, n_rate + g_plus_delta; lngd, log of ngd (ln(n + g + δ)). Some countries miss gdp85 or popgrowth.

    file 3d06303f1da9959175e990eb068bf242fac0e9bc1f9daad1f5fffe96d100e796 · frame —
    1. derive {"args":{"column":"gdp85"},"name":"ly","op":"log"}
    2. derive {"args":{"column":"invest","factor":0.01},"name":"s_share","op":"scale"}
    3. derive {"args":{"column":"s_share"},"name":"ls","op":"log"}
    4. derive {"args":{"column":"popgrowth","factor":0.01},"name":"n_rate","op":"scale"}
    5. derive {"args":{"value":0.05},"name":"g_plus_delta","op":"constant"}
    6. derive {"args":{"columns":["n_rate","g_plus_delta"]},"name":"ngd","op":"sum"}
    7. derive {"args":{"column":"ngd"},"name":"lngd","op":"log"}
  2. 1Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"gdp85"},"name":"ly","op":"log"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 6f822eca9c87 → 256189baba87
  3. 2Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"invest","factor":0.01},"name":"s_share","op":"scale"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 256189baba87 → ddc60cb0ca4e
  4. 3Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"s_share"},"name":"ls","op":"log"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: ddc60cb0ca4e → 832bd9c4b876
  5. 4Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"popgrowth","factor":0.01},"name":"n_rate","op":"scale"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 832bd9c4b876 → ff997d0e044f
  6. 5Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"value":0.05},"name":"g_plus_delta","op":"constant"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: ff997d0e044f → b9e3acd5adf8
  7. 6Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"columns":["n_rate","g_plus_delta"]},"name":"ngd","op":"sum"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: b9e3acd5adf8 → 837704298f36
  8. 7Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"ngd"},"name":"lngd","op":"log"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 837704298f36 → e3f509733efe
  9. 8Turno do modelo
    call_c2cc16f5gemini-3.8-flashFim: STOP8.538 ms14641 de entrada · 106 de saída · 406 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
    Texto visível

    I will run an ordinary least squares regression of the log of 1985 GDP per working-age person on the log of the investment share, controlling for the log of population growth plus 0.05, restricted to non-oil countries.

    Resumo do raciocínio, como declarado pelo modelo

    **My Thought Process on the Solow Growth Model Analysis** Alright, so the core of the request is to understand how income per working-age person in 1985, within the context of the Solow growth model, is influenced by the investment share, specifically for non-oil-producing countries. They want this analyzed while holding the combined growth rate of the working-age population, technological progress, and depreciation (which are collectively given as 0.05) constant. Crucially, they're asking for the *elasticity* of income with respect to the investment share. This means I need to determine how a percentage change in the investment share translates into a percentage change in income per capita. My first step, naturally, is to examine the provided dataset, `growthdj`. I need to identify the relevant variables. I see columns like `oil`, which is key for filtering for "non-oil-producing countries" (where `oil == 'no'`). Then there's `gdp85`, which represents real GDP per working-age person in 1985 – that's my dependent variable of interest. For the investment share, I see `s_share`, and the request implies I'll be working with its logarithm, which is conveniently provided as `ls`. Now, I recall the standard specification of the Solow model as presented in Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992), particularly Table I. The model is typically estimated as: $\ln(Y/L) = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \ln(I/GDP) + \beta_2 \ln(n + g + \delta) + \epsilon$ Looking at my dataset's columns, this translates directly to: * Dependent variable: `ly` (which is the logarithm of `gdp85`) * Independent variable 1: `ls` (the logarithm of the investment share, `s_share`) * Independent variable 2: `lngd` (the logarithm of `n + g + delta`). The request specifies holding `n + g + delta` constant at 0.05. This corresponds to the `lngd` term in the regression. The dataset helpfully provides `lngd` which is likely the log of that exact sum. The sample constraint is also clear: "non-oil-producing countries," which means I need to filter the data where the `oil` column is 'no'. To get the elasticity of income with respect to the investment share, I need to run an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The coefficient $\beta_1$ on `ls` in the estimated equation will directly give me this elasticity because the dependent variable is $\ln(Y/L)$ and one of the independent variables is $\ln(I/GDP)$. A change in $\ln(I/GDP)$ directly reflects a percentage change in $I/GDP$, and a change in $\ln(Y/L)$ directly reflects a percentage change in $Y/L$. Therefore, $\beta_1 = \frac{\partial \ln(Y/L)}{\partial \ln(I/GDP)}$, which is precisely the definition of the elasticity. So, my plan is to: 1. Filter the `growthdj` dataset to include only rows where `oil == 'no'`. 2. Run an OLS regression using `ly` as the dependent variable, and `ls` and `lngd` as independent variables. 3. Extract the coefficient for `ls` from the regression output. This coefficient will be my reported elasticity. I'll use the `infer__ols` function to perform this regression. I need to be confident that `lngd` in the dataset accurately represents the log of (population growth + technological progress + depreciation) as stated in the problem. Given the context and the column name, this is a safe assumption.

