Tarefa causcibench_real.q010

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Does winning an election in a given period influence the party's subsequent electoral success?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Does winning an election in a given period influence the party's subsequent electoral success?

   lee_randomized_experiments (agent)

   This dataset includes information on U.S. House of Representatives elections from 1946 to 1998. Most of the data come from the Historical Election Returns compiled by the ICPSR, with results from 1992 to 1998 obtained from the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Missing values were imputed using average electoral outcomes by state and year or by state and decade. The dataset includes both vote share data and candidate characteristics. Variable Information: demsharenext: Democratic vote share in the next election demshareprev: Democratic vote share in the previous election demwinprev: 1 if Democrats held the seat in the previous election, 0 otherwise difdemshare: Difference in vote share between the Democratic and Republican candidates difdemshare2 to difdemshare4: Squared, cubed, and fourth-power of the vote share difference rdifdemshare to rdifdemshare4: Transformed vote share differences for observations above a set threshold demofficeexp: Political experience of the Democratic candidate othelectexp: Electoral experience of the opposing candidate use: 1 if the observation is included in the analysis, 0 otherwise right: 1 if the Democratic candidate's vote share is above the threshold, 0 otherwise

   file ceb5dd7ef24d21d461cb986e95dde201c67e773f2c40e26b8a7e6278b9036813 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_8b762b0freferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "controls": [
         "difdemshare",
         "demofficeexp",
         "demelectexp",
         "othofficeexp",
         "othelectexp"
       ],
       "dataset": "lee_randomized_experiments",
       "x": [
         "right"
       ],
       "y": "demsharenext"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_12e2f1d8decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [
       "difdemshare",
       "demofficeexp",
       "demelectexp",
       "othofficeexp",
       "othelectexp"
     ],
     "dataset": "lee_randomized_experiments",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "right"
     ],
     "y": "demsharenext"
   }

   Figuras call_12e2f1d8

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.right Coefficient on right in the regression of demsharenext	0,114237	0.11423703639468429	0,005542080.005542081258111553	0,103373 – 0,125101

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 6.5586558
   • k = 77
   • r2 = 0,6704420.6704418606711513
   • df_resid = 6.5516551
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.45160559752425383,
         "ci_low": 0.43702715336779824,
         "coef": 0.44431637544602604,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.003718372062506744,
         "t": 119.4921777533176,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.1251013233425389,
         "ci_low": 0.10337274944682967,
         "coef": 0.11423703639468429,
         "p": 1.6109271525258846e-91,
         "se": 0.005542081258111553,
         "t": 20.61265995107589,
         "term": "right"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.34531665070109907,
         "ci_low": 0.3160775786576976,
         "coef": 0.33069711467939833,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.00745770587402924,
         "t": 44.343008462028514,
         "term": "difdemshare"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.013553964609498276,
         "ci_low": 0.001099945824087679,
         "coef": 0.007326955216792977,
         "p": 0.02110816070284999,
         "se": 0.0031765169877266087,
         "t": 2.3066003566493696,
         "term": "demofficeexp"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.0016919129561254144,
         "ci_low": -0.013845916262791608,
         "coef": -0.007768914609458511,
         "p": 0.012230971436038471,
         "se": 0.003099995161219575,
         "t": -2.5061053986942765,
         "term": "demelectexp"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.0034211574429810535,
         "ci_low": -0.011198527588453858,
         "coef": -0.0038886850727364026,
         "p": 0.2970548664413075,
         "se": 0.003728890943377066,
         "t": -1.0428529908183959,
         "term": "othofficeexp"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.01080616409952033,
         "ci_low": -0.0032602004683297855,
         "coef": 0.003772981815595272,
         "p": 0.2930101164747462,
         "se": 0.003587761250021146,
         "t": 1.0516256664439516,
         "term": "othelectexp"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 1 rows were dropped because one of 'demsharenext', 'right', 'difdemshare', 'demofficeexp', 'demelectexp', 'othofficeexp', 'othelectexp' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   lee_randomized_experiments 21a560c5370924e053162793eea8c7ca51a065d930a3dc9086ce8e8b8ccc3c0c

   sha256 do resultado

   7bd950c7b537ffd80886908d9d223cd5541c69b8b82c78619ad4f8348dacaa84

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_3f9ef69dreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.right = 0,1142.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_12e2f1d8:coef.right"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,1142

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.right = 0,1142.

   Figuras citadas: call_12e2f1d8:coef.right · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_12e2f1d8:coef.right = 0,1142370.11423703639468429 (se 0,005542080.005542081258111553)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.1142370364 vs 0.076

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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