Tarefa causcibench_real.q047

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the effect of having a Democratic governor on a state's unionization rate?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the effect of having a Democratic governor on a state's unionization rate?

   leigh_estimating_the_impact (agent)

   The dataset is a state-year panel spanning mid-20th century to early-21st century state politics and economics, combining election results, legislative composition, fiscal policy, labor markets, distributional statistics, crime, education, and demographics for each state and year. The variables are: statename: State name string identifier for observations and merges across sources stcode: Two-letter state postal abbreviation used as a compact state identifier stfips: Numeric state FIPS code used for merges and fixed effects year: Calendar year aligning outcomes, political control, and policy variables within each state statename/stcode/stfips/year naming: Core keys establishing a state-year panel structure spanning mid-20th to early-21st centuries house_dems: Number of Democratic seats in the state lower (house) chamber in a given year house_total: Total seats in the state lower chamber in a given year house_pctdem: Democratic seat share in the lower chamber, house_dems/house_total house_margin: Lower-chamber seat margin (e.g., Democratic minus Republican seats) house_cntrl: Lower-chamber party control indicator based on majority senate_dems: Number of Democratic seats in the state upper (senate) chamber in a given year senate_total: Total seats in the state upper chamber in a given year senate_pctdem: Democratic seat share in the upper chamber, senate_dems/senate_total senate_margin: Upper-chamber seat margin (e.g., Democratic minus Republican seats) senate_cntrl: Upper-chamber party control indicator based on majority total_dems: Total Democratic seats across both chambers in a given year total_pctdem: Democratic seat share across both chambers in a given year total_margin: Combined legislative seat margin across both chambers total_cntrl: Overall legislature party control indicator based on combined chamber majorities divided: Indicator that governor's party and legislative control differ in a state-year house_switch: Indicator that lower-chamber party control changed relative to prior year senate_switch: Indicator that upper-chamber party control changed relative to prior year governor: Party of the sitting governor in the state-year (categorical or binary as coded) gov_dem/gov_dem2/gov_dem_p: Alternative codings or interactions of a Democratic-governor indicator used for robustness or subgrouping as defined in the data termyear/sterm/term: Indicators for gubernatorial term timing or tenure alignment with outcomes as defined in the data dem_voteshare/voteshare: Two-party Democratic vote share in the most recent gubernatorial election retained for political context poverty_pct: Share of persons below the official poverty line in a state-year povertylineratio: Income-to-poverty-line ratio measure summarizing depth of poverty in a state-year minwage/fminwage/sminwage: Effective, federal, and state minimum wage levels operative in a state-year cpiy: Consumer price index or price deflator used for inflation adjustment of nominal series pop_noninstitutional: Non-institutional civilian population used as labor-market denominator laborforce: Civilian labor force level (employed plus unemployed) in a state-year employed: Number of employed persons in a state-year unemployed: Number of unemployed persons in a state-year unemploymentrate: Unemployment rate (unemployed/laborforce) in a state-year employment: Total nonfarm employment level in a state-year lnemp: Natural logarithm of employment for elasticity-based specifications employmentgap: Deviation of employment from a benchmark or reference as defined in the data gsp: Gross state product in current or chained dollars as defined in the series employeecomp: Compensation of employees aggregate (wages and supplements) at the state level pop/lnpop: Total resident population and its natural logarithm for scale adjustments persinc_percap/disppersinc_percap: Personal and disposable personal income per capita in a state-year propertyinc: Property income (dividends, interest, rent) aggregate at the state level eitc_s_child1: State earned income tax credit generosity (e.g., percent of federal) for first child where applicable maxbenefit/afdc_max: Maximum cash-assistance benefit (e.g., AFDC/TANF) for a reference family welfarereform: Indicator for major state welfare reform adoption in a state-year afdcwaiver: Indicator for AFDC/TANF policy waivers in a state-year afdc_reca: AFDC/TANF recipiency or caseload indicator in a state-year transfers/ui/famassist/foodstamps: Transfers to persons and components (unemployment insurance, family assistance, SNAP) stinctax/stmotor/stothertax/stnontaxes: State individual income tax, motor-related taxes, other taxes, and non-tax revenues in a state-year strevenue/strevenue_inc/stinctax_inc/stothertax_inc: Total state revenue and year-over-year revenue changes overall and by tax category stax_corpr: State corporate