    Chamadas pedidas
    • infer.ols
      {
        "controls": [
          "lngd"
        ],
        "dataset": "growthdj",
        "se": "HC1",
        "subset": "oil == 'no'",
        "x": [
          "ls"
        ],
        "y": "ly"
      }
  10. 9Ferramenta
    infer.olsv0.1.0call_c293748bdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

    Motivo: I will run an ordinary least squares regression of the log of 1985 GDP per working-age person on the log of the investment share, controlling for the log of population growth plus 0.05, restricted to non-oil countries.

    Argumentos
    {
      "cluster": null,
      "controls": [
        "lngd"
      ],
      "dataset": "growthdj",
      "fe": [],
      "intercept": true,
      "level": 0.95,
      "se": "HC1",
      "subset": "oil == 'no'",
      "weights": null,
      "x": [
        "ls"
      ],
      "y": "ly"
    }
    Figuras call_c293748b
    ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
    coef.ls
    Coefficient on ls in the regression of ly
    1,42401 1.4240142833694190,1319620.131962261846300171,16204 – 1,68599
    Diagnósticos
    • n_obs = 9898
    • k = 33
    • r2 = 0,6008650.6008648011032094
    • df_resid = 9595
    • se_type = "HC1"
    • n_clusters = —
    Tabelas (1)
    {
      "coefficients": [
        {
          "ci_high": 8.577647478110183,
          "ci_low": 2.2821187134531202,
          "coef": 5.429883095781651,
          "p": 0.0009107501109057622,
          "se": 1.585575011306027,
          "t": 3.424551381715517,
          "term": "Intercept"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 1.6859924961246415,
          "ci_low": 1.1620360706141963,
          "coef": 1.424014283369419,
          "p": 3.409312626758513e-18,
          "se": 0.13196226184630017,
          "t": 10.7910721099037,
          "term": "ls"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -0.9073336802845176,
          "ci_low": -3.072215288927856,
          "coef": -1.9897744846061867,
          "p": 0.0004296714962462017,
          "se": 0.5452412830469936,
          "t": -3.649346713966064,
          "term": "lngd"
        }
      ]
    }
    Digests dos dados
    growthdj e3f509733efe06358f9503c526bd45111b6a64feb75b292419aae56055b598f2
    sha256 do resultado
    ab409a934881c21507d0d8127b63ffc15c6485a3c8384678f1c7552cc6eaaeae
  11. 10Turno do modelo
    call_944bfd8cgemini-3.8-flashFim: STOP6.251 ms15468 de entrada · 82 de saída · 178 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
    Texto visível

    I will estimate the regression with classical standard errors to compare with the textbook Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) specification.

    Resumo do raciocínio, como declarado pelo modelo

    **My Thought Process Regarding the Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) Results** My initial step was to meticulously examine the empirical findings presented in Table I of Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992). I specifically focused on the row labeled "Non-oil," as this segment of their analysis pertains to countries that are not significantly influenced by oil revenues, a crucial distinction for understanding broader determinants of growth. The dependent variable of interest was the natural logarithm of output per worker, ln(Y/L), as measured in 1985. This choice of variable is, of course, standard for capturing differences in income levels. The sample size for this particular specification was N = 98, representing the non-oil economies. My attention was then drawn to the estimated constant term: 5.48. I noted the standard error associated with this constant, which was 1.59. However, a question immediately arose in my mind regarding the standard error estimation method employed. It's critical for me, as an expert, to be certain about the underlying statistical assumptions. Therefore, I decided to explicitly check the results using "classical" standard errors. I wanted to ascertain if the standard error of 1.59 was derived using robust methods or if it was the more traditional, and potentially less reliable, classical estimate. To gain further insight, I decided to retrieve and review the reported coefficients and standard errors for the explanatory variables in the original MRW (1992) paper. I recalled that for ln(I/GDP), the coefficient was 1.42 with a standard error of 0.14. For ln(n+g+d), the coefficient was -1.97 with a standard error of 0.56. This recollection served as a baseline against which I would compare my own recalculations. The R-squared value of 0.59 indicated that the model explained a significant portion of the variation in ln(Y/L) for this sample. Finally, my immediate action was to re-run the regression with the `se="classical"` option enabled. My objective here was to empirically verify whether the standard errors generated by this specific option in my current analytical environment were identical or very close to the standard errors reported in the original MRW paper. This verification is not merely a matter of academic curiosity; it's essential for ensuring the reproducibility of key findings and for understanding the precise statistical foundations of the presented results, especially when interpreting their significance and robustness.

