Tarefa paper_repro.lmb_2004.tab1_c3.design

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Pergunta feita ao analista

How large is the incumbent party's advantage in U.S. House elections? Comparing seats the Democratic Party barely won with seats it barely lost, estimate the effect of winning a House election on the probability that the same party wins the seat's next election.

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Verificações

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Trajetória

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1. 0Início

   How large is the incumbent party's advantage in U.S. House elections? Comparing seats the Democratic Party barely won with seats it barely lost, estimate the effect of winning a House election on the probability that the same party wins the seat's next election.

   lmb (agent)

   U.S. House elections and roll-call voting, the extract of the data of Lee, Moretti and Butler (2004), 'Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U.S. House', distributed with the causaldata R package: one row per district and congressional session (13,588 rows). Each row pairs a district's election with the one before it for the same seat. Columns: rownames, the row number; state, ICPSR state code; district, district code; id, an election identifier; score, the adjusted ADA voting score of the district's representative in the session that follows the row's election (0 to 100, higher means a more liberal roll-call record); year, year of the election; demvoteshare, the Democratic candidate's share of the two-party vote in the row's election; democrat, 1 if the Democratic candidate won the row's election; lagdemvoteshare, the Democratic share of the two-party vote in the previous election for the same seat; lagdemocrat, 1 if the Democratic candidate won that previous election. In the paper's notation the previous election is time t and the row's election, and the session after it, are time t+1.

   file 58cf9d8ef80b2871a96c00844fae975051a5aac443dff3d317fe92ffd6a516b7 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_7216943dreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Table I, column (3): the difference in the probability of a Democratic win at t+1 between districts the Democrat won and lost at t, among elections with the Democratic share at t strictly between 48 and 52 percent (915 observations), as the coefficient of a regression on the win indicator; heteroskedasticity-robust errors.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "controls": [],
       "dataset": "lmb",
       "fe": [],
       "se": "HC1",
       "subset": "lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52",
       "x": [
         "lagdemocrat"
       ],
       "y": "democrat"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_df7c454ddecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Table I, column (3): the difference in the probability of a Democratic win at t+1 between districts the Democrat won and lost at t, among elections with the Democratic share at t strictly between 48 and 52 percent (915 observations), as the coefficient of a regression on the win indicator; heteroskedasticity-robust errors.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "lmb",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": "lagdemvoteshare > 0.48 and lagdemvoteshare < 0.52",
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "lagdemocrat"
     ],
     "y": "democrat"
   }

   Figuras call_df7c454d

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.lagdemocrat Coefficient on lagdemocrat in the regression of democrat	0,484329	0.48432871476349737	0,02893220.02893215206729027	0,427547 – 0,54111

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 915915
   • k = 22
   • r2 = 0,2347720.2347717230713633
   • df_resid = 913913
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.2811938149509847,
         "ci_low": 0.2023226685654988,
         "coef": 0.24175824175824176,
         "p": 4.715920282942519e-31,
         "se": 0.02009388689657253,
         "t": 12.031432395465465,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5411099640233312,
         "ci_low": 0.42754746550366346,
         "coef": 0.48432871476349737,
         "p": 4.618711084163874e-55,
         "se": 0.02893215206729027,
         "t": 16.740155161532673,
         "term": "lagdemocrat"
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   lmb 6f2fbc93d91c4156cab244ba7581cc8eae45210626f97f85ac8b2d366e4cbc20

   sha256 do resultado

   ffb92ac67dd0cf4a3c6607ca054a4d6a6580ad9daa8162c777be4de01b260b0e

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_97c10c1breferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.lagdemocrat = 0,4843.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_df7c454d:coef.lagdemocrat"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,4843

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.lagdemocrat = 0,4843.

   Figuras citadas: call_df7c454d:coef.lagdemocrat · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_df7c454d:coef.lagdemocrat = 0,4843290.48432871476349737 (se 0,02893220.02893215206729027)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_df7c454d:coef.lagdemocrat (infer.ols)
9. 8Pontuação
   #2uma entrepassouobrigatóriatool_called(infer.ols): ok | tool_called(infer.rdd): answer call is infer.ols
10. 9Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.y = 'democrat'
11. 10Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.x[0] = 'lagdemocrat'
12. 11Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouobrigatórianot applicable: the answer call is infer.ols, not infer.rdd
13. 12Pontuação
    #6argumento igualpassouobrigatórianot applicable: the answer call is infer.ols, not infer.rdd
14. 13Pontuação
    #7argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.ols.y = 'democrat'
15. 14Pontuação
    #8argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.ols.x = ['lagdemocrat']
16. 15Pontuação
    #9argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.ols.controls = []
17. 16Pontuação
    #10argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.ols.fe = []
18. 17Pontuação
    #11diagnósticopassouregistrada915 vs 915
19. 18Pontuação
    #12figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.4843287148 vs 0.4843287147634966
20. 19Pontuação
    #13figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.02893215207 vs 0.02893215206729024
21. 20Pontuação
    #14figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.4843287148 vs 0.48
22. 21Pontuação
    #15figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.02893215207 vs 0.02

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• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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