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Tarefa crb_papers.q090

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): ols (regression)

Pergunta feita ao analista

Among individuals whose schooling increased due to compulsory schooling laws and who were born near the reform thresholds, what is the effect of one additional year of completed secondary schooling on the probability of saying at least one immigrant group should be allowed 'none' to enter?

Resposta

Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.eduyrs = -0,02762.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q090.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 90 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['90'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 90: effect -0.0977845, standard_error 0.0452098
Valor como publicado
-0.0977844845011214
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.045209848588741615
Valor
-0,0977845-0.0977844845011214 (se 0,04520980.045209848588741615)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: -0,0977845-0.0977844845011214 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.5209848588741616e-8
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,04520980.045209848588741615 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.5209848588741616e-8

crb_papers.q090.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 90
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/RDD/cavaille_marshall_2018/question_1/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 731 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
9c65b536483c862b89a43f132dd0f002ef8929b6dd00929320a13f5c63a4b98a (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/RDD/cavaille_marshall_2018/question_1/estimation.py
Licença
MIT

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    -0.02761742518 in [-0.1863957877, -0.009173181267]?
    obrigatóriapassou[-0.18639578773505497,-0.00917318126718783]-0,0276174-0.027617425177981686interval · [-0.18639578773505497, -0.00917318126718783]—call_bdcd10d6
    2figura da resposta próxima
    -0.02761742518 vs -0.0977844845011214
    registradafalhou-0,0977845-0.0977844845011214-0,0276174-0.027617425177981686relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.5209848588741616e-8crb_papers.q090.goldcall_bdcd10d6
    3figura da resposta próxima
    0.0007231964855 vs 0.045209848588741615
    registradafalhou0,04520980.0452098485887416150,0007231960.0007231964854532023relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.5209848588741616e-8crb_papers.q090.goldcall_bdcd10d6

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    Nenhum caminho de referência registrado para esta tarefa.

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      Among individuals whose schooling increased due to compulsory schooling laws and who were born near the reform thresholds, what is the effect of one additional year of completed secondary schooling on the probability of saying at least one immigrant group should be allowed 'none' to enter?