    Chamadas pedidas
    • infer.ols
      {
        "controls": [
          "lngd"
        ],
        "dataset": "growthdj",
        "se": "classical",
        "subset": "oil == 'no'",
        "x": [
          "ls"
        ],
        "y": "ly"
      }
  12. 11Ferramenta
    infer.olsv0.1.0call_7dd1916cdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

    Motivo: I will estimate the regression with classical standard errors to compare with the textbook Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) specification.

    Argumentos
    {
      "cluster": null,
      "controls": [
        "lngd"
      ],
      "dataset": "growthdj",
      "fe": [],
      "intercept": true,
      "level": 0.95,
      "se": "classical",
      "subset": "oil == 'no'",
      "weights": null,
      "x": [
        "ls"
      ],
      "y": "ly"
    }
    Figuras call_7dd1916c
    ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
    coef.ls
    Coefficient on ls in the regression of ly
    1,42401 1.4240142833694190,1431060.143105816497321,13991 – 1,70812
    Diagnósticos
    • n_obs = 9898
    • k = 33
    • r2 = 0,6008650.6008648011032094
    • df_resid = 9595
    • se_type = "classical"
    • n_clusters = —
    Tabelas (1)
    {
      "coefficients": [
        {
          "ci_high": 8.574302070149807,
          "ci_low": 2.285464121413495,
          "coef": 5.429883095781651,
          "p": 0.0008999523718049453,
          "se": 1.5838898803304136,
          "t": 3.4281948279440546,
          "term": "Intercept"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 1.708115249178197,
          "ci_low": 1.1399133175606408,
          "coef": 1.424014283369419,
          "p": 2.104644525379704e-16,
          "se": 0.14310581649732,
          "t": 9.950778509384257,
          "term": "ls"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -0.8713597174283383,
          "ci_low": -3.108189251784035,
          "coef": -1.9897744846061867,
          "p": 0.0006385352057009347,
          "se": 0.5633618948953983,
          "t": -3.531964981365373,
          "term": "lngd"
        }
      ]
    }
    Digests dos dados
    growthdj e3f509733efe06358f9503c526bd45111b6a64feb75b292419aae56055b598f2
    sha256 do resultado
    5d0ad0ba7dca3913dc9a7d33df76145429cc73d89b5e5eb9723f418fec8ed6db
  13. 12Turno do modelo
    call_f8fd1f2dgemini-3.8-flashFim: STOP10.935 ms16037 de entrada · 32 de saída · 984 de raciocínio · 12593 em cache
    Texto visível

    I will load the reporting-numbers skill to follow best reporting practices.