income tax rate or effective measure in a state-year stax_topr/stax_botr: Top and bottom marginal personal income tax rates in a state-year stax_topb/stax_botb: Taxable income thresholds for top and bottom personal income tax brackets in a state-year atr: Average tax rate or analogous aggregate rate measure as defined in the tax series incrate: Incarceration rate per 100,000 population in a state-year vcrime/pcrime: Violent and property crime rates per 100,000 population in a state-year executions: Number of executions carried out in the state-year mrate: All-cause mortality rate per 100,000 population in a state-year fsuicide/msuicide/psuicide: Female, male, and total suicide rates per 100,000 population in a state-year naep_read: NAEP reading assessment metric for the state-year unionization: Union membership or density measure at the state-year level govpower/govbpower/govpower_std: Indices of gubernatorial institutional power and standardized variants used to study moderation by executive authority region: Census region categorical identifier used in grouped analyses and controls regionyr1-regionyr4 naming: Region-by-year interaction indicators (categories 1-4) capturing differential regional trends over time prscore/prscored/prscorer: Policy orientation indices summarizing policy stance and partisan policy bundles as defined in the series redist: Redistribution index summarizing post-fiscal distributional change in a state-year stempwages/stemploy/stempavw: State government employee wage bill or average wages and state-government employment levels house_dem/senate_dem/leg_dem/leg_rep: Indicators for Democratic or Republican legislative control by chamber or overall legislature legterm/legtermyear: Legislative term-related indicators aligning outcomes with legislative cycles as defined in the data all_dem/all_gop: Indicators for unified Democratic or Republican control across relevant state institutions all_dem_pd/all_gop_pg: Auxiliary unified control indicators combining party with dataset-specific dimensions as defined in the series pres_dem/pres_dem2/fsen_dem/fhouse_dem/gov_pres_dem: Federal partisan context indicators (presidential party, congressional party, and governor-president alignment) fdem1/fdem2/dem1: Auxiliary Democratic indicators used in pooled or robustness specifications as defined in the series gini/gini_census_family: Gini coefficients for pre-tax/transfer income (household/family) and census-family series at the state-year level _9050/_5010/_9010/_7525 naming: Pre-tax percentile ratios where _ppqq denotes p-th to q-th percentile income ratio (e.g., _9010 = 90th/10th; _9050 = 90th/50th; _5010 = 50th/10th; _7525 = 75th/25th) _9050_pt/_5010_pt/_9010_pt/_7525_pt naming: Post-tax/transfer counterparts to percentile ratios with _pt suffix indicating post-fiscal distributions ge_m1/ge_0/ge_1/ge_2 naming: Generalized Entropy indices with parameter set k in {-1,0,1,2} for pre-tax distributions, where k indexes sensitivity to different parts of the income distribution ge_m1_pt/ge_0_pt/ge_1_pt/ge_2_pt naming: Post-tax/transfer counterparts to Generalized Entropy indices with _pt suffix indicating post-fiscal distributions atk_05/atk_1/atk_2 naming: Atkinson inequality indices with inequality-aversion parameter epsilon in {0.5,1,2} for pre-tax distributions atk_05_pt/atk_1_pt/atk_2_pt naming: Post-tax/transfer counterparts to Atkinson indices with _pt suffix indicating post-fiscal distributions faminc10-faminc90 naming: Pre-tax family income at selected percentiles where faminc## gives the ##th percentile (## in {10,20,...,90}) in nominal or real terms as defined in the series famincpt10-famincpt90 naming: Post-tax/transfer family income at selected percentiles where famincpt## gives the ##th percentile (## in {10,20,...,90}) mover10-mover90 naming: Family income at selected percentiles among movers where mover## gives the ##th percentile for movers (## in {10,20,...,90}) nonmover10-nonmover90 naming: Family income at selected percentiles among non-movers where nonmover## gives the ##th percentile for non-movers (## in {10,20,...,90}) mean_faminc/sd/cov: Mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of pre-tax family income distribution in a state-year mean_faminc_pt/sd_pt/cov_pt: Mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of post-tax/transfer family income distribution in a state-year gini_nat/gini_nat_white/gini_nat_black/gini_nat_hispanic: National Gini benchmarks overall and by race used for normalization and comparative context nat##th/nat##th_real naming: National ##th percentile income thresholds (## in {20,40,60,80,95}) in nominal (nat##th) and real (nat##th_real) terms for contextual comparison num_families: Number of families used in constructing the state-level distributional statistics linetitle: Line-item descriptor labeling fiscal series entries for reconciliation and documentation Istcode##: State fixed-effect dummies where Istcode## denotes a specific state category (## indexes state codes) to absorb time-invariant state heterogeneity Iyear_####: Year fixed-effect dummies where _Iyear_#### denotes a calendar year indicator to absorb common shocks and national trends