      ds_0059 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | |---------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | (index) | Row index from the source file. | | cntry | Country code (ESS two-letter code for country of interview). | | freehms | ESS item: attitude toward whether gay and lesbian people should be free to live as they wish (Likert). | | euftf | Feeling thermometer toward the European Union (0–10 scale). | | blgetmg | Self-identifies as belonging to a minority group in the country. | | facntr | Father’s country of birth (coded; 0 = country of interview, 1 = other). | | mocntr | Mother’s country of birth (coded; 0 = country of interview, 1 = other). | | ipeqopt | Personal values: important that people are treated equally and have equal opportunities (1–6). | | ipudrst | Personal values: important to understand different people (1–6). | | year | Survey year. | | plus6 | Indicator: completed at least 6 years of education (1 = yes). | | plus7 | Indicator: completed at least 7 years of education (1 = yes). | | plus8 | Indicator: completed at least 8 years of education (1 = yes). | | plus9 | Indicator: completed at least 9 years of education (1 = yes). | | plus10 | Indicator: completed at least 10 years of education (1 = yes). | | plus11 | Indicator: completed at least 11 years of education (1 = yes). | | plus12 | Indicator: completed at least 12 years of education (1 = yes). | | plus13 | Indicator: completed at least 13 years of education (1 = yes). | | close_far_right | Indicator: respondent reports feeling closest to a far-right party (any closeness level). | | running | Cohort index: birth year distance from a country-specific reference cohort (negative = earlier). | | reform | Country-specific label for the relevant compulsory schooling change (reference point for cohorts). | | eduyrs_actual | Completed years of education, capped at 13 to reflect secondary schooling. | | eduyrs | Standardized (z-score) years of education based on eduyrs_actual. | | any_tertiary | Indicator: has any tertiary (post-secondary) education (1 = yes). | | round_1 | Indicator: European Social Survey Round 1 (2002) sample (1 = yes). | | round_2 | Indicator: European Social Survey Round 2 (1 = yes). | | round_3 | Indicator: European Social Survey Round 3 (1 = yes). | | round_4 | Indicator: European Social Survey Round 4 (1 = yes). | | round_5 | Indicator: European Social Survey Round 5 (1 = yes). | | round_6 | Indicator: European Social Survey Round 6 (1 = yes). | | round_7 | Indicator: European Social Survey Round 7 (1 = yes). | | female | Gender indicator (1 = female, 0 = male). | | anti_immi1_or | Binary: “none” on at least one of the three immigrant inflow items (OR aggregator). | | anti_immi2_or | Binary: “none” or “few” on at least one of the three immigrant inflow items (OR aggregator). | | anti_immi1_and | Binary: “none” on all three immigrant inflow items (AND aggregator). | | anti_immi2_and | Binary: “none” or “few” on all three immigrant inflow items (AND aggregator). | | anti_immi1_ave | Mean of the three “none” indicators across immigrant inflow items (0–1). | | anti_immi2_ave | Mean of the three “none or few” indicators across immigrant inflow items (0–1). | | imdfetn_dummy | Binary: restrictive response (“none or few”) for immigrants of a different race/ethnic group. | | imdfetn_dummy_strong | Binary: most restrictive response (“none”) for immigrants of a different race/ethnic group. | | imsmetn_dummy | Binary: restrictive response (“none or few”) for immigrants of the same race/ethnic group. | | imsmetn_dummy_strong | Binary: most restrictive response (“none”) for immigrants of the same race/ethnic group. | | impcntr_dummy | Binary: restrictive response (“none or few”) for immigrants from poorer countries outside Europe. | | impcntr_dummy_strong | Binary: most restrictive response (“none”) for immigrants from poorer countries outside Europe. | | imbgeco_dummy | Binary: rating 0–4 on “immigration is bad or good for the economy” (indicates negative view). | | imueclt_dummy | Binary: rating 0–4 on “cultural life undermined or enriched” (indicates negative view). | | imwbcnt_dummy | Binary: rating 0–4 on “country made worse or better place to live” (indicates negative view). | | mother_secondary | Indicator: mother completed secondary education (1 = yes). | | father_secondary | Indicator: father completed secondary education (1 = yes). | | live_with_partner | Indicator: currently living with a partner/spouse (1 = yes). | | never_married | Indicator: never married (1 = yes). | | ever_divorced | Indicator: ever divorced/separated (1 = yes). | | child_at_home | Indicator: has a child currently living in the household (1 = yes). | | ever_child_at_home | Indicator: ever had a child living in the household (1 = yes). | | imdfetn | Standardized score from “allow immigrants of a different race/ethnic group” item (higher = more restrictive). | | imsmetn | Standardized score from “allow immigrants of the same race/ethnic group” item (higher = more restrictive). | | impcntr | Standardized score from “allow immigrants from poorer countries outside Europe” item (higher = more restrictive). | | imbgeco | Standardized score from “immigration is bad/good for the economy” item (higher = more negative). | | imueclt | Standardized score from “cultural life undermined/enriched by immigration” item (higher = more negative).| | imwbcnt | Standardized score from “country made worse/better place to live by immigration” item (higher = more negative). | | close_far_right_scale | Closeness scale (1–4) to the far-right party identified as closest; missing if none named. | | scale | Composite anti-immigration scale (average of standardized items; across-country standardization). | | cont_scale | Composite continuous anti-immigration scale built from the underlying continuous items. | | factor | Latent factor score summarizing the six immigration attitude items. | | scale_within | Composite anti-immigration scale standardized within country. | | cont_scale_within | Within-country composite continuous scale from the immigration items. | | factor_within | Within-country latent factor score summarizing the six immigration attitude items. | Data Description: This dataset is constructed from the European Social Survey (ESS) rounds 1–7 (2002–2014) for Denmark, France, Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland), the Netherlands, and Sweden. It merges original ESS responses with harmonized education measures, demographic controls, party closeness, personal values, and a detailed set of immigration-attitude recodes. The file also includes composite indices and standardized versions of key attitudes to facilitate cross-country and within-country comparisons. The ESS collects nationally representative samples of residents aged 15+ using random probability designs and face-to-face interviews, typically around 2,000 respondents per country per round. For this study’s context, respondents’ years of education are capped at 13 to reflect secondary schooling, and multiple derived variables summarize immigration preferences: binary indicators for restrictive choices, averages across items, and composite scales combining economic, cultural, and overall livability assessments. Additional fields identify survey round, country, parental background, household structure, and a cohort index anchored to country-specific education policy reference points.