    Resumo do raciocínio, como declarado pelo modelo

    **My Thought Process Regarding the Solow Growth Model Analysis** I've been asked to analyze the relationship between the investment share and income per working-age person in 1985 within the Solow growth model, specifically for non-oil-producing countries. I need to hold population growth, technological progress, and depreciation constant at a combined rate of 0.05. Crucially, I also need to report the elasticity of income with respect to the investment share. First, I encountered a slight ambiguity in the instructions regarding the language of the response. The user's question is clearly in English, and the instructions state, "Write the answer in the language of the question." However, there's a parenthetical note: "(Portuguese: decimal comma)". My understanding is that "the language of the question" should take precedence. Since the question is in English, I should respond in English. The note about the decimal comma seems to be a default instruction that doesn't apply when the question itself is not in Portuguese. I'll proceed with standard English conventions for numbers, using a decimal point. Now, let's break down the core task. The user wants to understand how income per working-age person (which I'll represent as $Y/L$) varies with the investment share ($I/Y$). The Solow model, as often formulated and as implied by the variables I'm likely to be working with, posits a relationship where capital accumulation, driven by investment, is a key determinant of output. Specifically, in the context of the model and considering the data, I expect to use a log-log specification. This is because if the model is specified as $Y/L = A \cdot (I/Y)^\alpha \cdot (\dots)^{1-\alpha}$ (simplified), taking the natural logarithm of both sides yields $\ln(Y/L) = \ln A + \alpha \ln(I/Y) + \dots$. In this formulation, the coefficient on $\ln(I/Y)$ directly represents the elasticity of income per working-age person with respect to the investment share. I've been provided with the results of an OLS regression conducted on the non-oil-producing countries sample. The dependent variable is the log of 1985 GDP per working-age person (let's call this `ly`), and one of the key independent variables is the log of the investment share (let's call this `ls`). Another independent variable is the log of the combined growth rate of the working-age population, technological progress, and depreciation, which is fixed at 0.05 (let's call this `lngd`). This setup aligns perfectly with the theoretical underpinnings of the Solow model, particularly the augmented version by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992), which incorporates human capital and population growth. The core of the user's question is about the elasticity. In a log-log regression, the coefficient of an independent variable directly measures the elasticity of the dependent variable with respect to that independent variable. Therefore, the coefficient on `ls` (the log of the investment share) will be my direct answer for the elasticity. Looking at the provided regression results: * The coefficient estimate for `ls` is **1.42401**. This is the elasticity I need to report. * I also need to consider the uncertainty surrounding this estimate. I have two sets of standard errors: * Robust (HC1) standard error: This gives a 95% confidence interval of [1.16204, 1.68599]. * Classical standard error: This gives a 95% confidence interval of [1.13991, 1.70812]. The robust standard errors are generally preferred as they are less sensitive to potential heteroskedasticity in the error terms. The interval from the robust standard errors is [1.16204, 1.68599]. The model also includes `lngd` (log of population growth + technology + depreciation) with a coefficient of -1.98977. This coefficient is negative, which is consistent with the Solow model's prediction that higher population growth rates (and associated factors like technological progress and depreciation) lead to lower steady-state income per capita, holding other factors constant. The constant term is 5.42988. The R-squared is 0.600864801103209, indicating that about 60% of the variation in log GDP per working-age person is explained by the included variables. The sample size is 98 observations. So, to summarize my findings: the elasticity of income per working-age person with respect to the investment share, within this specific Solow model framework for non-oil economies, is estimated to be 1.42401. This means that a 1% increase in the investment share is associated with approximately a 1.424% increase in income per working-age person, holding population growth, technological progress, and depreciation constant. The uncertainty around this estimate is captured by the confidence interval [1.16204, 1.68599].

    Chamadas pedidas
    • load_skill (meta-ferramenta)
      {
        "name": "reporting-numbers"
      }
  14. 13Habilidade
    reporting-numbers
  15. 14Turno do modelo
    call_a0577841gemini-3.8-flashFim: STOP10.902 ms17489 de entrada · 427 de saída · 564 de raciocínio · 12822 em cache
    Resumo do raciocínio, como declarado pelo modelo