   file 29dc7a900c78bf24b67811856cb3d85d5759a0288211332d090607e89b6e451d · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_ddc78e7freferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "controls": [
         "dem_voteshare",
         "leg_dem",
         "leg_rep",
         "prscore",
         "lnpop",
         "pop15",
         "pop65",
         "black"
       ],
       "dataset": "leigh_estimating_the_impact",
       "x": [
         "gov_dem"
       ],
       "y": "unionization"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_10f0fbd7decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [
       "dem_voteshare",
       "leg_dem",
       "leg_rep",
       "prscore",
       "lnpop",
       "pop15",
       "pop65",
       "black"
     ],
     "dataset": "leigh_estimating_the_impact",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "gov_dem"
     ],
     "y": "unionization"
   }

   Figuras call_10f0fbd7

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.gov_dem Coefficient on gov_dem in the regression of unionization	-0,0104269	-0.010426889789495634	0,004276990.004276990493205138	-0,0188151 – -0,00203873

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 1.8851885
   • k = 1010
   • r2 = 0,4675970.46759681625564553
   • df_resid = 1.8751875
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": -0.03655214871221868,
         "ci_low": -0.18878524571839717,
         "coef": -0.11266869721530792,
         "p": 0.003738808013223757,
         "se": 0.03881061810099834,
         "t": -2.903037950132768,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.002038727728378492,
         "ci_low": -0.018815051850612774,
         "coef": -0.010426889789495634,
         "p": 0.014865054453807043,
         "se": 0.004276990493205138,
         "t": -2.437903429072581,
         "term": "gov_dem"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.07035857469651222,
         "ci_low": 0.0059092699699731036,
         "coef": 0.038133922333242656,
         "p": 0.02040036750824722,
         "se": 0.016430837983379257,
         "t": 2.320875074772043,
         "term": "dem_voteshare"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.025953440546594157,
         "ci_low": -0.041727053261071845,
         "coef": -0.033840246903833,
         "p": 7.674663095688615e-17,
         "se": 0.0040213571895591094,
         "t": -8.415130839830507,
         "term": "leg_dem"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.01969848793939935,
         "ci_low": -0.03844550605606685,
         "coef": -0.0290719969977331,
         "p": 1.428191827545383e-9,
         "se": 0.00477940326359484,
         "t": -6.082767114291696,
         "term": "leg_rep"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.1618204284653685,
         "ci_low": -0.19407415710335088,
         "coef": -0.1779472927843597,
         "p": 6.857849325336444e-93,
         "se": 0.008222831756823309,
         "t": -21.6406340354342,
         "term": "prscore"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.025066631598796445,
         "ci_low": 0.017108388691962875,
         "coef": 0.02108751014537966,
         "p": 1.2201337876152933e-24,
         "se": 0.002028890775305985,
         "t": 10.393615270984398,
         "term": "lnpop"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.6442304842977157,
         "ci_low": 0.4218219835399527,
         "coef": 0.5330262339188342,
         "p": 1.5235165811464945e-20,
         "se": 0.05670127951857151,
         "t": 9.400603274644812,
         "term": "pop15"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.8086038559834511,
         "ci_low": -1.1229870068111056,
         "coef": -0.9657954313972783,
         "p": 2.9206651263061723e-32,
         "se": 0.08014948551999473,
         "t": -12.04992677284676,
         "term": "pop65"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.28578177598945786,
         "ci_low": -0.35611414017264986,
         "coef": -0.32094795808105386,
         "p": 2.8436178755361525e-66,
         "se": 0.017930677232056935,
         "t": -17.899377359113615,
         "term": "black"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 4853 rows were dropped because one of 'unionization', 'gov_dem', 'dem_voteshare', 'leg_dem', 'leg_rep', 'prscore', 'lnpop', 'pop15', 'pop65', 'black' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   leigh_estimating_the_impact f91ff21282f3cde7127c7cb09e0a44d54eb40d66c98188a5cf7a3a31329e3b6e

   sha256 do resultado

   987f1471c09fa66c9dd4cd2aef53a5c4207871b86c17e9f8fcf2478d924ee5cb

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_fab61e71referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.gov_dem = -0,01043.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_10f0fbd7:coef.gov_dem"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,01043

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.gov_dem = -0,01043.

   Figuras citadas: call_10f0fbd7:coef.gov_dem · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_10f0fbd7:coef.gov_dem = -0,0104269-0.010426889789495634 (se 0,004276990.004276990493205138)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória-0.01042688979 vs -0.277

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

Downloads desta tarefa