      file d568580ddd9060f4af0eb14c5e000e93306d4322f1c6e4c7c56789ac6af0f78a · frame —
    2. 1Turno do modelo
      call_17a1961anaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Texto visível

      Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

      Chamadas pedidas
      • infer.ols
        {
          "dataset": "ds_0059",
          "x": [
            "eduyrs"
          ],
          "y": "anti_immi1_or"
        }
    3. 2Ferramenta
      infer.olsv0.1.0call_bdcd10d6decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

      Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

      Argumentos
      {
        "cluster": null,
        "controls": [],
        "dataset": "ds_0059",
        "fe": [],
        "intercept": true,
        "level": 0.95,
        "se": "HC1",
        "subset": null,
        "weights": null,
        "x": [
          "eduyrs"
        ],
        "y": "anti_immi1_or"
      }
      Figuras call_bdcd10d6
      ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
      coef.eduyrs
      Coefficient on eduyrs in the regression of anti_immi1_or
      -0,0276174 -0.0276174251779816860,0007231960.0007231964854532023-0,0290349 – -0,0262
      Diagnósticos
      • n_obs = 66.80466804
      • k = 22
      • r2 = 0,02604450.026044489613302413
      • df_resid = 66.80266802
      • se_type = "HC1"
      • n_clusters = —
      Tabelas (1)
      {
        "coefficients": [
          {
            "ci_high": 0.17653749105918007,
            "ci_low": 0.17086685579981706,
            "coef": 0.17370217342949856,
            "p": 0,
            "se": 0.0014465909985190459,
            "t": 120.07690743778093,
            "term": "Intercept"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.02619996043015154,
            "ci_low": -0.02903488992581183,
            "coef": -0.027617425177981686,
            "p": 0,
            "se": 0.0007231964854532023,
            "t": -38.187996946189244,
            "term": "eduyrs"
          }
        ]
      }
      Digests dos dados
      ds_0059 4f144871f4e518bfe4b6a2a0e86791677492429d810b5b620628d1447411f254
      sha256 do resultado
      cce7c7d22b3279b80baa8c268656a1b8284b60733315d2700c9b9b39798c5593
    4. 3Turno do modelo
      call_1bdf55fenaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.eduyrs = -0,02762.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": [
            "call_bdcd10d6:coef.eduyrs"
          ]
        }
    5. 4Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      -0,02762
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    6. 5Resposta

      Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.eduyrs = -0,02762.

      Figuras citadas: call_bdcd10d6:coef.eduyrs · Parada: answered
      Figura da resposta: call_bdcd10d6:coef.eduyrs = -0,0276174-0.027617425177981686 (se 0,0007231960.0007231964854532023)
    7. 6Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    8. 7Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-0.02761742518 in [-0.1863957877, -0.009173181267]?
    9. 8Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada-0.02761742518 vs -0.0977844845011214
    10. 9Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.0007231964855 vs 0.045209848588741615

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    Época 1passoupassoufalhoufalhou

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