    **My Thought Process on the Regression Analysis** Alright, let's break down my thinking as I worked through this regression output. My primary goal was to extract the key findings accurately and present them in a clear, first-person narrative, as if I were thinking aloud about the results. First, I focused on the core instruction: "Write numbers as the tool stated them (you may round to fewer digits; Portuguese answers use a decimal comma). Give the interval with its level when the tool reported one." Since the question was in English, I knew my output needed to be in English and adhere to standard decimal notation. Then came the crucial step of verifying the figures. I saw that the tool provided two potential sources for the coefficient estimate: `call_c293748b:coef.ls` and `call_7dd1916c:coef.ls`. A quick glance revealed that both pointed to the same central estimate: `1.42401`. This consistency was reassuring. I decided to cite `call_c293748b:coef.ls` as it was explicitly marked as "robust," which I generally prefer in econometrics, but I also wanted to acknowledge the classical standard error and confidence interval for completeness. Next, I meticulously reviewed the caveats. This is where the real analytical work happens. I recognized the inherent limitations of a cross-sectional OLS analysis applied to countries. The key concern that immediately jumped out was the assumption of orthogonality between the error term (representing technological differences and country-specific shocks) and the regressors (investment rate and population growth). I know this assumption can easily be violated due to omitted variable bias – think about factors like human capital, institutional quality, or even geographical endowments that influence both investment and growth but aren't explicitly in the model. Then there's the potential for reverse causality, where growth might influence investment, not just the other way around. I also recalled the seminal work by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992). Their contribution about augmenting the Solow model with human capital was fresh in my mind. They highlighted that without schooling, the standard Solow model predicted an implausibly high capital share ($\alpha \approx 0.60$) to fit the data. This underscores the importance of considering broader factors beyond just physical capital and labor. With these foundational checks complete, I began assembling the response. I knew I had to state the estimated elasticity clearly. So, I wrote down: "The estimated elasticity is 1.42401." Then, I added the associated statistical information, ensuring I specified the standard error and confidence interval. I opted to present the robust standard error first: "(SE: 0.131962 with HC1 robust standard errors, 95% CI: [1.16204, 1.68599])" and then followed with the classical one: "or classical SE: 0.143106, 95% CI: [1.13991, 1.70812]." This provides a comprehensive view of the precision of the estimate. I also made sure to include other vital pieces of information from the output: the number of observations ("98 non-oil countries"), the R-squared ("$R^2$: 0.600864801103209"), the coefficient on $\ln(n + g + \delta)$ ("-1.98977"), and the intercept ("5.42988"). These provide context and allow for a fuller interpretation of the model's fit and specific parameter estimates. Finally, I did a quick mental sweep to ensure everything was clear, logical, and directly addressed the initial instructions. Yes, all figures were written as reported (with appropriate decimal notation), the language was English as per the question, and the confidence intervals were included with their levels. The robustness of the estimate and the caveats were also carefully considered. I felt confident that the summary I was about to produce would be a "fulsome" account of my thought process.

    Chamadas pedidas
    • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
      {
        "answer": "In the cross-country regression of the textbook Solow growth model (Mankiw, Romer, and Weil, 1992) for the 98 non-oil-producing countries, the estimated elasticity of 1985 real GDP per working-age person with respect to the investment share is 1.42401 (heteroskedasticity-robust standard error of 0.131962; 95% CI [1.16204, 1.68599]; classical standard error of 0.143106, 95% CI [1.13991, 1.70812]).\n\nThis estimate comes from an ordinary least squares regression of the log of 1985 GDP per working-age person on the log of the investment share and the log of the effective population growth rate (popgrowth + 0.05), with an intercept of 5.42988 and an R² of 0.600864801103209. Holding population growth, depreciation, and technological growth constant, higher investment rates are strongly positively associated with income per working-age person.",
        "caveats": [
          "Cross-country OLS assumes that country-specific technology levels and unobserved factors are uncorrelated with saving and population growth rates; omitted factors such as institutions, human capital, or geographic traits could bias the estimate.",
          "Under the textbook Solow model, an elasticity of approximately 1.42 implies an implied physical capital share of output around 0.6, which is higher than the standard national accounts capital share (about one third); MRW address this by augmenting the model with human capital."
        ],
        "figure_refs": [
          "call_c293748b:coef.ls",
          "call_7dd1916c:coef.ls"
        ]
      }
  16. 15Guarda
    resposta aceita
    Números encontrados
    1992 · 98 · 1985 · 1.42401 · 0.131962 · 95% · 1.16204 · 1.68599 · 0.143106 · 95% · 1.13991 · 1.70812 · 1985 · 0.05 · 5.42988 · 0.600864801103209 · 1.42 · 0.6
    Sem lastro
    —
    Não citados
    —
    1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
  17. 16Resposta

    In the cross-country regression of the textbook Solow growth model (Mankiw, Romer, and Weil, 1992) for the 98 non-oil-producing countries, the estimated elasticity of 1985 real GDP per working-age person with respect to the investment share is 1.42401 (heteroskedasticity-robust standard error of 0.131962; 95% CI [1.16204, 1.68599]; classical standard error of 0.143106, 95% CI [1.13991, 1.70812]). This estimate comes from an ordinary least squares regression of the log of 1985 GDP per working-age person on the log of the investment share and the log of the effective population growth rate (popgrowth + 0.05), with an intercept of 5.42988 and an R² of 0.600864801103209. Holding population growth, depreciation, and technological growth constant, higher investment rates are strongly positively associated with income per working-age person. Ressalvas: Cross-country OLS assumes that country-specific technology levels and unobserved factors are uncorrelated with saving and population growth rates; omitted factors such as institutions, human capital, or geographic traits could bias the estimate. Under the textbook Solow model, an elasticity of approximately 1.42 implies an implied physical capital share of output around 0.6, which is higher than the standard national accounts capital share (about one third); MRW address this by augmenting the model with human capital.

