Tarefa qrdata_socsci.399

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Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the difference in the average causal effect of the Neighbors message on whether the voter voted in the 2006 primary election between those who voted in the 2004 primary election and those who did not? Please round the result to the nearest thousandth.

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Trajetória

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1. 0Início

   What is the difference in the average causal effect of the Neighbors message on whether the voter voted in the 2006 primary election between those who voted in the 2004 primary election and those who did not? Please round the result to the nearest thousandth.

   social (agent)

   Three social scientists conducted an RCT in which they investigated whether social pressure within neighborhoods increases participation. Specifically, during a primary election in the state of Michigan, they randomly assigned registered voters to receive different get-out-the-vote (GOTV) messages and examined whether sending postcards with these messages increased turnout. The researchers exploited the fact that the turnout of individual voters is public information in the United States. The GOTV message of particular interest was designed to induce social pressure by telling voters that after the election their neighbors would be informed about whether they voted in the election or not. The researchers hypothesized that such a namingand-shaming GOTV strategy would increase participation. There are three treatment groups: voters who receive either the social pressure message, the civic duty message, or the Hawthorne effect message. The Hawthorne effect refers to the phenomenon where study subjects behave differently because they know they are being observed by researchers. The experiment also has a control group which consists of those voters receiving no message. The researchers randomly assigned each voter to one of the four groups and examined whether the voter turnout was different across the groups. The data is in the file social.csv. Variable Description hhsize: household size of the voter messages: GOTV messages the voter received (Civic Duty, Control, Neighbors, Hawthorne) sex: sex of the voter (female or male) yearofbirth: year of birth of the voter primary2004: whether the voter voted in the 2004 primary election (1=voted, 0=abstained) primary2006: whether the voter turned out in the 2006 primary election (1=voted, 0=abstained)

   file 3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970 · frame —

   social_neighbors (reference)

   file 3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970 · frame —

   1. filter {"query":"messages in ['Neighbors', 'Control']"}
   2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"messages","value":"Neighbors"},"name":"neighbors","op":"indicator"}
   3. derive {"args":{"columns":["neighbors","primary2004"]},"name":"neighbors_x_primary2004","op":"interaction"}
2. 1Transformação
   social_neighbors · filter {"query":"messages in ['Neighbors', 'Control']"}

   305866 → 229444 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: cbf1b6bbe517 → a47a1a859d3e
3. 2Transformação
   social_neighbors · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"messages","value":"Neighbors"},"name":"neighbors","op":"indicator"}

   229444 → 229444 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: a47a1a859d3e → 2040421ac698
4. 3Transformação
   social_neighbors · derive {"args":{"columns":["neighbors","primary2004"]},"name":"neighbors_x_primary2004","op":"interaction"}

   229444 → 229444 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 2040421ac698 → 730e68d0092d
5. 4Turno do modelo
   call_44397d39referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Over the Neighbors and Control groups, the interaction of the Neighbors message with 2004 turnout: the Neighbors effect among 2004 voters minus the effect among 2004 abstainers.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "controls": [
         "neighbors",
         "primary2004"
       ],
       "dataset": "social_neighbors",
       "x": [
         "neighbors_x_primary2004"
       ],
       "y": "primary2006"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
6. 5Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_3b28e335decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Over the Neighbors and Control groups, the interaction of the Neighbors message with 2004 turnout: the Neighbors effect among 2004 voters minus the effect among 2004 abstainers.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [
       "neighbors",
       "primary2004"
     ],
     "dataset": "social_neighbors",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "neighbors_x_primary2004"
     ],
     "y": "primary2006"
   }

   Figuras call_3b28e335

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.neighbors_x_primary2004 Coefficient on neighbors_x_primary2004 in the regression of primary2006	0,0272291	0.027229078936847978	0,005488320.0054883206313251455	0,0164721 – 0,037986

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 229.444229444
   • k = 44
   • r2 = 0,03077590.03077585240084424
   • df_resid = 229.440229440
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.2395714778936647,
         "ci_low": 0.23464831439974046,
         "coef": 0.23710989614670258,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.001255925507202688,
         "t": 188.79296167398925,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.03798604645607311,
         "ci_low": 0.016472111417622844,
         "coef": 0.027229078936847978,
         "p": 7.008118197841256e-7,
         "se": 0.0054883206313251455,
         "t": 4.961277003649395,
         "term": "neighbors_x_primary2004"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.07578298844925509,
         "ci_low": 0.06280936079091425,
         "coef": 0.06929617462008467,
         "p": 2.9992603358974017e-97,
         "se": 0.0033096422487632316,
         "t": 20.937663170688527,
         "term": "neighbors"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.15293170284357596,
         "ci_low": 0.14445844190750565,
         "coef": 0.1486950723755408,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.0021615744737967743,
         "t": 68.79016854522716,
         "term": "primary2004"
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   social_neighbors 730e68d0092da53417e6bc6f3cfcee61fbfea065f642be09ca39cc22dfcbaa37

   sha256 do resultado

   a977b9e3d9d89440efa28bb80e4040512f35b98a98bd5d75490ecd496b58f752

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
7. 6Turno do modelo
   call_8b734afareferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.neighbors_x_primary2004 = 0,02723. Caminho de referência inferido à mão.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_3b28e335:coef.neighbors_x_primary2004"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
8. 7Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,02723

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
9. 8Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.neighbors_x_primary2004 = 0,02723. Caminho de referência inferido à mão.

   Figuras citadas: call_3b28e335:coef.neighbors_x_primary2004 · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_3b28e335:coef.neighbors_x_primary2004 = 0,02722910.027229078936847978 (se 0,005488320.0054883206313251455)
10. 9Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
11. 10Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.027 in (0.02619, 0.02781)?

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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