    • Cross-country OLS assumes that country-specific technology levels and unobserved factors are uncorrelated with saving and population growth rates; omitted factors such as institutions, human capital, or geographic traits could bias the estimate.
    • Under the textbook Solow model, an elasticity of approximately 1.42 implies an implied physical capital share of output around 0.6, which is higher than the standard national accounts capital share (about one third); MRW address this by augmenting the model with human capital.
    Figuras citadas: call_c293748b:coef.ls, call_7dd1916c:coef.ls · Parada: answered
    Figura da resposta: call_c293748b:coef.ls = 1,424011.424014283369419 (se 0,1319620.13196226184630017)
  18. 17Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
  19. 18Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_c293748b:coef.ls (infer.ols)
  20. 19Pontuação
    #2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatóriaanswer call is infer.ols
  21. 20Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.y = 'ly'
  22. 21Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.x[0] = 'ls'
  23. 22Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.ols.y = 'ly'
  24. 23Pontuação
    #6diagnósticopassouregistrada98 vs 98
  25. 24Pontuação
    #7figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada1.424014283 vs 1.4240142833694192
  26. 25Pontuação
    #8figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.1319622618 vs 0.14310581649732004
  27. 26Pontuação
    #9figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada1.424014283 vs 1.42
  28. 27Pontuação
    #10figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.1319622618 vs 0.14

Épocas × verificações

Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
#012345678910
Época 1passoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoufalhoupassoufalhou

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

Downloads desta tarefa

Pacote da tarefa (.zip)
243,6 KB · sha256 a063e813d64b102c3e091292133bfd01b5b7db1fed566814eb9c7dff21dd6382

O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.

Downloads desta tarefa
ArquivoTamanhosha256
attachments/064f822e424f0ebdcf989a82f9218fc858b36513bb7680fd0fc8aadf40f1e65a.json1,0 KB064f822e424f0ebdcf989a82f9218fc858b36513bb7680fd0fc8aadf40f1e65a
attachments/1d7a70cefc77e52347d9cdaf3f3b0bbea50b13726a7a8dc2572ddf24c1538382.json6,0 KB1d7a70cefc77e52347d9cdaf3f3b0bbea50b13726a7a8dc2572ddf24c1538382
attachments/265d63d091732725cd5b15f51e1686b68b6b276ae88794f6120dc818830a2a97.json5,6 KB265d63d091732725cd5b15f51e1686b68b6b276ae88794f6120dc818830a2a97
attachments/2d4c1b526a0abbd74ced9282ceaade15179e0ab5959f14bff6e28341a87ee462.json3,5 KB2d4c1b526a0abbd74ced9282ceaade15179e0ab5959f14bff6e28341a87ee462
attachments/48ffdfde77bfa526203c8f987d3f26eddffff0babb739cfee60df0c362934c01.json381 B48ffdfde77bfa526203c8f987d3f26eddffff0babb739cfee60df0c362934c01
attachments/508179c515474f7633052e30d6362dd29ce6b2d6f65895ba4a72071f5108b242.json1,0 KB508179c515474f7633052e30d6362dd29ce6b2d6f65895ba4a72071f5108b242
attachments/52d10917afe415ee53adaf19c0eb50a235f8be1703b38e37539baf96cfdc00cd.json1,8 KB52d10917afe415ee53adaf19c0eb50a235f8be1703b38e37539baf96cfdc00cd
attachments/5f2287b1d108ff058a40d457e0d7666d3fbea7dab82acc22f22b9dd10e499826.json1,0 KB5f2287b1d108ff058a40d457e0d7666d3fbea7dab82acc22f22b9dd10e499826
attachments/67d0fcdd4251803222c92cd2ee2eb8707629e3d129c49d36e3e31584d2582498.json4,0 KB67d0fcdd4251803222c92cd2ee2eb8707629e3d129c49d36e3e31584d2582498
attachments/781f60851a85937aee13d176f4f34683dbaa2af9d79eb296115b701f9a03b2eb.json1,9 KB781f60851a85937aee13d176f4f34683dbaa2af9d79eb296115b701f9a03b2eb
attachments/7dd234c300ffd53d24fb36cc06459c8ab31aea92148385ea672814fdddf26fca.json1,9 KB7dd234c300ffd53d24fb36cc06459c8ab31aea92148385ea672814fdddf26fca
attachments/86ff9a038fae4197462dd59d58f7a565dd9bb75ee651e10fd077f2205229846b.json1,8 KB86ff9a038fae4197462dd59d58f7a565dd9bb75ee651e10fd077f2205229846b
attachments/8860aaeaaaf2132db09aa900038b8320d923be8fcadc72cbbf7622b7a6f7d6ff.json1,0 KB8860aaeaaaf2132db09aa900038b8320d923be8fcadc72cbbf7622b7a6f7d6ff
attachments/8ed58e61c1dbd9e61f1e37f394038c8c35168fdfa77a702220fda586d871bc01.json951 B8ed58e61c1dbd9e61f1e37f394038c8c35168fdfa77a702220fda586d871bc01
attachments/8ee0d84c29b117269608a8edad648afadcb20e12f00a5d88b7d64223f4b057e2.json258 B8ee0d84c29b117269608a8edad648afadcb20e12f00a5d88b7d64223f4b057e2
attachments/a44ef51f03df5188f084f1e0227b68df116b942a22fd50c0a88670cf3461fedd.json65,0 KBa44ef51f03df5188f084f1e0227b68df116b942a22fd50c0a88670cf3461fedd
attachments/a8c1158afa5b6564109d4973ca2dd01a2db777581cf1aa5ef97dccf68bc31471.json8,1 KBa8c1158afa5b6564109d4973ca2dd01a2db777581cf1aa5ef97dccf68bc31471
attachments/ac7344f762ab292860c752ab8921618fc83e5a81d680beaaed686407bd7b92fb.json10,2 KBac7344f762ab292860c752ab8921618fc83e5a81d680beaaed686407bd7b92fb
attachments/b0477a00dbf9df588b72f9147d2c9dfd11426fcf02f98dfa960fee1224fdfa69.json409 Bb0477a00dbf9df588b72f9147d2c9dfd11426fcf02f98dfa960fee1224fdfa69
attachments/c90f55232fdf6693dda564071d9a9a916ec138c48d9d2247c22ba2773d52f819.json9,7 KBc90f55232fdf6693dda564071d9a9a916ec138c48d9d2247c22ba2773d52f819
attachments/c9efd4755eab6412b7cb17100ae21c0dd5508065dfa6bc0e08321f9594b6a3f9.json5,5 KBc9efd4755eab6412b7cb17100ae21c0dd5508065dfa6bc0e08321f9594b6a3f9
attachments/d69962efe47bc4e01ccb6997262b8f8be8244bf19569ca03d1375fa83786b1ea.json950 Bd69962efe47bc4e01ccb6997262b8f8be8244bf19569ca03d1375fa83786b1ea
attachments/d89b7b4b2ae96d50c908ef0ca4afbe649308a5ec0066945abd6b3419d404f177.json198 Bd89b7b4b2ae96d50c908ef0ca4afbe649308a5ec0066945abd6b3419d404f177
attachments/de0aad394296e0bc73d35eb420cbf62af0909c6285f20149753edd738a69b055.json393 Bde0aad394296e0bc73d35eb420cbf62af0909c6285f20149753edd738a69b055
attachments/e7ebfe0d1807d1f050a812ba4a7f56d6e842a2e03dff7bf8b30828ccde30db65.json333 Be7ebfe0d1807d1f050a812ba4a7f56d6e842a2e03dff7bf8b30828ccde30db65
sources/mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.paper.json2,1 KB7c575b0eaa19335ba88dc8ca7db2409eede847910b61a4863329bffbc805c3ae
sources/mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.software.json1,2 KB4cd73ffe910fce984c965e80eef199e6134d2324866b41073c323e379711e4ca
specs/paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.design.json9,6 KB91b9b9fe214f1ed8c4672aaf4d987a71acf8cff6e70e8cbcd0ab112b11f29fb0
traces/paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.design.e1.a1.jsonl52,2 KB8d2f68bc5e0b9aa21b6114bf1c822c9595ce4e9dfa01273327dbc62f2abd21c9
trajectories/paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.design.e1.a1.jsonl47,8 KBc2f41298dd0ec04e03a831b52f49e791beaa533504da7edc449197d0be798bb2